RRosternomics

Tigers DET

GM: Bill Lajoie

Overview

CONTEND → steady
expensive & winning · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.08× league · TAB +8.7
+8.7TAB — talent above budget7th/26
+1.5WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)14th/26
10.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars4th/26
-5.6dead WAR — sub-replacement drag20th/26
20%dead money %5th/26
0.522win %10th/26
43.6roster fWAR7th/26
+1surplus $M (value vs cost)7th/26
$11Mpayroll $M8th/26

Roster

CFChet Lemon 144GKirk Gibson 20GJim Weaver 3G
LFLarry Herndon 136GNelson Simmons 25GJohnny Grubb 14G
RFKirk Gibson 126GAlejandro Sanchez 24GBarbaro Garbey 14G
SSAlan Trammell 149GDoug Baker 12GDoug Flynn 9G
2BLou Whitaker 150GDoug Flynn 26GTom Brookens 4G
3BTom Brookens 151GMarty Castillo 25GChris Pittaro 22G
1BDarrell Evans 113GDave Bergman 44GBarbaro Garbey 37G
STARTERSWalt Terrell 4.8WARJack Morris 4.7WARFrank Tanana 3.3WARDan Petry 2.9WARRandy O'Neal 1.1WAR
CLance Parrish 120GBob Melvin 41GMarty Castillo 32G
DHDarrell Evans 33GJohnny Grubb 31GNelson Simmons 30G
BULLPEN Willie Hernandez 31svAurelio Lopez 0hBill Scherrer 0hChuck Cary 0hBob Stoddard 0h
CLance Parrish 120 · Bob Melvin 41 · Marty Castillo 32
1BDarrell Evans 113 · Dave Bergman 44 · Barbaro Garbey 37
2BLou Whitaker 150 · Doug Flynn 26 · Tom Brookens 4
3BTom Brookens 151 · Marty Castillo 25 · Chris Pittaro 22
SSAlan Trammell 149 · Doug Baker 12 · Doug Flynn 9
LFLarry Herndon 136 · Nelson Simmons 25 · Johnny Grubb 14
CFChet Lemon 144 · Kirk Gibson 20 · Jim Weaver 3
RFKirk Gibson 126 · Alejandro Sanchez 24 · Barbaro Garbey 14
DHDarrell Evans 33 · Johnny Grubb 31 · Nelson Simmons 30
SPWalt Terrell 4.8 · Jack Morris 4.7 · Frank Tanana 3.3 · Dan Petry 2.9 · Randy O'Neal 1.1
BP Willie Hernandez 31 · Aurelio Lopez 0 · Bill Scherrer 0 · Chuck Cary 0 · Bob Stoddard 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

1985 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Kirk Gibson 28 FA-elig 1545.3 0.7 +0.7
Walt Terrell 27 arb 344.8 0.2 +1.1
Lou Whitaker 28 FA-elig 1524.7 0.7 +0.5
Jack Morris 30 FA-elig 354.7 0.9 +0.3
Darrell Evans 38 FA-elig 1514.2 1.1 -0.0
Lance Parrish 29 FA-elig 1404.1 0.8 +0.3
Chet Lemon 30 FA-elig 1453.7 0.7 +0.3
Frank Tanana↔ TEX 31 FA-elig 203.3 0.4 +0.5
Alan Trammell 27 FA-elig 1493.2 0.5 +0.3
Dan Petry 26 FA-elig 342.9 0.9 -0.1
Willie Hernandez 30 FA-elig 741.7 0.7 -0.2
Tom Brookens 31 FA-elig 1561.6 0.2 +0.2
Larry Herndon 31 FA-elig 1371.5 0.7 -0.3
Randy O'Neal 24 281.1
Juan Berenguer 30 FA-elig 310.9 0.2 -0.0
Mickey Mahler↔ WSN 32 30.6
Doug Bair↔ STL 35 210.4
Chuck Cary 25 160.3
Milt Wilcox 35 FA-elig 80.2 0.6 -0.5
Barbaro Garbey 28 860.2
Johnny Grubb 36 FA-elig 780.0 0.2 -0.2
Bob Stoddard 28 8-0.1
Jim Weaver 25 12-0.1
Rusty Kuntz 30 5-0.1
Mike Laga 25 9-0.1
Chris Pittaro 23 28-0.2
Scotti Madison 25 6-0.2
Nelson Simmons 22 75-0.2
Doug Flynn↔ WSN 34 FA-elig 32-0.3 0.3 -0.3
Alejandro Sanchez 26 71-0.3
Bob Melvin 23 41-0.3
Doug Baker 24 15-0.4
Bill Scherrer 27 arb 48-0.7 0.1 -0.3
Marty Castillo 28 arb 57-0.7 0.1 -0.3
Dave Bergman 32 FA-elig 69-0.9 0.3 -0.5
Aurelio Lopez 36 FA-elig 51-1.0 0.6 -0.8

Key additions (new vs 1984)

PlayerfWAR
Kirk Gibson5.3
Walt Terrell4.8
Lou Whitaker4.7
Jack Morris4.7
Darrell Evans4.2
Lance Parrish4.1

Key subtractions (gone from 1984)

Player1984 fWAR

Current & Historical Payroll

1985 payroll
$10.6M

What the front office was committed to as of 1985, 1985–1991. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (19)

PlayerAgeSvc1985198619871988198919901991
Darrell Evans3816.000$1.1M$793k$525k$860kFREE AGENT
Jack Morris308.000$885k$875k$1.9M$2.0M$2.0M$2.1MFREE AGENT
Dan Petry266.000$875k$875k$975kFREE AGENT$475k$276k
Lance Parrish298.000$767k$850kFREE AGENT
Kirk Gibson286.000$685k$1.2M$1.3MFREE AGENT
Larry Herndon3111.000$675k$688k$225k$375kFREE AGENT
Lou Whitaker288.000$670k$670k$420k$975k$1.0M$1.8M$2.0M
Chet Lemon3010.000$670k$699k$699k$829k$829k$829kFREE AGENT
Willie Hernandez308.000$660k$960k$1.1M$1.2M$1.3MFREE AGENT
Aurelio Lopez3611.000$575kFREE AGENT
Milt Wilcox3515.000$550kFREE AGENT
Alan Trammell278.000$517k$567k$617k$1.0M$1.1M$1.8M$2.2M
Frank Tanana3112.000$358k$662k$662k$1.1M$925k$1.1M$1.9M
Doug Flynn3410.000$273kFREE AGENT
Dave Bergman3210.000$262k$317k$332k$360k$438k$525k$575k
Tom Brookens316.000$250k$325k$360k$350kFREE AGENT
Johnny Grubb3613.000$250k$250k$365kFREE AGENT
Juan Berenguer307.000$240kFREE AGENT
Doug Bair359.000FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (5)

PlayerAgeSvc1985198619871988198919901991
Walt Terrell273.000$178kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bill Scherrer273.000$100kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Marty Castillo284.000$76kARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Laga253.000ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bob Stoddard284.000ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (12)

PlayerAgeSvc1985198619871988198919901991
Doug Baker241.000Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chuck Cary250.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Barbaro Garbey281.000Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rusty Kuntz30
Scotti Madison250.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mickey Mahler32
Bob Melvin230.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Randy O'Neal241.000Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Pittaro23
Alejandro Sanchez26
Nelson Simmons22
Jim Weaver25

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Tigers 1985; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3