RRosternomics
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Royals KCR

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GM: Dayton Moore

Overview

WINDOW ↗ rising
cheap & winning · year 2 in this regime · payroll 0.8× league · TAB +4.2
+4.2TAB — talent above budget11th/30
+9.8WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)5th/30
10.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars2nd/30
-5.7dead WAR — sub-replacement drag16th/30
37%dead money %18th/30
0.549win %7th/30
35.8roster fWAR9th/30
+13surplus $M (value vs cost)8th/30
$91Mpayroll $M19th/30

2014: won pennant · 89–73. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFJarrod Dyson 106GLorenzo Cain 93GJustin Maxwell 6G
LFAlex Gordon 156GRaul Ibanez 22GNorichika Aoki 5G
RFNorichika Aoki 119GLorenzo Cain 77GJustin Maxwell 7G
SSAlcides Escobar 162GJayson Nix 6GChristian Colón 2G
2BOmar Infante 134GPedro Ciriaco 13GJohnny Giavotella 12G
3BMike Moustakas 138GJayson Nix 19GChristian Colón 5G
1BEric Hosmer 130GBilly Butler 37GRaul Ibanez 8G
STARTERSJames Shields 3.5WARYordano Ventura 2.6WARJason Vargas 2.3WARDanny Duffy 2.0WARJeremy Guthrie 1.2WAR
CSalvador Perez 146GErik Kratz 36GBrett Hayes 27G
DHBilly Butler 108GRaul Ibanez 40GJosh Willingham 33G
BULLPEN★ Greg Holland 46svWade Davis 33hKelvin Herrera 20hAaron Crow 11hJason Frasor 10hScott Downs 7hFrancisley Bueno 5hLouis Coleman 1h
CSalvador Perez 146 · Erik Kratz 36 · Brett Hayes 27
1BEric Hosmer 130 · Billy Butler 37 · Raul Ibanez 8
2BOmar Infante 134 · Pedro Ciriaco 13 · Johnny Giavotella 12
3BMike Moustakas 138 · Jayson Nix 19 · Christian Colón 5
SSAlcides Escobar 162 · Jayson Nix 6 · Christian Colón 2
LFAlex Gordon 156 · Raul Ibanez 22 · Norichika Aoki 5
CFJarrod Dyson 106 · Lorenzo Cain 93 · Justin Maxwell 6
RFNorichika Aoki 119 · Lorenzo Cain 77 · Justin Maxwell 7
DHBilly Butler 108 · Raul Ibanez 40 · Josh Willingham 33
SPJames Shields 3.5 · Yordano Ventura 2.6 · Jason Vargas 2.3 · Danny Duffy 2.0 · Jeremy Guthrie 1.2
BP★ Greg Holland 46 · Wade Davis 33 · Kelvin Herrera 20 · Aaron Crow 11 · Jason Frasor 10 · Scott Downs 7 · Francisley Bueno 5 · Louis Coleman 1

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2014 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Alex Gordon 30 FA-elig 1565.4 10.0 +5.9
Lorenzo Cain 28 arb 1334.4 0.5 +12.4
Alcides Escobar 27 FA-elig 1623.5 3.0 +7.4
James Shields 32 FA-elig 343.5 13.5 -3.2
Wade Davis 28 arb 713.1 4.8 +4.4
Yordano Ventura 23 pre-arb 312.6 0.5 +7.1
Jarrod Dyson 29 arb 1202.4 0.5 +6.5
Jason Vargas 31 FA-elig 302.3 7.0 -0.3
Greg Holland 28 arb 652.3 4.7 +1.9
Danny Duffy 25 pre-arb 312.0 0.5 +5.4
Norichika Aoki 32 pre-arb 1321.8 1.9 +3.5
Salvador Perez 24 arb 1501.8 1.5 +3.7
Kelvin Herrera 24 arb 701.3 0.5 +3.3
Jeremy Guthrie 35 FA-elig 331.2 8.0 -4.5
Christian Colón 25 – 210.6 0.2 +1.5
Liam Hendriks↔ TOR 25 pre-arb 60.6 0.1 +1.6
Omar Infante 32 FA-elig 1350.5 5.0 -3.6
Danny Valencia↔ TOR 29 arb 360.5 0.4 +0.9
Mike Moustakas 25 arb 1400.4 0.5 +0.6
Brandon Finnegan 21 – 70.3 – –
Erik Kratz↔ TOR 34 arb 130.2 0.1 +0.5
Jason Frasor↔ TEX 36 FA-elig 230.2 0.7 -0.1
Terrance Gore 23 – 110.1 – –
Francisco Peña 24 – 10.1 – –
Josh Willingham↔ MIN 35 FA-elig 240.1 1.8 -1.5
Bruce Chen 37 FA-elig 130.1 3.0 -2.8
Johnny Giavotella 26 arb 120.1 0.5 -0.3
Carlos Peguero 27 pre-arb 40.1 0.1 +0.1
Michael Mariot 25 – 170.1 0.3 -0.1
Francisley Bueno 33 FA-elig 300.0 0.5 -0.5
Wilking Rodríguez 24 – 20.0 – –
Casey Coleman 26 pre-arb 10-0.0 0.1 -0.1
Justin Marks 26 – 1-0.0 – –
Jimmy Paredes↔ BAL 25 – 9-0.1 0.2 -0.3
Donnie Joseph 26 – 1-0.1 0.5 -0.7
Pedro Ciriaco 28 arb 25-0.1 0.5 -0.7
Lane Adams 24 – 6-0.1 0.1 -0.4
Scott Downs↔ CHW 38 FA-elig 17-0.1 1.2 -1.6
Eric Hosmer 24 arb 131-0.2 3.6 -4.1
Jayson Nix↔ PHI 31 FA-elig 7-0.2 0.2 -0.7
Aaron Brooks 24 – 2-0.2 – –
Tim Collins 24 arb 22-0.2 1.4 -2.0
Raul Ibanez↔ ANA 42 FA-elig 33-0.5 1.0 -2.4
Billy Butler 28 FA-elig 151-0.5 8.0 -9.5
Louis Coleman 28 arb 31-0.6 0.5 -2.2
Justin Maxwell 30 FA-elig 20-0.8 1.3 -3.6
Aaron Crow 27 arb 67-1.0 1.5 -4.5
Brett Hayes 30 arb 27-1.1 0.6 -4.0

Key additions (new vs 2013)

PlayerfWAR
Jason Vargas2.3
Norichika Aoki1.8
Christian Colón0.6
Liam Hendriks0.6
Omar Infante0.5
Danny Valencia0.5

Key subtractions (gone from 2013)

Player2013 fWAR
Ervin Santana2.6
David Lough1.8
Will Smith0.4
Miguel Tejada0.3
Luis Mendoza0.3
George Kottaras0.1

Current & Historical Payroll

2014 payroll
$90.9M

What the front office was committed to as of 2014, 2014–2020. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (11)

PlayerAgeSvc2014201520162017201820192020
James Shields327.125$13.5MFREE AGENT
Alex Gordon306.092$10.0M$12.5M$12.0M$16.0M$20.0M$20.0M$4.0M
Billy Butler286.120$8.0MFREE AGENT
Jeremy Guthrie357.130$8.0M$9.0MFREE AGENT
Jason Vargas316.114$7.0M$8.5M$8.5M$8.0MFREE AGENT
Omar Infante3216.020$5.0M$7.5M$7.8MFREE AGENT
Bruce Chen3716.000$3.0MFREE AGENT
Josh Willingham358.123$1.8MFREE AGENT
Scott Downs3811.121$1.2MFREE AGENT
Raul Ibanez4216.020$1.0MFREE AGENT
Jason Frasor369.134$660k$1.0MFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (9)

PlayerAgeSvc2014201520162017201820192020
Wade Davis284.032$4.8MARB 3FREE AGENT
Greg Holland283.028$4.7MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alcides Escobar274.082$3.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Aaron Crow273.000$1.5MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tim Collins243.000$1.4MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin Maxwell303.066$1.3MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brett Hayes303.017$630kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pedro Ciriaco284.000$514kARB 3FREE AGENT
Jayson Nix314.127$162kARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (28)

PlayerAgeSvc2014201520162017201820192020
Eric Hosmer242.146$3.6MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Norichika Aoki322.000$1.9MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Salvador Perez242.050$1.5MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Moustakas252.111$549kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Lorenzo Cain282.074$546kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Louis Coleman282.053$537kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jarrod Dyson292.088$530kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kelvin Herrera241.157$522kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Johnny Giavotella262.055$509kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Francisley Bueno331.111$504kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Donnie Joseph260.032$501kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yordano Ventura230.013$500kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Danny Duffy252.085$486kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Danny Valencia292.118$446kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Mariot250.000$276kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Christian Colón250.000$197kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jimmy Paredes252.059$167kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Erik Kratz341.158$141kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Casey Coleman261.044$115kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carlos Peguero271.008$77kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Lane Adams240.000$77kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Liam Hendriks251.000$51kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin Marks260.031—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Francisco Peña240.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Wilking Rodríguez240.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Aaron Brooks240.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Finnegan210.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Terrance Gore230.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Royals 2014; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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Not enough history to chart.

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Pick a wider year range.

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slot %{x} · %{customdata[1]:.1f} WAR
%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'KCR',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});