RRosternomics
𝕏

Tigers DET

‹ ›

GM: Dave Dombrowski

Overview

CONTEND ↘ cooling
expensive & winning · year 5 in this regime · payroll 1.48× league · TAB +5.1
+5.1TAB — talent above budget10th/30
+3.1WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)12th/30
10.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars2nd/30
-3.4dead WAR — sub-replacement drag5th/30
13%dead money %3rd/30
0.556win %5th/30
44.0roster fWAR4th/30
-38surplus $M (value vs cost)23rd/30
$168Mpayroll $M4th/30

2014: made playoffs · 90–72. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFRajai Davis 48GEzequiel Carrera 38GDon Kelly 6G
LFRajai Davis 99GJ.D. Martinez 83GDon Kelly 8G
RFTorii Hunter 128GJ.D. Martinez 34GDon Kelly 11G
SSAndrew Romine 83GEugenio Suárez 81GDanny Worth 13G
2BIan Kinsler 160GAndrew Romine 12GHernán Pérez 5G
3BNick Castellanos 145GDon Kelly 41GMiguel Cabrera 10G
1BMiguel Cabrera 126GVictor Martinez 35GDon Kelly 30G
STARTERSMax Scherzer 5.5WARAníbal Sánchez 3.4WARJustin Verlander 3.3WARRick Porcello 3.0WARDavid Price 2.3WAR
CAlex Avila 122GBryan Holaday 58GJames McCann 6G
DHVictor Martinez 115GMiguel Cabrera 25GTorii Hunter 7G
BULLPEN★ Joe Nathan 35svJoba Chamberlain 29hAl Alburquerque 17hIan Krol 10hPhil Coke 5hBlaine Hardy 4hJim Johnson 2hJoakim Soria 1h
CAlex Avila 122 · Bryan Holaday 58 · James McCann 6
1BMiguel Cabrera 126 · Victor Martinez 35 · Don Kelly 30
2BIan Kinsler 160 · Andrew Romine 12 · Hernán Pérez 5
3BNick Castellanos 145 · Don Kelly 41 · Miguel Cabrera 10
SSAndrew Romine 83 · Eugenio Suárez 81 · Danny Worth 13
LFRajai Davis 99 · J.D. Martinez 83 · Don Kelly 8
CFRajai Davis 48 · Ezequiel Carrera 38 · Don Kelly 6
RFTorii Hunter 128 · J.D. Martinez 34 · Don Kelly 11
DHVictor Martinez 115 · Miguel Cabrera 25 · Torii Hunter 7
SPMax Scherzer 5.5 · Aníbal Sánchez 3.4 · Justin Verlander 3.3 · Rick Porcello 3.0 · David Price 2.3
BP★ Joe Nathan 35 · Joba Chamberlain 29 · Al Alburquerque 17 · Ian Krol 10 · Phil Coke 5 · Blaine Hardy 4 · Jim Johnson 2 · Joakim Soria 1

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2014 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Max Scherzer 29 FA-elig 335.5 15.5 +0.7
Miguel Cabrera 31 FA-elig 1595.2 22.0 -6.9
Victor Martinez 35 FA-elig 1514.6 12.0 +1.5
Ian Kinsler 32 FA-elig 1614.5 16.0 -2.8
J.D. Martinez 26 pre-arb 1233.8 0.5 +10.7
Aníbal Sánchez 30 FA-elig 223.4 15.8 -5.8
Justin Verlander 31 FA-elig 323.3 20.0 -10.4
Rick Porcello 25 arb 323.0 8.5 +0.2
David Price↔ TBR 28 FA-elig 112.3 4.5 +2.3
Rajai Davis 33 FA-elig 1342.2 5.0 +1.5
Austin Jackson↔ SEA 27 arb 1001.7 3.9 +1.1
Alex Avila 27 arb 1241.3 4.2 -0.5
Torii Hunter 38 FA-elig 1421.1 14.0 -10.7
Drew Smyly↔ TBR 25 pre-arb 211.1 0.4 +2.8
Eugenio Suárez 22 – 850.9 0.3 +2.3
Joba Chamberlain 28 FA-elig 690.7 2.5 -0.4
Ezequiel Carrera 27 pre-arb 450.5 0.2 +1.4
Kyle Lobstein 24 – 70.5 0.1 +1.2
Nick Castellanos 22 pre-arb 1480.4 0.5 +0.6
Blaine Hardy 27 – 380.3 0.3 +0.7
Kyle Ryan 22 – 60.2 0.1 +0.5
Joe Nathan 39 FA-elig 620.2 9.0 -8.5
Corey Knebel 22 – 80.2 0.1 +0.5
Al Alburquerque 28 arb 720.2 0.8 -0.4
Drew VerHagen 23 – 10.1 0.1 +0.2
Evan Reed 28 pre-arb 320.1 0.5 -0.3
Chad Smith 24 pre-arb 100.1 0.0 +0.2
Melvin Mercedes 23 – 10.0 – –
Tyler Collins 24 pre-arb 180.0 0.1 -0.0
Robbie Ray 22 – 90.0 0.2 -0.1
Andrew Romine 28 arb 940.0 0.5 -0.4
Hernán Pérez 23 pre-arb 80.0 0.1 -0.1
Phil Coke 31 FA-elig 62-0.0 1.9 -1.9
Steven Moya 22 – 11-0.0 – –
Patrick McCoy 25 – 14-0.0 – –
Danny Worth 28 pre-arb 20-0.0 0.0 -0.2
Jim Johnson↔ OAK 31 FA-elig 16-0.1 3.0 -3.1
Justin Miller 27 – 8-0.1 – –
Buck Farmer 23 – 4-0.1 0.1 -0.4
Jose Ortega 25 – 1-0.1 – –
James McCann 24 – 9-0.1 0.1 -0.4
Joakim Soria↔ TEX 30 FA-elig 13-0.1 1.5 -1.9
Kevin Whelan 30 – 1-0.1 – –
Don Kelly 34 FA-elig 95-0.2 1.0 -1.5
Luke Putkonen 28 pre-arb 2-0.2 0.5 -1.1
Álex González 37 FA-elig 9-0.4 1.1 -2.1
Ian Krol 23 pre-arb 45-0.5 0.5 -2.1
Bryan Holaday 26 pre-arb 62-1.3 0.5 -4.4

Key additions (new vs 2013)

PlayerfWAR
Ian Kinsler4.5
J.D. Martinez3.8
David Price2.3
Rajai Davis2.2
Eugenio Suárez0.9
Joba Chamberlain0.7

Key subtractions (gone from 2013)

Player2013 fWAR
Doug Fister4.2
Jhonny Peralta3.6
Omar Infante2.9
Prince Fielder2.7
Joaquín Benoit1.4
Brayan Peña0.5

Current & Historical Payroll

2014 payroll
$167.8M

What the front office was committed to as of 2014, 2014–2020. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (11)

PlayerAgeSvc2014201520162017201820192020
Miguel Cabrera3110.101$22.0M$22.0M$28.0M$28.0M$30.0M$30.0M$30.0M
Justin Verlander318.002$20.0M$28.0M$28.0M$23.8MFREE AGENT
Ian Kinsler328.000$16.0M$16.0M$14.0M$11.0MFREE AGENT
Aníbal Sánchez307.099$15.8M$16.8M$16.8M$16.8MFREE AGENT
Torii Hunter3814.132$14.0MFREE AGENT
Victor Martinez3510.114$12.0M$14.0M$18.0M$18.0M$18.0MFREE AGENT
Joe Nathan3912.120$9.0M$10.0MFREE AGENT
Rajai Davis336.167$5.0M$5.0MFREE AGENT
Joba Chamberlain286.055$2.5M$833kFREE AGENT
Joakim Soria307.000$1.5M$4.2MFREE AGENT
Álex González3716.000$1.1MFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (9)

PlayerAgeSvc2014201520162017201820192020
Max Scherzer295.079$15.5MFREE AGENT
Rick Porcello254.170$8.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
David Price284.164$4.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Alex Avila274.061$4.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Austin Jackson274.000$3.9MARB 3FREE AGENT
Jim Johnson315.165$3.0MFREE AGENT
Phil Coke315.028$1.9MFREE AGENT
Don Kelly344.138$1.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin Miller275.022—FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (28)

PlayerAgeSvc2014201520162017201820192020
Al Alburquerque282.147$838kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luke Putkonen282.018$510kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andrew Romine281.049$504kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ian Krol230.118$504kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Evan Reed280.082$503kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bryan Holaday260.107$502kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
J.D. Martinez262.047$500kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Castellanos220.029$500kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Drew Smyly251.154$390kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eugenio Suárez220.000$317kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Blaine Hardy270.000$284kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ezequiel Carrera271.010$161kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Robbie Ray220.000$150kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Collins241.080$131kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Buck Farmer230.000$118kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Lobstein240.000$90kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Ryan220.000$82kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
James McCann240.000$79kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Hernán Pérez230.065$77kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Drew VerHagen230.000$76kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Corey Knebel220.000$71kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Danny Worth282.049$44kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chad Smith24–$3k
Kevin Whelan30–—
Jose Ortega251.049—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Patrick McCoy25–—
Melvin Mercedes23–—
Steven Moya220.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Tigers 2014; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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Not enough history to chart.

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Pick a wider year range.

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slot %{x} · %{customdata[1]:.1f} WAR
%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'DET',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});