RRosternomics
𝕏

Rockies COL

‹ ›

GM: Daniel O'Dowd

Overview

WINDOW ↗ rising
cheap & winning · year 2 in this regime · payroll 0.7× league · TAB +9.4
+9.4TAB — talent above budget3rd/30
+12.1WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)3rd/30
7.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars10th/30
-4.2dead WAR — sub-replacement drag10th/30
21%dead money %7th/30
0.552win %6th/30
39.6roster fWAR10th/30
+25surplus $M (value vs cost)4th/30
$57Mpayroll $M25th/30

2007: won pennant · 90–73. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFWilly Taveras 86GCory Sullivan 51GRyan Spilborghs 46G
LFMatt Holliday 157GRyan Spilborghs 15GJeff Baker 6G
RFBrad Hawpe 142GRyan Spilborghs 20GJeff Baker 13G
SSTroy Tulowitzki 155GJamey Carroll 11GClint Barmes 8G
2BKazuo Matsui 102GJamey Carroll 60GOmar Quintanilla 25G
3BGarrett Atkins 154GJamey Carroll 35GIan Stewart 11G
1BTodd Helton 153GJeff Baker 20GGarrett Atkins 10G
STARTERSJeff Francis 3.8WARAaron Cook 2.6WARTaylor Buchholz 1.6WARFranklin Morales 1.0WARJosh Fogg 1.0WAR
CYorvit Torrealba 112GChris Iannetta 60GGeronimo Gil 4G
DHWilly Taveras 3GJeff Baker 2GRyan Spilborghs 2G
BULLPEN★ Brian Fuentes 20svJorge Julio 17hLaTroy Hawkins 17hManny Corpas 16hJeremy Affeldt 9hMatt Herges 4hRamon E Ramirez 3hTom Martin 2h
CYorvit Torrealba 112 · Chris Iannetta 60 · Geronimo Gil 4
1BTodd Helton 153 · Jeff Baker 20 · Garrett Atkins 10
2BKazuo Matsui 102 · Jamey Carroll 60 · Omar Quintanilla 25
3BGarrett Atkins 154 · Jamey Carroll 35 · Ian Stewart 11
SSTroy Tulowitzki 155 · Jamey Carroll 11 · Clint Barmes 8
LFMatt Holliday 157 · Ryan Spilborghs 15 · Jeff Baker 6
CFWilly Taveras 86 · Cory Sullivan 51 · Ryan Spilborghs 46
RFBrad Hawpe 142 · Ryan Spilborghs 20 · Jeff Baker 13
DHWilly Taveras 3 · Jeff Baker 2 · Ryan Spilborghs 2
SPJeff Francis 3.8 · Aaron Cook 2.6 · Taylor Buchholz 1.6 · Franklin Morales 1.0 · Josh Fogg 1.0
BP★ Brian Fuentes 20 · Jorge Julio 17 · LaTroy Hawkins 17 · Manny Corpas 16 · Jeremy Affeldt 9 · Matt Herges 4 · Ramon E Ramirez 3 · Tom Martin 2

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2007 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Matt Holliday 27 arb 1586.9 4.4 +10.4
Troy Tulowitzki 22 pre-arb 1555.2 0.4 +10.8
Todd Helton 33 FA-elig 1544.2 16.6 -7.6
Jeff Francis 26 arb 353.8 0.8 +7.5
Kazuo Matsui 31 arb 1042.7 1.5 +4.2
Aaron Cook 28 arb 252.6 3.1 +2.5
Garrett Atkins 27 arb 1572.1 0.4 +4.2
Ryan Spilborghs 27 – 971.6 0.4 +3.1
Taylor Buchholz 25 – 411.6 0.4 +3.1
Brad Hawpe 28 arb 1521.5 0.4 +2.8
Manny Corpas 24 pre-arb 781.2 0.4 +2.2
Franklin Morales 21 – 81.0 0.1 +2.1
Josh Fogg 30 FA-elig 301.0 3.6 -1.5
Willy Taveras 25 arb 970.9 0.4 +1.5
Brian Fuentes 31 FA-elig 640.9 3.5 -1.6
Ubaldo Jiménez 23 – 150.9 – –
Rodrigo Lopez 31 FA-elig 140.7 4.3 -2.8
Jason Hirsh 25 pre-arb 190.7 0.4 +1.0
Yorvit Torrealba 28 FA-elig 1130.6 1.1 +0.2
Jorge Julio↔ MIA 28 FA-elig 580.6 3.1 -1.9
Jeremy Affeldt 28 arb 750.4 1.2 -0.3
Matt Herges 37 – 350.3 – –
Zach McClellan 28 – 120.3 – –
Mark Redman↔ ATL 33 FA-elig 50.3 0.3 +0.3
Chris Iannetta 24 pre-arb 670.3 0.4 +0.2
Seth Smith 24 – 70.3 – –
Jamey Carroll 33 arb 1080.2 1.7 -1.2
Denny Bautista 26 – 90.2 – –
Ryan Speier 27 – 200.2 – –
Ian Stewart 22 – 350.2 – –
Tim Harikkala 35 – 10.2 – –
LaTroy Hawkins 34 FA-elig 620.2 3.2 -2.9
Ramon E Ramirez 25 pre-arb 220.1 0.4 -0.1
Josh Newman 25 – 20.0 – –
Darren Clarke 26 – 20.0 – –
Elmer Dessens↔ MIL 36 FA-elig 50.0 0.5 -0.5
Sean Barker 27 – 3-0.0 – –
Juan Morillo 23 – 4-0.0 – –
Edwin Bellorin 25 – 3-0.1 – –
Dan Serafini 33 – 3-0.1 – –
Cory Sullivan 27 – 72-0.1 – –
Bob Keppel 25 – 4-0.1 – –
Tom Martin 37 FA-elig 26-0.1 0.7 -1.0
Joe Koshansky 25 – 17-0.1 – –
Ramon Ortiz↔ MIN 34 FA-elig 10-0.2 0.8 -1.2
Alberto Arias 23 – 6-0.2 – –
Geronimo Gil 31 – 5-0.3 – –
Byung-Hyun Kim↔ ARI 28 FA-elig 3-0.3 0.3 -0.9
John Mabry 36 FA-elig 28-0.3 0.8 -1.4
Clint Barmes 28 – 27-0.3 0.4 -1.1
Omar Quintanilla 25 – 27-0.4 – –
Jeff Baker 26 pre-arb 85-0.6 0.4 -1.6
Steve Finley 42 FA-elig 43-1.1 1.0 -3.3

Key additions (new vs 2006)

PlayerfWAR
Taylor Buchholz1.6
Franklin Morales1.0
Willy Taveras0.9
Rodrigo Lopez0.7
Jason Hirsh0.7
Jorge Julio0.6

Key subtractions (gone from 2006)

Player2006 fWAR
Jason Jennings4.0
Eli Marrero0.4
Jason Smith0.3
David Cortes0.2
Mike Venafro0.0
Nate Field0.0

Current & Historical Payroll

2007 payroll
$57.3M

What the front office was committed to as of 2007, 2007–2013. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (17)

PlayerAgeSvc2007200820092010201120122013
Todd Helton3310.000$16.6M$16.6M$16.6M$17.8M$20.3M$4.9M$5.0M
Rodrigo Lopez317.000$4.3MFREE AGENT
Josh Fogg306.000$3.6MFREE AGENT
Brian Fuentes316.000$3.5M$5.0MFREE AGENT
LaTroy Hawkins3412.000$3.2MFREE AGENT
Jorge Julio286.000$3.1MFREE AGENT
Yorvit Torrealba286.000$1.1M$3.0M$3.8MFREE AGENT$1.0M
Steve Finley4218.000$1.0MFREE AGENT
Ramon Ortiz348.000$816kFREE AGENT
John Mabry3613.000$750kFREE AGENT
Tom Martin3710.000$700kFREE AGENT
Elmer Dessens3611.000$500kFREE AGENT
Mark Redman338.000$341k$1.0MFREE AGENT
Byung-Hyun Kim288.000$268kFREE AGENT
Dan Serafini3311.000—FREE AGENT
Matt Herges378.000—$2.0MFREE AGENT
Geronimo Gil316.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (11)

PlayerAgeSvc2007200820092010201120122013
Matt Holliday273.000$4.4MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Aaron Cook285.000$3.1MFREE AGENT
Jamey Carroll335.000$1.7MFREE AGENT
Kazuo Matsui313.000$1.5MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeremy Affeldt285.000$1.2MFREE AGENT
Jeff Francis263.000$750kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brad Hawpe283.000$403kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Willy Taveras253.000$402kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Garrett Atkins274.000$400kARB 3FREE AGENT
Clint Barmes284.000$395kARB 3FREE AGENT
Denny Bautista263.000—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (25)

PlayerAgeSvc2007200820092010201120122013
Jeff Baker262.000$400kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ramon E Ramirez251.000$386kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Taylor Buchholz251.000$383kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Spilborghs272.000$383kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Manny Corpas241.000$382kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Hirsh251.000$381kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Troy Tulowitzki221.000$381kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Iannetta241.000$381kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Franklin Morales210.000$91kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tim Harikkala35–—
Cory Sullivan272.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bob Keppel25–—
Edwin Bellorin25–—
Ubaldo Jiménez231.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Juan Morillo23–—
Ryan Speier272.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Omar Quintanilla252.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zach McClellan28–—
Sean Barker27–—
Seth Smith240.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ian Stewart220.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Newman25–—
Darren Clarke26–—
Joe Koshansky25–—
Alberto Arias230.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Rockies 2007; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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Not enough history to chart.

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Pick a wider year range.

'; return; } const s=sm(raw,w),n=s.length,X=s.map(d=>Math.round(d[1]*100)/100),Y=s.map(d=>Math.round(d[2]*10)/10),yr=s.map(d=>d[0]); let xa=Math.min(1,...X),xb=Math.max(1,...X),ya=Math.min(0,...Y),yb=Math.max(0,...Y); const px=(xb-xa)*.12+.04,py=(yb-ya)*.12+1.5;xa-=px;xb+=px;ya-=py;yb+=py; const k=Math.max(0,n-3), ann=[]; [['WINDOW','#15b6a0',xa<1&&yb>0,xa,yb,'left','top'],['CONTEND','#2f7ed8',xb>1&&yb>0,xb,yb,'right','top'], ['FORCED-SPEND','#ec5a3c',xb>1&&ya<0,xb,ya,'right','bottom'],['REBUILD','#f0a91c',xa<1&&ya<0,xa,ya,'left','bottom']].forEach(q=>{ if(q[2]) ann.push({x:q[3],y:q[4],xref:'x',yref:'y',text:q[0],showarrow:false,xanchor:q[5],yanchor:q[6],font:{size:10,color:q[1]},opacity:.85});}); ann.push({x:X[n-1],y:Y[n-1],ax:X[n-1]-0.5*(X[n-1]-X[k]),ay:Y[n-1]-0.5*(Y[n-1]-Y[k]),xref:'x',yref:'y',axref:'x',ayref:'y',showarrow:true,arrowhead:2,arrowsize:1.3,arrowwidth:1.7,arrowcolor:dirc,text:''}); Plotly.newPlot('orbit',[{x:X,y:Y,mode:'lines+markers',line:{color:col,width:2.6,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.7}, marker:{color:col,size:s.map((d,i)=>5+7*(i/Math.max(1,n-1))),line:{color:dark?'#1b1e23':'#fff',width:0.6}}, text:yr,hovertemplate:'%{text}
payroll %{x:.2f}× lg · TAB %{y:+.1f}
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slot %{x} · %{customdata[1]:.1f} WAR
%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'COL',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});