RRosternomics
𝕏

Astros HOU

‹ ›

GM: Jeff Luhnow

Overview

CONTEND ↗ rising
expensive & winning · year 2 in this regime · payroll 1.34× league · TAB +23.7
+23.7TAB — talent above budget1st/30
+17.4WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)4th/30
11.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars2nd/30
-1.9dead WAR — sub-replacement drag1st/30
19%dead money %3rd/30
0.636win %2nd/30
61.4roster fWAR1st/30
+34surplus $M (value vs cost)5th/30
$175Mpayroll $M5th/30

2018: made playoffs · 103–59. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFJake Marisnick 96GGeorge Springer 80GTony Kemp 32G
LFMarwin Gonzalez 73GTony Kemp 61GJosh Reddick 43G
RFJosh Reddick 111GGeorge Springer 77GMyles Straw 5G
SSCarlos Correa 109GMarwin Gonzalez 39GAlex Bregman 28G
2BJose Altuve 130GMarwin Gonzalez 32GYuli Gurriel 15G
3BAlex Bregman 136GJ.D. Davis 23GYuli Gurriel 21G
1BYuli Gurriel 109GTyler White 42GMarwin Gonzalez 24G
STARTERSJustin Verlander 6.6WARGerrit Cole 5.8WARDallas Keuchel 3.2WARCharlie Morton 2.8WARLance McCullers Jr. 2.4WAR
CMartín Maldonado 117GMax Stassi 82GBrian McCann 62G
DHEvan Gattis 110GTyler White 20GGeorge Springer 9G
BULLPEN★ Roberto Osuna 21svRyan Pressly 21hWill Harris 15hCollin McHugh 12hJoe Smith 11hBrad Peacock 10hTony Sipp 10hHéctor Rondón 9h
CMartín Maldonado 117 · Max Stassi 82 · Brian McCann 62
1BYuli Gurriel 109 · Tyler White 42 · Marwin Gonzalez 24
2BJose Altuve 130 · Marwin Gonzalez 32 · Yuli Gurriel 15
3BAlex Bregman 136 · J.D. Davis 23 · Yuli Gurriel 21
SSCarlos Correa 109 · Marwin Gonzalez 39 · Alex Bregman 28
LFMarwin Gonzalez 73 · Tony Kemp 61 · Josh Reddick 43
CFJake Marisnick 96 · George Springer 80 · Tony Kemp 32
RFJosh Reddick 111 · George Springer 77 · Myles Straw 5
DHEvan Gattis 110 · Tyler White 20 · George Springer 9
SPJustin Verlander 6.6 · Gerrit Cole 5.8 · Dallas Keuchel 3.2 · Charlie Morton 2.8 · Lance McCullers Jr. 2.4
BP★ Roberto Osuna 21 · Ryan Pressly 21 · Will Harris 15 · Collin McHugh 12 · Joe Smith 11 · Brad Peacock 10 · Tony Sipp 10 · Héctor Rondón 9

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2018 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Alex Bregman 24 pre-arb 1577.9 0.6 +26.3
Justin Verlander 35 FA-elig 346.6 28.0 -5.5
Gerrit Cole 27 arb 325.8 6.8 +13.1
Jose Altuve 28 FA-elig 1375.8 9.0 +10.8
Carlos Correa 23 arb 1103.7 1.0 +11.7
George Springer 28 arb 1403.2 12.0 -1.2
Dallas Keuchel 30 FA-elig 343.2 13.2 -2.4
Max Stassi 27 arb 882.9 0.6 +9.3
Charlie Morton 34 FA-elig 302.8 7.0 +2.7
Lance McCullers Jr. 24 arb 252.4 2.5 +5.8
Josh Reddick 31 FA-elig 1342.3 13.0 -5.0
Yuli Gurriel 34 pre-arb 1361.9 12.4 -6.0
Marwin Gonzalez 29 FA-elig 1451.8 5.1 +1.1
Tyler White 27 pre-arb 661.6 0.3 +5.0
Collin McHugh 31 FA-elig 581.3 5.0 -0.4
Héctor Rondón 30 arb 631.3 4.0 +0.3
Jake Marisnick 27 arb 1031.2 1.9 +2.2
Will Harris 33 FA-elig 611.1 2.8 +1.0
Ryan Pressly↔ MIN 29 arb 261.0 0.5 +2.9
Tony Sipp 34 FA-elig 540.8 6.0 -3.1
Tony Kemp 26 pre-arb 970.8 0.4 +2.4
Ken Giles↔ TOR 27 arb 340.7 2.8 -0.4
Martín Maldonado↔ ANA 31 FA-elig 410.7 1.3 +0.9
Roberto Osuna↔ TOR 23 arb 230.6 3.2 -1.2
Brad Peacock 30 FA-elig 610.5 2.4 -0.6
Josh James 25 – 60.4 0.1 +1.2
Brian McCann 34 FA-elig 630.3 17.0 -15.8
Myles Straw 23 – 90.2 0.0 +0.7
Joe Smith 34 FA-elig 560.2 7.0 -6.4
Evan Gattis 31 arb 1280.1 6.7 -6.5
Framber Valdez 24 – 80.0 0.1 +0.0
Reymin Guduan 26 pre-arb 3-0.0 0.0 -0.0
James Hoyt 31 – 1-0.0 0.0 -0.1
AJ Reed 25 pre-arb 1-0.1 0.0 -0.2
Dean Deetz 24 pre-arb 4-0.1 0.3 -0.6
Chris Devenski 27 pre-arb 50-0.1 0.6 -0.9
Cionel Pérez 22 – 8-0.2 0.2 -0.7
Tim Federowicz↔ CIN 30 arb 10-0.2 0.1 -0.7
Derek Fisher 24 pre-arb 42-0.3 0.6 -1.4
Kyle Tucker 21 – 28-0.4 0.1 -1.7
J.D. Davis 25 pre-arb 42-0.6 0.6 -2.6

Key additions (new vs 2017)

PlayerfWAR
Gerrit Cole5.8
Héctor Rondón1.3
Ryan Pressly1.0
Martín Maldonado0.7
Roberto Osuna0.6
Josh James0.4

Key subtractions (gone from 2017)

Player2017 fWAR
Joe Musgrove0.9
Norichika Aoki0.5
Michael Feliz0.4
Francis Martes0.2
Colin Moran0.2
David Paulino0.1

Current & Historical Payroll

2018 payroll
$175.4M
2019 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2018, 2018–2024. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2018; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (7)

PlayerAgeSvc2018201920202021202220232024
Justin Verlander3512.002$28.0MFREE AGENT
Brian McCann3412.117$17.0MFREE AGENT
Josh Reddick317.050$13.0MFREE AGENT
Jose Altuve286.072$9.0MFREE AGENT
Joe Smith3410.091$7.0MFREE AGENT
Charlie Morton349.009$7.0MFREE AGENT
Tony Sipp348.100$6.0MFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (15)

PlayerAgeSvc2018201920202021202220232024
Dallas Keuchel305.089$13.2MFREE AGENT
George Springer283.166$12.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gerrit Cole274.111$6.8MARB 3FREE AGENT
Evan Gattis315.000$6.7MFREE AGENT
Marwin Gonzalez295.133$5.1MFREE AGENT
Collin McHugh314.084$5.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Héctor Rondón305.000$4.0MFREE AGENT
Roberto Osuna233.000$3.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ken Giles273.113$2.8MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Will Harris334.102$2.8MARB 3FREE AGENT
Brad Peacock303.165$2.4MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jake Marisnick273.145$1.9MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Martín Maldonado315.156$1.3MFREE AGENT
Ryan Pressly294.039$540kARB 3FREE AGENT
Tim Federowicz303.022$117kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (19)

PlayerAgeSvc2018201920202021202220232024
Yuli Gurriel342.000$12.4MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Lance McCullers Jr.242.140$2.5MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carlos Correa232.119$1.0MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Devenski272.000$599kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alex Bregman241.070$599kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Max Stassi271.049$557kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Derek Fisher240.075$554kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
J.D. Davis250.058$550kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tony Kemp260.132$404kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dean Deetz240.027$340kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler White271.006$278kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cionel Pérez220.000$196kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Tucker210.000$146kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Framber Valdez240.000$120kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh James250.000$88kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Myles Straw230.000$47kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Reymin Guduan260.068$44kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
James Hoyt311.034$24kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
AJ Reed250.110$18kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Astros 2018; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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Not enough history to chart.

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Pick a wider year range.

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payroll %{x:.2f}× lg · TAB %{y:+.1f}
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slot %{x} · %{customdata[1]:.1f} WAR
%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'HOU',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});