RRosternomics
𝕏

Rockies COL

‹ ›

GM: Jeff Bridich

Overview

WINDOW ↗ rising
cheap & winning · year 2 in this regime · payroll 0.82× league · TAB +1.5
+1.5TAB — talent above budget13th/30
+7.6WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)7th/30
6.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars18th/30
-4.6dead WAR — sub-replacement drag13th/30
45%dead money %19th/30
0.537win %9th/30
33.4roster fWAR13th/30
+6surplus $M (value vs cost)11th/30
$107Mpayroll $M21st/30

2017: made playoffs · 87–75. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFCharlie Blackmon 158GAlexi Amarista 9GRaimel Tapia 6G
LFGerardo Parra 82GIan Desmond 66GRaimel Tapia 18G
RFCarlos González 125GGerardo Parra 22GRaimel Tapia 22G
SSTrevor Story 142GPat Valaika 22GAlexi Amarista 18G
2BDJ LeMahieu 153GAlexi Amarista 19GPat Valaika 8G
3BNolan Arenado 157GPat Valaika 19GRyan McMahon 3G
1BMark Reynolds 138GIan Desmond 27GRyan McMahon 7G
STARTERSJon Gray 3.1WARGermán Márquez 2.4WARKyle Freeland 2.0WARAntonio Senzatela 1.2WARTyler Chatwood 1.0WAR
CJonathan Lucroy 110GTony Wolters 77GRyan Hanigan 30G
DHCarlos González 3GMark Reynolds 3GPat Valaika 2G
BULLPEN★ Greg Holland 41svPat Neshek 23hAdam Ottavino 21hJake McGee 20hMike Dunn 19hScott Oberg 15hChris Rusin 12hCarlos Estévez 7h
CJonathan Lucroy 110 · Tony Wolters 77 · Ryan Hanigan 30
1BMark Reynolds 138 · Ian Desmond 27 · Ryan McMahon 7
2BDJ LeMahieu 153 · Alexi Amarista 19 · Pat Valaika 8
3BNolan Arenado 157 · Pat Valaika 19 · Ryan McMahon 3
SSTrevor Story 142 · Pat Valaika 22 · Alexi Amarista 18
LFGerardo Parra 82 · Ian Desmond 66 · Raimel Tapia 18
CFCharlie Blackmon 158 · Alexi Amarista 9 · Raimel Tapia 6
RFCarlos González 125 · Gerardo Parra 22 · Raimel Tapia 22
DHCarlos González 3 · Mark Reynolds 3 · Pat Valaika 2
SPJon Gray 3.1 · Germán Márquez 2.4 · Kyle Freeland 2.0 · Antonio Senzatela 1.2 · Tyler Chatwood 1.0
BP★ Greg Holland 41 · Pat Neshek 23 · Adam Ottavino 21 · Jake McGee 20 · Mike Dunn 19 · Scott Oberg 15 · Chris Rusin 12 · Carlos Estévez 7

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2017 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Nolan Arenado 26 arb 1595.8 11.8 +7.7
Charlie Blackmon 30 FA-elig 1595.5 7.3 +11.1
DJ LeMahieu 28 FA-elig 1553.4 4.8 +6.6
Jon Gray 25 pre-arb 203.1 0.5 +10.0
Germán Márquez 22 pre-arb 292.4 0.5 +7.6
Kyle Freeland 24 – 352.0 0.5 +6.3
Trevor Story 24 pre-arb 1451.9 0.5 +5.9
Jake McGee 30 FA-elig 621.5 5.9 -0.9
Antonio Senzatela 22 pre-arb 361.2 0.5 +3.7
Chris Rusin 30 arb 601.2 0.5 +3.6
Gerardo Parra 30 FA-elig 1151.1 8.0 -4.3
Greg Holland 31 FA-elig 611.1 6.0 -2.3
Tyler Chatwood 27 FA-elig 351.0 4.4 -0.9
Pat Neshek↔ PHI 36 FA-elig 281.0 2.6 +0.8
Jeff Hoffman 24 pre-arb 230.9 0.3 +2.7
Scott Oberg 27 pre-arb 660.8 0.5 +2.3
Tyler Anderson 27 pre-arb 170.8 0.5 +2.2
Jonathan Lucroy↔ TEX 31 FA-elig 460.7 2.0 +0.3
Pat Valaika 24 pre-arb 1100.7 0.5 +1.7
Mark Reynolds 33 FA-elig 1480.6 1.5 +0.5
Chad Bettis 28 arb 90.4 0.5 +0.8
Carlos Estévez 24 pre-arb 350.4 0.5 +0.7
Raimel Tapia 23 pre-arb 700.2 0.3 +0.3
Mike Dunn 32 FA-elig 680.2 4.0 -3.4
Zac Rosscup↔ CHC 29 pre-arb 90.1 0.1 +0.1
Carlos González 31 FA-elig 1360.0 20.0 -19.8
Shane Carle 25 pre-arb 30.0 0.1 -0.0
Chad Qualls 38 FA-elig 19-0.0 3.8 -3.9
Jairo Díaz 26 arb 4-0.0 0.5 -0.7
Tony Wolters 25 pre-arb 83-0.1 0.5 -0.8
Ryan McMahon 22 – 17-0.1 0.1 -0.4
Adam Ottavino 31 FA-elig 63-0.1 2.1 -2.4
Dustin Garneau↔ OAK 29 pre-arb 22-0.1 0.3 -0.8
Mike Tauchman 26 – 31-0.2 0.1 -0.8
Stephen Cardullo 29 pre-arb 15-0.3 0.5 -1.6
Jordan Lyles↔ SDP 26 FA-elig 33-0.3 2.8 -3.9
Cristhian Adames 25 arb 12-0.4 0.5 -1.8
Tom Murphy 26 pre-arb 12-0.5 0.5 -2.1
Ryan Hanigan 36 FA-elig 33-0.7 1.2 -3.5
Ian Desmond 31 FA-elig 95-0.8 8.0 -10.7
Alexi Amarista 28 FA-elig 96-1.0 1.1 -4.5

Key additions (new vs 2016)

PlayerfWAR
Kyle Freeland2.0
Antonio Senzatela1.2
Greg Holland1.1
Pat Neshek1.0
Jonathan Lucroy0.7
Mike Dunn0.2

Key subtractions (gone from 2016)

Player2016 fWAR
Boone Logan0.8
Daniel Descalso0.5
Jorge De La Rosa0.4
Jason Gurka0.1
Justin Miller0.1
Matt Carasiti0.0

Current & Historical Payroll

2017 payroll
$107.1M
2018 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2017, 2017–2023. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2017; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (9)

PlayerAgeSvc2017201820192020202120222023
Carlos González318.059$20.0MFREE AGENT
Ian Desmond317.027$8.0MFREE AGENT
Gerardo Parra307.145$8.0MFREE AGENT
Mike Dunn326.079$4.0MFREE AGENT
Chad Qualls3813.000$3.8MFREE AGENT
Pat Neshek368.159$2.6MFREE AGENT
Jonathan Lucroy316.136$2.0MFREE AGENT
Mark Reynolds339.138$1.5MFREE AGENT
Ryan Hanigan368.077$1.2MFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (9)

PlayerAgeSvc2017201820192020202120222023
Nolan Arenado263.155$11.8MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Charlie Blackmon304.102$7.3MARB 3FREE AGENT
Greg Holland315.028$6.0MFREE AGENT
Jake McGee305.127$5.9MFREE AGENT
DJ LeMahieu284.128$4.8MARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Chatwood275.039$4.4MFREE AGENT
Jordan Lyles265.020$2.8MFREE AGENT
Adam Ottavino315.087$2.1MFREE AGENT
Alexi Amarista285.040$1.1MFREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (23)

PlayerAgeSvc2017201820192020202120222023
Chad Bettis282.096$545kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Rusin302.092$545kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cristhian Adames251.052$540kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jairo Díaz261.064$540kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Anderson271.065$540kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tony Wolters251.000$540kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Trevor Story241.000$540kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Oberg271.080$540kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jon Gray251.062$540kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tom Murphy260.055$537kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carlos Estévez240.162$537kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Germán Márquez220.027$537kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Stephen Cardullo290.038$535kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Freeland240.000$535kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Antonio Senzatela220.000$535kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pat Valaika240.027$488kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeff Hoffman240.044$319kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Raimel Tapia230.031$292kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dustin Garneau290.124$288kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zac Rosscup292.105$147kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Tauchman260.000$132kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan McMahon220.000$111kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Shane Carle251.049$88kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Rockies 2017; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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Not enough history to chart.

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Pick a wider year range.

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payroll %{x:.2f}× lg · TAB %{y:+.1f}
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slot %{x} · %{customdata[1]:.1f} WAR
%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'COL',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});