RRosternomics
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Guardians CLE

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President of baseball ops: Chris Antonetti · GM: Mike Chernoff

Overview

WINDOW ↘ cooling
cheap & winning · year 5 in this regime · payroll 0.57× league · TAB +8.4
+8.4TAB — talent above budget8th/30
+17.7WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)1st/30
7.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars13th/30
-4.1dead WAR — sub-replacement drag12th/30
42%dead money %19th/30
0.571win %6th/30
35.6roster fWAR17th/30
+57surplus $M (value vs cost)3rd/30
$91Mpayroll $M27th/30

2024: made playoffs · 92–69. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFTyler Freeman 97GLane Thomas 46GAngel Martínez 21G
LFSteven Kwan 114GWill Brennan 18GDavid Fry 16G
RFLane Thomas 92GWill Brennan 80GJhonkensy Noel 54G
SSBrayan Rocchio 142GDaniel Schneemann 32GGabriel Arias 15G
2BAndrés Giménez 152GTyler Freeman 6GDaniel Schneemann 6G
3BJosé Ramírez 126GGabriel Arias 20GDaniel Schneemann 17G
1BJosh Naylor 137GDavid Fry 20GJhonkensy Noel 9G
STARTERSTanner Bibee 3.3WARGavin Williams 1.3WARMatthew Boyd 0.9WARBen Lively 0.8WARJoey Cantillo 0.4WAR
CBo Naylor 115GAustin Hedges 65GDavid Fry 23G
DHDavid Fry 51GKyle Manzardo 40GJosé Ramírez 32G
BULLPEN★ Emmanuel Clase 47svHunter Gaddis 33hCade Smith 28hScott Barlow 19hTim Herrin 16hNick Sandlin 9hEli Morgan 3hPedro Avila 1h
CBo Naylor 115 · Austin Hedges 65 · David Fry 23
1BJosh Naylor 137 · David Fry 20 · Jhonkensy Noel 9
2BAndrés Giménez 152 · Tyler Freeman 6 · Daniel Schneemann 6
3BJosé Ramírez 126 · Gabriel Arias 20 · Daniel Schneemann 17
SSBrayan Rocchio 142 · Daniel Schneemann 32 · Gabriel Arias 15
LFSteven Kwan 114 · Will Brennan 18 · David Fry 16
CFTyler Freeman 97 · Lane Thomas 46 · Angel Martínez 21
RFLane Thomas 92 · Will Brennan 80 · Jhonkensy Noel 54
DHDavid Fry 51 · Kyle Manzardo 40 · José Ramírez 32
SPTanner Bibee 3.3 · Gavin Williams 1.3 · Matthew Boyd 0.9 · Ben Lively 0.8 · Joey Cantillo 0.4
BP★ Emmanuel Clase 47 · Hunter Gaddis 33 · Cade Smith 28 · Scott Barlow 19 · Tim Herrin 16 · Nick Sandlin 9 · Eli Morgan 3 · Pedro Avila 1

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2024 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
José Ramírez 31 FA-elig 1586.4 17.0 +9.7
Steven Kwan 26 pre-arb 1224.2 0.8 +16.6
Tanner Bibee 25 pre-arb 313.3 0.7 +13.0
Andrés Giménez 25 arb 1522.7 5.6 +5.8
Cade Smith 25 pre-arb 742.7 0.7 +10.5
Josh Naylor 27 arb 1522.3 6.5 +2.9
Emmanuel Clase 26 arb 742.2 2.9 +6.4
David Fry 28 pre-arb 1221.7 0.7 +6.5
Hunter Gaddis 26 pre-arb 781.6 0.7 +6.0
Bo Naylor 24 pre-arb 1231.6 0.7 +5.9
Gavin Williams 24 pre-arb 161.3 0.7 +4.5
Brayan Rocchio 23 pre-arb 1431.1 0.7 +3.7
Tim Herrin 27 pre-arb 751.0 0.7 +3.3
Matthew Boyd 33 FA-elig 80.9 0.4 +3.3
Ben Lively 32 FA-elig 290.8 0.8 +2.5
Shane Bieber 29 FA-elig 20.8 13.1 -9.9
Jhonkensy Noel 22 – 670.6 0.4 +2.2
Will Brennan 26 pre-arb 1140.5 0.7 +1.2
Joey Cantillo 24 – 90.4 0.1 +1.7
Austin Hedges 31 FA-elig 660.4 4.0 -2.3
Erik Sabrowski 26 – 80.4 0.1 +1.5
Lane Thomas↔ WSN 28 arb 530.4 0.9 +0.7
Tyler Freeman 25 pre-arb 1180.4 0.7 +0.8
Eli Morgan 28 arb 320.3 0.8 +0.6
Daniel Schneemann 27 pre-arb 730.3 0.7 +0.5
Alex Cobb 36 FA-elig 30.3 3.3 -2.2
Pedro Avila↔ SDP 27 arb 500.3 0.7 +0.4
Sam Hentges 27 arb 250.3 1.2 -0.1
Connor Gillispie 26 – 30.1 0.0 +0.5
Carlos Carrasco 37 FA-elig 210.1 2.0 -1.4
Andrew Walters 23 – 90.1 0.1 +0.4
Wes Parsons↔ TOR 31 FA-elig 20.1 0.4 +0.0
Estevan Florial 26 pre-arb 360.1 0.3 +0.0
Peter Strzelecki 29 pre-arb 100.1 0.7 -0.5
Scott Barlow 31 FA-elig 630.0 6.7 -6.5
Kyle Manzardo 23 pre-arb 530.0 0.7 -0.6
Myles Straw 29 FA-elig 70.0 4.9 -4.8
Angel Martínez 22 – 43-0.0 0.7 -0.8
Xzavion Curry↔ MIA 25 pre-arb 7-0.1 0.3 -0.7
Anthony Gose 33 arb 3-0.1 0.0 -0.5
José Tena↔ WSN 23 pre-arb 3-0.1 0.1 -0.6
Tyler Beede 31 FA-elig 13-0.2 1.2 -1.9
Spencer Howard↔ SFG 27 pre-arb 2-0.2 0.0 -0.8
Ramón Laureano↔ ATL 29 FA-elig 31-0.2 1.6 -2.5
Gabriel Arias 24 pre-arb 53-0.2 0.7 -1.7
Johnathan Rodríguez 24 pre-arb 13-0.2 0.7 -1.7
Darren McCaughan↔ MIA 28 arb 2-0.3 0.1 -1.2
Nick Sandlin 27 arb 68-0.7 1.1 -4.0
Logan Allen 25 pre-arb 20-0.7 0.7 -3.7
Triston McKenzie 26 arb 16-1.0 1.6 -5.7

Key additions (new vs 2023)

PlayerfWAR
Cade Smith2.7
Matthew Boyd0.9
Ben Lively0.8
Jhonkensy Noel0.6
Joey Cantillo0.4
Austin Hedges0.4

Key subtractions (gone from 2023)

Player2023 fWAR
Aaron Civale1.6
Cal Quantrill0.7
Enyel De Los Santos0.7
Reynaldo López0.4
Zach Plesac0.2
Michael Kelly0.2

Current & Historical Payroll

2024 payroll
$91.4M
2025 guaranteed
$21.9M

What the front office was committed to as of 2024, 2024–2030. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2024; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (10)

PlayerAgeSvc2024202520262027202820292030
José Ramírez319.074$17.0MFREE AGENT
Scott Barlow316.000$6.7MFREE AGENT
Andrés Giménez253.106$5.6M$10.6M$15.6M$23.6M$23.6M$23.6M$23.0MCLUB
Myles Straw294.112$4.9M$6.4M$7.4M$8.0MCLUB$8.5MCLUBFREE AGENT
Austin Hedges317.166$4.0MFREE AGENT
Alex Cobb3612.061$3.3MFREE AGENT
Emmanuel Clase263.059$2.9M$4.9M$6.4M$10.0MCLUB$10.0MCLUBFREE AGENT
Carlos Carrasco3712.147$2.0MFREE AGENT
Wes Parsons316.000$375kFREE AGENT
Matthew Boyd337.136$374kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (7)

PlayerAgeSvc2024202520262027202820292030
Shane Bieber295.097$13.1MFREE AGENT
Josh Naylor274.127$6.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Ramón Laureano294.165$1.6MARB 3FREE AGENT
Triston McKenzie263.074$1.6MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Beede313.102$1.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Lane Thomas284.014$897kARB 3FREE AGENT
Anthony Gose333.139$38kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (33)

PlayerAgeSvc2024202520262027202820292030
Sam Hentges272.157$1.2MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Sandlin272.152$1.1MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Steven Kwan262.000$758kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eli Morgan282.108$751kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ben Lively321.133$750kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tanner Bibee251.000$746kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Will Brennan261.015$745kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Logan Allen250.143$744kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gabriel Arias241.019$744kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gavin Williams240.103$742kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bo Naylor240.113$742kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Freeman251.046$742kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Fry280.154$741kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tim Herrin270.077$741kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Hunter Gaddis260.073$741kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brayan Rocchio230.037$740kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Peter Strzelecki291.003$740kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Manzardo230.000$740kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Johnathan Rodríguez240.097$740kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Daniel Schneemann270.000$740kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cade Smith250.000$740kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pedro Avila270.099$691kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Angel Martínez220.000$688kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jhonkensy Noel220.000$382kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Xzavion Curry251.003$326kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Estevan Florial260.118$262kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Erik Sabrowski260.000$131kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Darren McCaughan280.017$123kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joey Cantillo240.000$123kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andrew Walters230.000$72kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
José Tena230.042$50kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Spencer Howard272.033$35kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Connor Gillispie260.000$24kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Guardians 2024; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'CLE',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});