RRosternomics
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Astros HOU

‹ ›

GM: Jeff Luhnow

Overview

WINDOW ↗ rising
cheap & winning · year 1 in this regime · payroll 0.69× league · TAB +15.2
+15.2TAB — talent above budget2nd/30
+8.7WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)6th/30
8.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars7th/30
-0.9dead WAR — sub-replacement drag1st/30
35%dead money %12th/30
0.531win %10th/30
44.9roster fWAR4th/30
+58surplus $M (value vs cost)1st/30
$84Mpayroll $M25th/30

2015: made playoffs · 86–76. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFCarlos Gómez 111GJake Marisnick 99GColby Rasmus 43G
LFPreston Tucker 79GColby Rasmus 72GRobbie Grossman 17G
RFGeorge Springer 93GColby Rasmus 43GPreston Tucker 14G
SSCarlos Correa 99GMarwin Gonzalez 32GJonathan Villar 22G
2BJose Altuve 153GMarwin Gonzalez 15GJonathan Villar 3G
3BLuis Valbuena 99GJed Lowrie 47GMarwin Gonzalez 21G
1BChris Carter 115GMarwin Gonzalez 43GLuis Valbuena 31G
STARTERSDallas Keuchel 5.7WARCollin McHugh 3.5WARLance McCullers Jr. 2.5WARVince Velasquez 0.9WARScott Feldman 0.8WAR
CJason Castro 103GHank Conger 69GMax Stassi 10G
DHEvan Gattis 136GChris Carter 8GJon Singleton 4G
BULLPEN★ Luke Gregerson 31svPat Neshek 28hWill Harris 13hTony Sipp 13hOliver Pérez 10hChad Qualls 10hJoe Thatcher 6hJosh Fields 5h
CJason Castro 103 · Hank Conger 69 · Max Stassi 10
1BChris Carter 115 · Marwin Gonzalez 43 · Luis Valbuena 31
2BJose Altuve 153 · Marwin Gonzalez 15 · Jonathan Villar 3
3BLuis Valbuena 99 · Jed Lowrie 47 · Marwin Gonzalez 21
SSCarlos Correa 99 · Marwin Gonzalez 32 · Jonathan Villar 22
LFPreston Tucker 79 · Colby Rasmus 72 · Robbie Grossman 17
CFCarlos Gómez 111 · Jake Marisnick 99 · Colby Rasmus 43
RFGeorge Springer 93 · Colby Rasmus 43 · Preston Tucker 14
DHEvan Gattis 136 · Chris Carter 8 · Jon Singleton 4
SPDallas Keuchel 5.7 · Collin McHugh 3.5 · Lance McCullers Jr. 2.5 · Vince Velasquez 0.9 · Scott Feldman 0.8
BP★ Luke Gregerson 31 · Pat Neshek 28 · Will Harris 13 · Tony Sipp 13 · Oliver Pérez 10 · Chad Qualls 10 · Joe Thatcher 6 · Josh Fields 5

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2015 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Dallas Keuchel 27 arb 335.7 0.5 +17.5
Jose Altuve 25 arb 1544.4 2.5 +11.5
George Springer 25 pre-arb 1023.9 0.5 +11.7
Collin McHugh 28 arb 323.5 0.5 +10.6
Carlos Correa 20 – 993.4 0.3 +10.5
Colby Rasmus 28 FA-elig 1372.9 8.0 +1.1
Lance McCullers Jr. 21 – 222.5 0.3 +7.6
Jason Castro 28 arb 1042.5 4.0 +3.8
Jake Marisnick 24 pre-arb 1331.8 0.5 +5.1
Luis Valbuena 29 FA-elig 1321.5 4.2 +0.7
Marwin Gonzalez 26 arb 1201.5 1.1 +3.6
Josh Fields 29 pre-arb 541.2 0.5 +3.2
Luke Gregerson 31 FA-elig 641.1 6.0 -2.4
Jed Lowrie 31 FA-elig 691.1 8.0 -4.5
Tony Sipp 31 FA-elig 600.9 2.4 +0.5
Vince Velasquez 23 – 190.9 0.2 +2.6
Hank Conger 27 arb 730.9 1.1 +1.7
Scott Feldman 32 FA-elig 180.8 10.0 -7.4
Carlos Gómez↔ MIL 29 FA-elig 410.7 2.9 -0.5
Preston Tucker 24 – 980.5 0.4 +1.3
Mike Fiers↔ MIL 30 arb 100.5 0.2 +1.5
Chad Qualls 36 FA-elig 600.4 3.0 -1.7
Will Harris 30 arb 680.4 0.5 +0.7
Brett Oberholtzer 25 pre-arb 80.3 0.5 +0.6
Chris Carter 28 arb 1290.3 4.2 -3.2
Evan Gattis 28 pre-arb 1530.3 0.5 +0.3
Joe Thatcher 33 FA-elig 430.3 1.0 -0.2
Roberto Hernandez 34 FA-elig 200.3 2.6 -1.8
Max Stassi 24 pre-arb 110.2 0.1 +0.5
Jonathan Villar 24 pre-arb 530.2 0.3 +0.4
Pat Neshek 34 FA-elig 660.2 5.5 -5.0
Asher Wojciechowski 26 pre-arb 50.1 0.1 +0.4
Matt Duffy 26 pre-arb 80.1 0.1 +0.2
Oliver Pérez↔ ARI 33 FA-elig 220.1 0.8 -0.5
Domingo Santana↔ MIL 22 – 140.1 0.0 +0.3
Brad Peacock 27 arb 10.1 0.5 -0.3
Dan Straily 26 pre-arb 40.1 0.1 +0.1
L.J. Hoes 25 pre-arb 80.0 0.0 +0.1
Jon Singleton 23 pre-arb 190.0 2.0 -1.9
Kevin Chapman 27 pre-arb 30.0 0.0 +0.0
Scott Kazmir↔ OAK 31 FA-elig 13-0.1 5.5 -5.7
Jake Buchanan 25 pre-arb 5-0.1 0.1 -0.3
Michael Feliz 22 – 5-0.1 0.1 -0.4
Alex Presley 29 arb 8-0.2 1.0 -1.5
Samuel Deduno 31 arb 9-0.2 0.5 -1.0
Robbie Grossman 25 pre-arb 24-0.3 0.5 -1.5

Key additions (new vs 2014)

PlayerfWAR
Carlos Correa3.4
Colby Rasmus2.9
Lance McCullers Jr.2.5
Luis Valbuena1.5
Luke Gregerson1.1
Jed Lowrie1.1

Key subtractions (gone from 2014)

Player2014 fWAR
Dexter Fowler2.1
Carlos Corporán1.2
Jarred Cosart0.9
Enrique Hernández0.7
Gregorio Petit0.5
Nick Tropeano0.4

Current & Historical Payroll

2015 payroll
$83.7M
2016 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2015, 2015–2021. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2015; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (11)

PlayerAgeSvc2015201620172018201920202021
Scott Feldman328.091$10.0MFREE AGENT
Colby Rasmus286.000$8.0MFREE AGENT
Jed Lowrie316.111$8.0MFREE AGENT
Luke Gregerson316.000$6.0MFREE AGENT
Pat Neshek346.159$5.5MFREE AGENT
Scott Kazmir318.119$5.5MFREE AGENT
Chad Qualls3610.058$3.0MFREE AGENT
Carlos Gómez297.141$2.9MFREE AGENT
Roberto Hernandez349.000$2.6MFREE AGENT
Joe Thatcher336.068$1.0MFREE AGENT
Oliver Pérez3310.144$786kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (7)

PlayerAgeSvc2015201620172018201920202021
Luis Valbuena294.148$4.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Carter283.159$4.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Castro284.104$4.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Jose Altuve253.072$2.5MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tony Sipp315.100$2.4MFREE AGENT
Hank Conger273.051$1.1MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Fiers304.000$165kARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (28)

PlayerAgeSvc2015201620172018201920202021
Jon Singleton230.119$2.0MPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Marwin Gonzalez262.133$1.1MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alex Presley292.162$1.0MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Evan Gattis282.000$526kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Samuel Deduno312.096$525kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dallas Keuchel272.089$524kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Fields292.000$517kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Collin McHugh281.084$516kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brad Peacock271.124$516kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brett Oberholtzer252.000$516kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Robbie Grossman251.056$515kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Will Harris301.159$514kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
George Springer250.166$513kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jake Marisnick240.145$511kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Preston Tucker240.000$385kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carlos Correa200.000$330kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Lance McCullers Jr.210.000$330kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jonathan Villar241.018$266kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Vince Velasquez230.000$230kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Duffy260.000$141kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Max Stassi240.068$100kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Feliz220.000$97kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Asher Wojciechowski260.087$78kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jake Buchanan250.080$69kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dan Straily261.100$67kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
L.J. Hoes251.050$44kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Domingo Santana220.015$37kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kevin Chapman270.116$33kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Astros 2015; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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Not enough history to chart.

'; return; } const f=+document.getElementById('yfrom').value, t=+document.getElementById('yto').value, w=+document.getElementById('win').value; document.getElementById('yflab').textContent=f; document.getElementById('ytlab').textContent=t; document.getElementById('winlab').textContent = w===1?'raw':(w+'-yr'); const dark=document.documentElement.getAttribute('data-theme')==='dark'; const ink=dark?'#cdd4dc':'#1d2630', grid=dark?'#2c313a':'#d6dbe2', refc=dark?'#5a636d':'#9aa3ad', dirc=dark?'#ffffff':'#1d2630'; const col=contrastColor(TEAMCOL,dark); function sm(a,w){const h=(w-1)/2,o=[];for(let i=0;id[0]>=f&&d[0]<=t); if(raw.length<2){ Plotly.purge('orbit'); orbEl.innerHTML='

Pick a wider year range.

'; return; } const s=sm(raw,w),n=s.length,X=s.map(d=>Math.round(d[1]*100)/100),Y=s.map(d=>Math.round(d[2]*10)/10),yr=s.map(d=>d[0]); let xa=Math.min(1,...X),xb=Math.max(1,...X),ya=Math.min(0,...Y),yb=Math.max(0,...Y); const px=(xb-xa)*.12+.04,py=(yb-ya)*.12+1.5;xa-=px;xb+=px;ya-=py;yb+=py; const k=Math.max(0,n-3), ann=[]; [['WINDOW','#15b6a0',xa<1&&yb>0,xa,yb,'left','top'],['CONTEND','#2f7ed8',xb>1&&yb>0,xb,yb,'right','top'], ['FORCED-SPEND','#ec5a3c',xb>1&&ya<0,xb,ya,'right','bottom'],['REBUILD','#f0a91c',xa<1&&ya<0,xa,ya,'left','bottom']].forEach(q=>{ if(q[2]) ann.push({x:q[3],y:q[4],xref:'x',yref:'y',text:q[0],showarrow:false,xanchor:q[5],yanchor:q[6],font:{size:10,color:q[1]},opacity:.85});}); ann.push({x:X[n-1],y:Y[n-1],ax:X[n-1]-0.5*(X[n-1]-X[k]),ay:Y[n-1]-0.5*(Y[n-1]-Y[k]),xref:'x',yref:'y',axref:'x',ayref:'y',showarrow:true,arrowhead:2,arrowsize:1.3,arrowwidth:1.7,arrowcolor:dirc,text:''}); Plotly.newPlot('orbit',[{x:X,y:Y,mode:'lines+markers',line:{color:col,width:2.6,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.7}, marker:{color:col,size:s.map((d,i)=>5+7*(i/Math.max(1,n-1))),line:{color:dark?'#1b1e23':'#fff',width:0.6}}, text:yr,hovertemplate:'%{text}
payroll %{x:.2f}× lg · TAB %{y:+.1f}
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slot %{x} · %{customdata[1]:.1f} WAR
%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'HOU',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});