RRosternomics
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Astros HOU

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GM: Al Rosen

Overview

REBUILD → steady
cheap & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 0.93× league · TAB -1.0
-1.0TAB — talent above budget16th/26
+2.0WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)13th/26
7.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars16th/26
-3.9dead WAR — sub-replacement drag10th/26
10%dead money %1st/26
0.512win %13th/26
32.3roster fWAR15th/26
-2surplus $M (value vs cost)12th/26
$9Mpayroll $M20th/26

Roster

CFKevin Bass 105GJerry Mumphrey 58GChris Jones 9G
LFJose Cruz 136GJim Pankovits 14GKevin Bass 10G
RFJerry Mumphrey 68GTerry Puhl 53GKevin Bass 39G
SSCraig Reynolds 102GDickie Thon 79GBert Pena 6G
2BBill Doran 147GJim Pankovits 21GPhil Garner 15G
3BPhil Garner 123GDenny Walling 51GGerman Rivera 11G
1BGlenn Davis 89GDenny Walling 46GHarry Spilman 19G
STARTERSNolan Ryan Jr. 4.3WARBob Knepper 2.9WARMike Scott 2.0WARCharlie Kerfeld 0.1WARJeff Heathcock -0.2WAR
CMark Bailey 110GAlan Ashby 60GJohn Mizerock 15G
BULLPEN★ Dave Smith 27svFrank DiPino 0hBill Dawley 0hJeff Calhoun 0hJulio Solano 0hMike Madden 0hMark Ross 0hJim Deshaies 0h
CMark Bailey 110 · Alan Ashby 60 · John Mizerock 15
1BGlenn Davis 89 · Denny Walling 46 · Harry Spilman 19
2BBill Doran 147 · Jim Pankovits 21 · Phil Garner 15
3BPhil Garner 123 · Denny Walling 51 · German Rivera 11
SSCraig Reynolds 102 · Dickie Thon 79 · Bert Pena 6
LFJose Cruz 136 · Jim Pankovits 14 · Kevin Bass 10
CFKevin Bass 105 · Jerry Mumphrey 58 · Chris Jones 9
RFJerry Mumphrey 68 · Terry Puhl 53 · Kevin Bass 39
SPNolan Ryan Jr. 4.3 · Bob Knepper 2.9 · Mike Scott 2.0 · Charlie Kerfeld 0.1 · Jeff Heathcock -0.2
BP★ Dave Smith 27 · Frank DiPino 0 · Bill Dawley 0 · Jeff Calhoun 0 · Julio Solano 0 · Mike Madden 0 · Mark Ross 0 · Jim Deshaies 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

1985 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Bill Doran 27 arb 1485.0 0.3 +1.0
Nolan Ryan Jr. 38 FA-elig 354.3 1.4 -0.2
Jose Cruz 37 FA-elig 1413.1 0.8 +0.0
Bob Knepper 31 FA-elig 382.9 0.8 -0.1
Mark Bailey 23 – 1142.4 – –
Kevin Bass 26 arb 1502.2 0.2 +0.4
Mike Scott 30 FA-elig 362.0 0.4 +0.2
Craig Reynolds 32 FA-elig 1072.0 0.3 +0.2
Glenn Davis 24 pre-arb 1001.9 0.1 +0.4
Denny Walling 31 FA-elig 1191.5 0.3 +0.0
Alan Ashby 33 FA-elig 651.4 0.4 -0.1
Dave Smith 30 arb 641.3 0.5 -0.1
Jerry Mumphrey 32 – 1301.1 – –
Terry Puhl 28 FA-elig 570.9 0.5 -0.3
Jeff Calhoun 27 – 440.7 – –
Joe Niekro↔ NYY 40 FA-elig 320.7 0.8 -0.6
Phil Garner 36 FA-elig 1350.7 0.7 -0.6
Dickie Thon 27 FA-elig 840.7 0.7 -0.5
Jim Pankovits 29 – 750.4 – –
Enos Cabell↔ LAD 35 FA-elig 600.4 0.1 -0.0
Mark Knudson 24 – 20.2 – –
Bert Pena 25 – 200.2 – –
Charlie Kerfeld 21 – 110.1 – –
Jim Deshaies 25 – 20.0 – –
Mike Madden 27 – 130.0 – –
Chris Jones 27 – 310.0 – –
John Mizerock 24 – 15-0.1 – –
Eric Bullock 25 – 18-0.1 – –
German Rivera 24 – 13-0.1 – –
Ron Mathis 26 – 23-0.2 – –
Tim Tolman 29 – 31-0.2 – –
Jeff Heathcock 25 – 14-0.2 – –
Mark Ross 27 – 8-0.2 – –
Bill Dawley 27 pre-arb 49-0.4 0.3 -0.4
Julio Solano 25 – 20-0.4 – –
Ty Gainey 24 – 13-0.4 – –
Harry Spilman 30 FA-elig 44-0.7 0.2 -0.3
Frank DiPino 28 arb 54-0.9 0.3 -0.5

Key additions (new vs 1984)

PlayerfWAR
Bill Doran5.0
Nolan Ryan Jr.4.3
Jose Cruz3.1
Bob Knepper2.9
Mark Bailey2.4
Kevin Bass2.2

Key subtractions (gone from 1984)

Player1984 fWAR
—

Current & Historical Payroll

1985 payroll
$9.1M

What the front office was committed to as of 1985, 1985–1991. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (14)

PlayerAgeSvc1985198619871988198919901991
Nolan Ryan Jr.3819.000$1.4M$1.1M$1.2M$1.0MFREE AGENT
Bob Knepper319.000$850k$1.0M$1.0M$1.0M$43kFREE AGENT
Jose Cruz3715.000$796k$755k$755kFREE AGENT
Joe Niekro4018.000$754kFREE AGENT
Phil Garner3612.000$745k$600k$279kFREE AGENT
Dickie Thon276.000$675k$600k$675kFREE AGENT
Terry Puhl288.000$542k$850k$900k$950k$950k$800kFREE AGENT
Alan Ashby3312.000$417k$525k$575k$450k$550kFREE AGENT
Mike Scott306.000$360k$667k$692k$667k$1.3M$2.0M$2.4M
Craig Reynolds3210.000$350k$417k$417k$500k$600kFREE AGENT
Denny Walling3110.000$342k$367k$595k$445kFREE AGENT
Harry Spilman307.000$160kFREE AGENT$191k$150k
Enos Cabell3513.000$150kFREE AGENT
Jerry Mumphrey3211.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (4)

PlayerAgeSvc1985198619871988198919901991
Dave Smith305.000$500kFREE AGENT
Bill Doran273.000$325kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Frank DiPino284.000$255kARB 3FREE AGENT
Kevin Bass263.000$155kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (20)

PlayerAgeSvc1985198619871988198919901991
Bill Dawley272.000$295kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Glenn Davis241.000$60kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mark Bailey231.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eric Bullock25–—
Jeff Calhoun271.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jim Deshaies251.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ty Gainey24–—
Jeff Heathcock252.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Jones27–—
Charlie Kerfeld210.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mark Knudson240.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Madden27–—
Ron Mathis26–—
John Mizerock242.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jim Pankovits291.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bert Pena25–—
German Rivera24–—
Mark Ross27–—
Julio Solano252.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tim Tolman29–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Astros 1985; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.