RRosternomics
𝕏

Guardians CLE

‹ ›

President of baseball ops: Chris Antonetti · GM: Mike Chernoff

Overview

WINDOW ↗ rising
cheap & winning · year 2 in this regime · payroll 0.74× league · TAB +17.6
+17.6TAB — talent above budget
+16.4WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)
2.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars5th/30
-2.7dead WAR — sub-replacement drag10th/30
19%dead money %1st/30
0.583win %6th/30
17.9roster fWAR5th/30
+43surplus $M (value vs cost)2nd/30
$87Mpayroll $M23rd/30

2020: made playoffs · 35–25. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFDelino DeShields 35GÓscar Mercado 21GBradley Zimmer 7G
LFJosh Naylor 22GJordan Luplow 21GÓscar Mercado 12G
RFTyler Naquin 39GDomingo Santana 16GJordan Luplow 9G
SSFrancisco Lindor 58GYu Chang 4GMike Freeman 3G
2BCésar Hernández 58GMike Freeman 4GYu Chang 2G
3BJosé Ramírez 57GMike Freeman 6GYu Chang 3G
1BCarlos Santana 60GJosh Naylor 5GMike Freeman 1G
STARTERSShane Bieber 3.1WARZach Plesac 1.5WARCarlos Carrasco 1.5WARAaron Civale 1.2WARTriston McKenzie 0.6WAR
CAustin Hedges 34GRoberto Pérez 32GSandy León 24G
DHFranmil Reyes 57GFrancisco Lindor 2GDelino DeShields 1G
BULLPEN★ Brad Hand 16svNick Wittgren 10hJames Karinchak 8hPhil Maton 4hOliver Pérez 3hAdam Cimber 3hCal Quantrill 2hCam Hill 2h
CAustin Hedges 34 · Roberto Pérez 32 · Sandy León 24
1BCarlos Santana 60 · Josh Naylor 5 · Mike Freeman 1
2BCésar Hernández 58 · Mike Freeman 4 · Yu Chang 2
3BJosé Ramírez 57 · Mike Freeman 6 · Yu Chang 3
SSFrancisco Lindor 58 · Yu Chang 4 · Mike Freeman 3
LFJosh Naylor 22 · Jordan Luplow 21 · Óscar Mercado 12
CFDelino DeShields 35 · Óscar Mercado 21 · Bradley Zimmer 7
RFTyler Naquin 39 · Domingo Santana 16 · Jordan Luplow 9
DHFranmil Reyes 57 · Francisco Lindor 2 · Delino DeShields 1
SPShane Bieber 3.1 · Zach Plesac 1.5 · Carlos Carrasco 1.5 · Aaron Civale 1.2 · Triston McKenzie 0.6
BP★ Brad Hand 16 · Nick Wittgren 10 · James Karinchak 8 · Phil Maton 4 · Oliver Pérez 3 · Adam Cimber 3 · Cal Quantrill 2 · Cam Hill 2

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2020 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Shane Bieber 25 pre-arb 123.1 0.2 +22.8
José Ramírez 27 FA-elig 583.1 6.7 +16.1
César Hernández 30 FA-elig 581.9 6.2 +7.3
Francisco Lindor 26 arb 601.8 17.5 -4.0
Carlos Carrasco 33 FA-elig 121.5 10.2 +0.5
Zach Plesac 25 pre-arb 81.5 0.2 +10.6
Aaron Civale 25 pre-arb 121.2 0.2 +8.3
Brad Hand 30 FA-elig 231.1 7.6 +0.5
James Karinchak 24 pre-arb 271.1 0.2 +7.8
Franmil Reyes 24 pre-arb 590.8 0.2 +5.4
Carlos Santana 34 FA-elig 600.8 20.8 -15.2
Phil Maton 27 pre-arb 230.7 0.2 +4.6
Triston McKenzie 22 – 80.6 0.1 +4.1
Oliver Pérez 38 FA-elig 210.4 1.1 +1.6
Roberto Pérez 31 FA-elig 320.3 3.6 -1.1
Cal Quantrill↔ SDP 25 pre-arb 80.2 0.1 +1.5
Jordan Luplow 26 pre-arb 290.2 0.2 +1.2
Adam Cimber 29 pre-arb 140.1 0.2 +0.6
Yu Chang 24 – 100.1 – –
Adam Plutko 28 pre-arb 100.1 0.2 +0.4
Delino DeShields 27 arb 370.1 1.9 -1.4
Nick Wittgren 29 arb 250.1 1.1 -0.7
Bradley Zimmer 27 pre-arb 200.0 0.1 +0.2
Mike Freeman 32 pre-arb 240.0 0.2 -0.1
Mike Clevinger↔ SDP 29 arb 40.0 2.0 -2.0
Christian Arroyo↔ BOS 25 – 10.0 0.0 -0.0
Logan Allen 23 pre-arb 3-0.0 0.0 -0.4
Greg Allen↔ SDP 27 – 15-0.1 0.1 -0.6
Kyle Nelson 23 – 1-0.1 – –
Dominic Leone 28 arb 12-0.1 0.2 -0.7
Sandy León 31 FA-elig 25-0.1 2.0 -2.7
Josh Naylor↔ SDP 23 pre-arb 22-0.1 0.1 -0.8
Austin Hedges↔ SDP 27 arb 6-0.1 0.5 -1.3
Cam Hill 26 – 18-0.1 0.2 -1.2
Domingo Santana 27 FA-elig 24-0.2 1.2 -2.5
Daniel Johnson 24 – 5-0.2 0.0 -1.5
Beau Taylor 30 pre-arb 7-0.2 0.1 -1.9
Tyler Naquin 29 arb 40-0.6 1.4 -6.2
Óscar Mercado 25 pre-arb 36-0.7 0.2 -5.6

Key additions (new vs 2019)

PlayerfWAR
César Hernández1.9
Triston McKenzie0.6
Cal Quantrill0.2
Delino DeShields0.1
Christian Arroyo0.0
Kyle Nelson-0.1

Key subtractions (gone from 2019)

Player2019 fWAR
Trevor Bauer2.6
Yasiel Puig1.2
Tyler Clippard0.7
Kevin Plawecki0.6
Jason Kipnis0.4
A.J. Cole0.2

Current & Historical Payroll

2020 payroll
$87.2M
2021 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2020, 2020–2026. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2020; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (4)

PlayerAgeSvc2020202120222023202420252026
Carlos Santana349.115$20.8MFREE AGENT
Carlos Carrasco338.147$10.2MFREE AGENT
Brad Hand306.092$7.6MFREE AGENT
Oliver Pérez3815.093$1.1MFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (12)

PlayerAgeSvc2020202120222023202420252026
Francisco Lindor264.113$17.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
José Ramírez275.074$6.7MFREE AGENT
César Hernández305.154$6.2MFREE AGENT
Roberto Pérez315.083$3.6MFREE AGENT
Mike Clevinger293.040$2.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sandy León315.144$2.0MFREE AGENT
Delino DeShields274.109$1.9MARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Naquin293.032$1.4MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Domingo Santana274.024$1.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Wittgren293.071$1.1MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Austin Hedges273.166$514kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dominic Leone284.068$162kARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (23)

PlayerAgeSvc2020202120222023202420252026
Shane Bieber251.097$231kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Franmil Reyes241.115$217kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Freeman321.111$213kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adam Plutko281.063$213kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jordan Luplow261.112$213kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Phil Maton272.047$212kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Aaron Civale250.058$209kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
James Karinchak240.017$209kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cam Hill260.000$174kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Óscar Mercado250.139$168kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zach Plesac250.114$159kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adam Cimber292.000$157kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Triston McKenzie220.000$115kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bradley Zimmer272.036$95kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Beau Taylor300.030$93kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Greg Allen271.099$83kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cal Quantrill250.132$55kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Naylor230.118$52kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Logan Allen23–$47k
Daniel Johnson240.000$34kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Christian Arroyo251.064$10kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yu Chang241.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Nelson230.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Guardians 2020; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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Pick a wider year range.

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slot %{x} · %{customdata[1]:.1f} WAR
%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'CLE',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});