RRosternomics
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Guardians CLE

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President of baseball ops: Chris Antonetti · GM: Mike Chernoff

Overview

WINDOW ↗ rising
cheap & winning · year 3 in this regime · payroll 0.45× league · TAB +15.9
+15.9TAB — talent above budget3rd/30
+19.9WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)3rd/30
8.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars8th/30
-6.6dead WAR — sub-replacement drag20th/30
22%dead money %7th/30
0.568win %7th/30
40.7roster fWAR9th/30
+86surplus $M (value vs cost)1st/30
$65Mpayroll $M27th/30

2022: made playoffs · 92–70. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFMyles Straw 152GWill Benson 10GSteven Kwan 7G
LFSteven Kwan 123GRichie Palacios 25GÓscar Mercado 12G
RFOscar Gonzalez 84GÓscar Mercado 36GNolan Jones 22G
SSAmed Rosario 140GAndrés Giménez 18GTyler Freeman 7G
2BAndrés Giménez 125GOwen Miller 25GErnie Clement 15G
3BJosé Ramírez 127GTyler Freeman 11GGabriel Arias 9G
1BJosh Naylor 88GOwen Miller 80GBobby Bradley 7G
STARTERSShane Bieber 4.8WARTriston McKenzie 3.4WARCal Quantrill 2.1WARAaron Civale 1.3WARZach Plesac 0.8WAR
CAustin Hedges 105GLuke Maile 76GBryan Lavastida 6G
DHJosé Ramírez 30GJosh Naylor 27GOwen Miller 22G
BULLPEN★ Emmanuel Clase 42svTrevor Stephan 19hEli Morgan 10hSam Hentges 8hJames Karinchak 8hNick Sandlin 7hBryan Shaw 5hEnyel De Los Santos 3h
CAustin Hedges 105 · Luke Maile 76 · Bryan Lavastida 6
1BJosh Naylor 88 · Owen Miller 80 · Bobby Bradley 7
2BAndrés Giménez 125 · Owen Miller 25 · Ernie Clement 15
3BJosé Ramírez 127 · Tyler Freeman 11 · Gabriel Arias 9
SSAmed Rosario 140 · Andrés Giménez 18 · Tyler Freeman 7
LFSteven Kwan 123 · Richie Palacios 25 · Óscar Mercado 12
CFMyles Straw 152 · Will Benson 10 · Steven Kwan 7
RFOscar Gonzalez 84 · Óscar Mercado 36 · Nolan Jones 22
DHJosé Ramírez 30 · Josh Naylor 27 · Owen Miller 22
SPShane Bieber 4.8 · Triston McKenzie 3.4 · Cal Quantrill 2.1 · Aaron Civale 1.3 · Zach Plesac 0.8
BP★ Emmanuel Clase 42 · Trevor Stephan 19 · Eli Morgan 10 · Sam Hentges 8 · James Karinchak 8 · Nick Sandlin 7 · Bryan Shaw 5 · Enyel De Los Santos 3

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2022 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Andrés Giménez 23 pre-arb 1466.1 0.7 +21.7
José Ramírez 29 FA-elig 1576.0 22.0 -0.2
Shane Bieber 27 arb 314.8 6.0 +11.5
Steven Kwan 24 – 1474.7 0.7 +16.4
Triston McKenzie 24 pre-arb 313.4 0.7 +11.9
Amed Rosario 26 arb 1533.1 5.0 +6.2
Emmanuel Clase 24 arb 772.3 1.9 +6.7
Cal Quantrill 27 arb 322.1 2.5 +5.0
Josh Naylor 25 arb 1221.9 1.2 +5.6
Trevor Stephan 26 pre-arb 661.7 0.7 +5.5
Myles Straw 27 arb 1521.5 1.6 +3.7
Oscar Gonzalez 24 – 911.4 0.5 +4.7
Aaron Civale 27 pre-arb 201.3 0.7 +3.9
Sam Hentges 25 pre-arb 571.0 0.7 +3.1
Enyel De Los Santos 26 – 501.0 0.6 +2.9
James Karinchak 26 pre-arb 381.0 0.7 +2.8
Zach Plesac 27 pre-arb 250.8 2.0 +1.0
Luke Maile 31 FA-elig 760.7 0.9 +1.6
Owen Miller 25 pre-arb 1300.7 0.7 +1.7
Eli Morgan 26 pre-arb 500.6 0.7 +1.4
Will Brennan 24 – 110.4 0.1 +1.5
Nick Sandlin 25 pre-arb 460.3 0.6 +0.4
Konnor Pilkington 24 – 150.2 0.2 +0.7
Nolan Jones 24 – 280.2 0.2 +0.5
Logan Allen↔ BAL 25 – 40.1 0.1 +0.5
Cody Morris 25 – 70.1 0.7 -0.3
Alex Call↔ WSN 27 – 120.1 0.1 +0.2
Sandy León↔ MIN 33 – 90.0 0.1 +0.0
Alex Young↔ SFG 28 – 10.0 0.0 +0.1
Tyler Freeman 23 – 240.0 0.2 -0.2
Ian Gibaut↔ CIN 28 – 10.0 0.0 -0.0
Yohan Ramírez↔ PIT 27 – 1-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Austin Hedges 29 FA-elig 105-0.0 4.0 -4.1
Xzavion Curry 23 – 2-0.1 0.0 -0.4
Bryan Lavastida 23 – 6-0.1 0.1 -0.5
Tanner Tully 27 – 3-0.1 0.0 -0.5
Yu Chang↔ BOS 26 – 4-0.1 – –
Anthony Gose 31 pre-arb 22-0.2 0.7 -1.3
Gabriel Arias 22 – 16-0.2 0.1 -0.7
Bo Naylor 22 – 5-0.2 0.0 -0.9
Óscar Mercado↔ PHI 27 – 54-0.3 0.3 -1.5
Richie Palacios 25 – 54-0.4 – –
Bobby Bradley 26 pre-arb 8-0.4 0.1 -1.5
Will Benson 24 – 28-0.4 0.2 -1.9
Bryan Shaw 34 FA-elig 60-0.5 3.0 -4.8
Anthony Castro 27 – 12-0.5 0.2 -2.0
Ernie Clement↔ OAK 26 – 64-0.6 0.5 -2.8
Hunter Gaddis 24 – 2-0.6 0.0 -2.3
Kirk McCarty 26 – 13-0.8 0.2 -3.2
Franmil Reyes↔ CHC 26 arb 70-0.9 2.7 -5.9

Key additions (new vs 2021)

PlayerfWAR
Steven Kwan4.7
Oscar Gonzalez1.4
Enyel De Los Santos1.0
Luke Maile0.7
Will Brennan0.4
Konnor Pilkington0.2

Key subtractions (gone from 2021)

Player2021 fWAR
César Hernández1.5
Bradley Zimmer1.4
Phil Maton0.5
Jordan Luplow0.3
Blake Parker0.2
Eddie Rosario0.2

Current & Historical Payroll

2022 payroll
$65.0M
2023 guaranteed
$4.9M

What the front office was committed to as of 2022, 2022–2028. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2022; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (5)

PlayerAgeSvc2022202320242025202620272028
José Ramírez297.074$22.0MFREE AGENT
Bryan Shaw349.152$3.0MFREE AGENT
Emmanuel Clase241.059$1.9M$2.0M$2.9M$4.9M$6.4M$10.0MCLUB$10.0MCLUB
Myles Straw272.112$1.6M$2.9M$4.9M$6.4M$7.4M$8.0MCLUB$8.5MCLUB
Sandy León337.138$92kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (7)

PlayerAgeSvc2022202320242025202620272028
Shane Bieber273.097$6.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Amed Rosario264.062$5.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Austin Hedges295.166$4.0MFREE AGENT
Franmil Reyes263.115$2.7MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luke Maile314.132$900kARB 3FREE AGENT
Enyel De Los Santos264.000$642kARB 3FREE AGENT
Yu Chang263.000—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (38)

PlayerAgeSvc2022202320242025202620272028
Cal Quantrill272.132$2.5MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zach Plesac272.086$2.0MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Naylor252.127$1.2MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Aaron Civale272.058$717kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
James Karinchak261.169$711kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Triston McKenzie241.074$707kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andrés Giménez231.106$707kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Trevor Stephan261.000$703kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Anthony Gose312.139$703kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sam Hentges250.157$702kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eli Morgan260.108$702kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Owen Miller250.091$701kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cody Morris250.000$700kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Steven Kwan240.000$700kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Sandlin250.157$648kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Oscar Gonzalez240.000$508kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ernie Clement260.096$493kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Óscar Mercado272.114$291kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Will Benson240.000$248kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Freeman230.000$241kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Konnor Pilkington240.000$213kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nolan Jones240.000$173kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kirk McCarty26–$165k
Anthony Castro271.015$156kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bobby Bradley260.144$112kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bryan Lavastida23–$85k
Gabriel Arias220.000$72kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Logan Allen25–$63k
Will Brennan240.000$56kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alex Call270.000$51kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tanner Tully270.000$31kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bo Naylor220.000$15kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Xzavion Curry230.000$12kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ian Gibaut280.148$10kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alex Young282.060$10kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Hunter Gaddis240.000$8kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yohan Ramírez271.089$8kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Richie Palacios250.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Guardians 2022; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'CLE',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});