RRosternomics
𝕏

Guardians CLE

‹ ›

GM: Mark Shapiro

Overview

WINDOW ↘ cooling
cheap & winning · year 4 in this regime · payroll 0.76× league · TAB +11.2
+11.2TAB — talent above budget2nd/30
+17.5WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)1st/30
7.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars10th/30
-4.0dead WAR — sub-replacement drag8th/30
28%dead money %16th/30
0.593win %1st/30
42.2roster fWAR6th/30
+21surplus $M (value vs cost)5th/30
$62Mpayroll $M23rd/30

2007: made playoffs · 96–66. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFGrady Sizemore 160GKenny Lofton 83GFranklin Gutierrez 8G
LFJason Michaels 74GDavid Dellucci 51GKenny Lofton 50G
RFFranklin Gutierrez 88GTrot Nixon 87GJason Michaels 27G
SSJhonny Peralta 152GMike Rouse 11GAsdrúbal Cabrera 7G
2BJosh Barfield 120GAsdrúbal Cabrera 40GMike Rouse 14G
3BCasey Blake 145GChris Gomez 31GAndy Marte 19G
1BRyan Garko 125GChris Gomez 44GVictor Martinez 30G
STARTERSCC Sabathia 6.6WARRoberto Hernandez 3.3WARPaul Byrd 1.8WARJake Westbrook 1.7WARAaron Laffey 0.9WAR
CVictor Martinez 121GKelly Shoppach 58G
DHTravis Hafner 137GRyan Garko 6GTrot Nixon 5G
BULLPEN★ Joe Borowski 45svRafael Betancourt 31hRafael Perez 12hAaron Fultz 11hTom Mastny 7hJensen Lewis 5hEdward Mujica 0hJason Stanford 0h
CVictor Martinez 121 · Kelly Shoppach 58
1BRyan Garko 125 · Chris Gomez 44 · Victor Martinez 30
2BJosh Barfield 120 · Asdrúbal Cabrera 40 · Mike Rouse 14
3BCasey Blake 145 · Chris Gomez 31 · Andy Marte 19
SSJhonny Peralta 152 · Mike Rouse 11 · Asdrúbal Cabrera 7
LFJason Michaels 74 · David Dellucci 51 · Kenny Lofton 50
CFGrady Sizemore 160 · Kenny Lofton 83 · Franklin Gutierrez 8
RFFranklin Gutierrez 88 · Trot Nixon 87 · Jason Michaels 27
DHTravis Hafner 137 · Ryan Garko 6 · Trot Nixon 5
SPCC Sabathia 6.6 · Roberto Hernandez 3.3 · Paul Byrd 1.8 · Jake Westbrook 1.7 · Aaron Laffey 0.9
BP★ Joe Borowski 45 · Rafael Betancourt 31 · Rafael Perez 12 · Aaron Fultz 11 · Tom Mastny 7 · Jensen Lewis 5 · Edward Mujica 0 · Jason Stanford 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2007 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
CC Sabathia 26 FA-elig 346.6 8.8 +5.4
Grady Sizemore 24 arb 1626.4 0.9 +12.8
Victor Martinez 28 arb 1475.4 3.2 +8.5
Rafael Betancourt 32 arb 683.3 0.8 +6.3
Roberto Hernandez 26 pre-arb 323.3 0.4 +6.7
Casey Blake 33 FA-elig 1562.9 3.8 +2.5
Travis Hafner 30 arb 1522.2 4.0 +0.8
Franklin Gutierrez 24 pre-arb 1001.8 0.4 +3.5
Paul Byrd 36 FA-elig 311.8 7.0 -3.2
Jhonny Peralta 25 arb 1521.7 1.0 +2.7
Jake Westbrook 29 FA-elig 251.7 6.1 -2.5
Jason Michaels 31 FA-elig 1051.4 2.0 +1.0
Rafael Perez 25 – 441.3 – –
Kelly Shoppach 27 pre-arb 591.2 0.4 +2.2
Aaron Laffey 22 – 90.9 – –
Asdrúbal Cabrera 21 – 450.7 – –
Jensen Lewis 23 – 260.7 0.2 +1.3
Joe Borowski 36 FA-elig 690.6 4.0 -2.8
Kenny Lofton↔ TEX 40 FA-elig 520.5 2.3 -1.2
Ryan Garko 26 pre-arb 1380.5 0.4 +0.6
Jason Stanford 30 – 80.4 – –
Ben Francisco 25 – 250.3 0.2 +0.5
Aaron Fultz 33 FA-elig 490.3 1.5 -0.8
Shin-Soo Choo 24 – 60.2 – –
Tom Mastny 26 pre-arb 510.1 0.4 -0.3
Matt Miller 35 arb 20.1 0.6 -0.4
Mike Koplove 30 – 50.0 – –
Jeremy Sowers 24 pre-arb 130.0 0.4 -0.3
Jason Davis↔ SEA 27 arb 80.0 0.2 -0.2
Cliff Lee 28 arb 20-0.0 3.0 -3.0
Luis Rivas 27 – 4-0.0 – –
Edward Mujica 23 – 10-0.0 0.4 -0.5
Juan Lara 26 – 1-0.1 – –
Roberto Hernandez↔ LAD 42 FA-elig 28-0.1 1.8 -2.1
David Dellucci 33 FA-elig 56-0.3 3.8 -4.4
Andy Marte 23 pre-arb 20-0.3 0.4 -1.0
Fernando Cabrera↔ BAL 25 arb 24-0.3 0.3 -1.0
Chris Gomez↔ BAL 36 FA-elig 19-0.4 0.2 -1.1
Mike Rouse 27 pre-arb 41-0.7 0.4 -1.9
Trot Nixon 33 FA-elig 99-0.9 3.0 -4.9
Josh Barfield 24 pre-arb 130-0.9 0.4 -2.3

Key additions (new vs 2006)

PlayerfWAR
Aaron Laffey0.9
Asdrúbal Cabrera0.7
Jensen Lewis0.7
Joe Borowski0.6
Kenny Lofton0.5
Jason Stanford0.4

Key subtractions (gone from 2006)

Player2006 fWAR
Ben Broussard1.0
Jason Johnson0.5
Joe Inglett0.5
Ronnie Belliard0.5
Bob Wickman0.5
Eduardo Perez0.4

Current & Historical Payroll

2007 payroll
$62.5M

What the front office was committed to as of 2007, 2007–2013. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (14)

PlayerAgeSvc2007200820092010201120122013
CC Sabathia266.000$8.8M$5.7MFREE AGENT
Paul Byrd3612.000$7.0M$5.5MFREE AGENT
Jake Westbrook297.000$6.1M$10.0MFREE AGENT$7.0M
Joe Borowski3612.000$4.0M$4.0MFREE AGENT
David Dellucci3310.000$3.8M$3.8M$2.5MFREE AGENT
Casey Blake338.000$3.8M$3.8MFREE AGENT
Trot Nixon3311.000$3.0MFREE AGENT
Kenny Lofton4016.000$2.3MFREE AGENT
Jason Michaels316.000$2.0M$1.8MFREE AGENT
Roberto Hernandez4216.000$1.8MFREE AGENT
Aaron Fultz337.000$1.5MFREE AGENT
Chris Gomez3614.000$176kFREE AGENT
Luis Rivas277.000—FREE AGENT
Mike Koplove306.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (10)

PlayerAgeSvc2007200820092010201120122013
Travis Hafner305.000$4.0MFREE AGENT
Victor Martinez285.000$3.2MFREE AGENT
Cliff Lee285.000$3.0MFREE AGENT
Jhonny Peralta254.000$1.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Grady Sizemore243.000$917kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rafael Betancourt324.000$840kARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Miller354.000$560kARB 3FREE AGENT
Fernando Cabrera253.000$285kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Davis275.000$223kFREE AGENT
Jason Stanford304.000—ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (17)

PlayerAgeSvc2007200820092010201120122013
Josh Barfield241.000$396kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Roberto Hernandez261.000$388kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeremy Sowers241.000$385kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kelly Shoppach272.000$383kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andy Marte232.000$383kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Garko262.000$383kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Franklin Gutierrez242.000$382kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tom Mastny261.000$382kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Rouse271.000$380kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Edward Mujica231.000$380kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jensen Lewis230.000$166kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ben Francisco250.000$160kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Shin-Soo Choo242.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Juan Lara26–—
Aaron Laffey220.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Asdrúbal Cabrera210.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rafael Perez251.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Guardians 2007; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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Not enough history to chart.

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Pick a wider year range.

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payroll %{x:.2f}× lg · TAB %{y:+.1f}
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slot %{x} · %{customdata[1]:.1f} WAR
%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'CLE',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});