RRosternomics
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Astros HOU

‹ ›

GM: Gerry Hunsicker

Overview

CONTEND ↗ rising
expensive & winning · year 4 in this regime · payroll 1.1× league · TAB +10.0
+10.0TAB — talent above budget2nd/30
+8.9WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)6th/30
9.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars5th/30
-4.8dead WAR — sub-replacement drag16th/30
10%dead money %4th/30
0.568win %6th/30
45.3roster fWAR4th/30
+5surplus $M (value vs cost)11th/30
$73Mpayroll $M10th/30

2004: made playoffs · 92–70. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFCarlos Beltrán 158GCraig Biggio 66GJason Lane 17G
LFCraig Biggio 83GLance Berkman 70GJason Lane 35G
RFLance Berkman 90GJason Lane 24GOrlando Palmeiro 13G
SSAdam Everett 99GJose Vizcaino 64GEric Bruntlett 33G
2BJeff Kent 139GJose Vizcaino 37GChris Burke 7G
3BMorgan Ensberg 118GMike Lamb 57GJose Vizcaino 21G
1BJeff Bagwell 152GMike Lamb 10GJose Vizcaino 8G
STARTERSRoy Oswalt 6.5WARRoger Clemens 5.8WARAndy Pettitte 2.0WARWade Miller 1.3WARBrandon Backe 0.9WAR
CBrad Ausmus 128GRaúl Chávez 61GChris Tremie 1G
DHJeff Bagwell 2GJeff Kent 2GCraig Biggio 1G
BULLPEN★ Brad Lidge 29svDan Miceli 24hChad Qualls 9hDan Wheeler 5hRuss Springer 5hMike Gallo 4hChad Harville 4hKirk Bullinger 1h
CBrad Ausmus 128 · Raúl Chávez 61 · Chris Tremie 1
1BJeff Bagwell 152 · Mike Lamb 10 · Jose Vizcaino 8
2BJeff Kent 139 · Jose Vizcaino 37 · Chris Burke 7
3BMorgan Ensberg 118 · Mike Lamb 57 · Jose Vizcaino 21
SSAdam Everett 99 · Jose Vizcaino 64 · Eric Bruntlett 33
LFCraig Biggio 83 · Lance Berkman 70 · Jason Lane 35
CFCarlos Beltrán 158 · Craig Biggio 66 · Jason Lane 17
RFLance Berkman 90 · Jason Lane 24 · Orlando Palmeiro 13
DHJeff Bagwell 2 · Jeff Kent 2 · Craig Biggio 1
SPRoy Oswalt 6.5 · Roger Clemens 5.8 · Andy Pettitte 2.0 · Wade Miller 1.3 · Brandon Backe 0.9
BP★ Brad Lidge 29 · Dan Miceli 24 · Chad Qualls 9 · Dan Wheeler 5 · Russ Springer 5 · Mike Gallo 4 · Chad Harville 4 · Kirk Bullinger 1

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2004 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Roy Oswalt 26 arb 366.5 3.2 +7.9
Lance Berkman 28 arb 1606.2 6.5 +4.1
Roger Clemens 41 FA-elig 335.8 5.0 +5.0
Jeff Kent 36 FA-elig 1454.2 10.0 -2.8
Carlos Beltrán↔ KCR 27 FA-elig 904.0 5.1 +1.8
Brad Lidge 27 pre-arb 803.7 0.4 +6.0
Jeff Bagwell 36 FA-elig 1563.6 16.0 -9.8
Adam Everett 27 arb 1042.5 0.4 +3.9
Andy Pettitte 32 FA-elig 152.0 5.5 -2.0
Mike Lamb 28 arb 1121.8 0.4 +2.7
Wade Miller 27 arb 161.3 3.4 -1.1
Craig Biggio 38 FA-elig 1561.3 3.0 -0.8
Dan Miceli 33 FA-elig 741.2 0.6 +1.4
Brandon Backe 26 – 340.9 – –
Pete Munro 29 – 220.9 – –
Jason Lane 27 pre-arb 1070.8 0.3 +1.1
Octavio Dotel↔ OAK 30 arb 320.7 1.2 +0.1
Richard Hidalgo↔ NYM 29 FA-elig 580.6 5.0 -4.1
Morgan Ensberg 28 arb 1310.5 0.4 +0.5
Jose Vizcaino 36 FA-elig 1380.4 1.2 -0.4
Eric Bruntlett 26 pre-arb 450.4 0.3 +0.4
Darren Oliver↔ MIA 33 FA-elig 100.3 0.3 +0.2
Chad Qualls 25 – 250.3 – –
Dan Wheeler↔ NYM 26 arb 140.1 0.1 +0.1
Tim Redding 26 arb 270.1 0.4 -0.3
Russ Springer 35 – 160.1 – –
Jeremy Griffiths 26 – 10.0 – –
Chris Tremie 34 – 10.0 – –
Willy Taveras 22 – 10-0.1 – –
Jared Fernandez 32 arb 2-0.1 0.3 -0.5
David Weathers↔ MIA 34 FA-elig 26-0.1 1.5 -1.8
Jason Alfaro 26 – 7-0.1 – –
Orlando Palmeiro 35 FA-elig 102-0.1 0.8 -1.0
Chad Harville↔ OAK 27 arb 56-0.2 0.3 -0.6
Chris Burke 24 – 17-0.2 – –
Ricky Stone↔ SDP 29 arb 16-0.2 0.1 -0.5
Kirk Bullinger 34 – 27-0.3 – –
Brandon Duckworth 28 arb 19-0.4 0.4 -1.1
Brad Ausmus 35 FA-elig 129-0.5 1.0 -1.8
Carlos Hernández 24 – 9-0.7 – –
Mike Gallo 27 – 69-0.9 – –
Raul Chavez 31 FA-elig 64-0.9 0.3 -1.9

Key additions (new vs 2003)

PlayerfWAR
Roger Clemens5.8
Carlos Beltrán4.0
Andy Pettitte2.0
Mike Lamb1.8
Brandon Backe0.9
Darren Oliver0.3

Key subtractions (gone from 2003)

Player2003 fWAR
Billy Wagner2.3
Ron Villone1.3
Jeriome Robertson1.0
Kirk Saarloos0.6
Geoff Blum0.5
Rodrigo Rosario0.2

Current & Historical Payroll

2004 payroll
$73.3M

What the front office was committed to as of 2004, 2004–2010. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (16)

PlayerAgeSvc2004200520062007200820092010
Jeff Bagwell3613.000$16.0M$18.0MFREE AGENT
Jeff Kent3612.000$10.0MFREE AGENT
Andy Pettitte329.000$5.5M$8.5M$16.4MFREE AGENT
Carlos Beltrán276.000$5.1MFREE AGENT
Richard Hidalgo297.000$5.0MFREE AGENT
Roger Clemens4120.000$5.0M$18.0M$12.2MFREE AGENT
Craig Biggio3816.000$3.0M$3.0M$4.0M$5.2MFREE AGENT
David Weathers3413.000$1.5MFREE AGENT
Jose Vizcaino3615.000$1.2M$1.2MFREE AGENT
Brad Ausmus3511.000$1.0M$3.0MFREE AGENT$4.0M$2.0M
Orlando Palmeiro359.000$750k$800k$950k$950kFREE AGENT
Dan Miceli3311.000$600kFREE AGENT
Raul Chavez318.000$315k$360kFREE AGENT
Darren Oliver3311.000$268kFREE AGENT
Russ Springer3512.000—$550k$750kFREE AGENT
Kirk Bullinger346.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (15)

PlayerAgeSvc2004200520062007200820092010
Lance Berkman285.000$6.5MFREE AGENT
Wade Miller275.000$3.4MFREE AGENT
Roy Oswalt263.000$3.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Octavio Dotel305.000$1.2MFREE AGENT
Tim Redding263.000$395kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Duckworth283.000$390kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Morgan Ensberg284.000$380kARB 3FREE AGENT
Adam Everett273.000$370kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Lamb284.000$352kARB 3FREE AGENT
Jared Fernandez323.000$325kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chad Harville275.000$291kFREE AGENT
Ricky Stone293.000$147kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dan Wheeler265.000$95kFREE AGENT
Pete Munro295.000—FREE AGENT
Carlos Hernández243.000—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (11)

PlayerAgeSvc2004200520062007200820092010
Brad Lidge272.000$360kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eric Bruntlett261.000$308kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Lane272.000$308kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Tremie34–—
Brandon Backe262.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeremy Griffiths26–—
Chris Burke240.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Gallo271.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chad Qualls250.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Willy Taveras220.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Alfaro26–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Astros 2004; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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Not enough history to chart.

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Pick a wider year range.

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payroll %{x:.2f}× lg · TAB %{y:+.1f}
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slot %{x} · %{customdata[1]:.1f} WAR
%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'HOU',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});