RRosternomics
𝕏

Royals KCR

‹ ›

GM: J.J. Picollo

Overview

WINDOW ↗ rising
cheap & winning · year 1 in this regime · payroll 0.68× league · TAB +11.3
+11.3TAB — talent above budget3rd/30
+8.8WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)7th/30
6.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars19th/30
-3.9dead WAR — sub-replacement drag10th/30
37%dead money %17th/30
0.531win %12th/30
41.0roster fWAR8th/30
+61surplus $M (value vs cost)2nd/30
$110Mpayroll $M22nd/30

2024: made playoffs · 86–76. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFKyle Isbel 136GGarrett Hampson 52GDairon Blanco 15G
LFMJ Melendez 120GTommy Pham 37GDairon Blanco 36G
RFHunter Renfroe 116GTommy Pham 54GAdam Frazier 26G
SSBobby Witt Jr. 160GPaul DeJong 90GGarrett Hampson 8G
2BMichael Massey 82GAdam Frazier 43GMaikel Garcia 37G
3BMaikel Garcia 124GPaul DeJong 41GNick Loftin 17G
1BVinnie Pasquantino 103GSalvador Perez 49GYuli Gurriel 12G
STARTERSCole Ragans 4.9WARSeth Lugo 4.7WARMichael Wacha 3.3WARBrady Singer 2.5WARAlec Marsh 1.4WAR
CSalvador Perez 91GFreddy Fermin 91G
DHNelson Velázquez 40GRobbie Grossman 35GVinnie Pasquantino 25G
BULLPEN★ James McArthur 18svHunter Harvey 28hJohn Schreiber 23hLucas Erceg 18hAngel Zerpa 12hWill Smith 8hSam Long 7hChris Stratton 5h
CSalvador Perez 91 · Freddy Fermin 91
1BVinnie Pasquantino 103 · Salvador Perez 49 · Yuli Gurriel 12
2BMichael Massey 82 · Adam Frazier 43 · Maikel Garcia 37
3BMaikel Garcia 124 · Paul DeJong 41 · Nick Loftin 17
SSBobby Witt Jr. 160 · Paul DeJong 90 · Garrett Hampson 8
LFMJ Melendez 120 · Tommy Pham 37 · Dairon Blanco 36
CFKyle Isbel 136 · Garrett Hampson 52 · Dairon Blanco 15
RFHunter Renfroe 116 · Tommy Pham 54 · Adam Frazier 26
DHNelson Velázquez 40 · Robbie Grossman 35 · Vinnie Pasquantino 25
SPCole Ragans 4.9 · Seth Lugo 4.7 · Michael Wacha 3.3 · Brady Singer 2.5 · Alec Marsh 1.4
BP★ James McArthur 18 · Hunter Harvey 28 · John Schreiber 23 · Lucas Erceg 18 · Angel Zerpa 12 · Will Smith 8 · Sam Long 7 · Chris Stratton 5

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2024 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Bobby Witt Jr. 24 pre-arb 16110.5 3.1 +40.6
Cole Ragans 26 pre-arb 324.9 0.8 +19.5
Seth Lugo 34 FA-elig 334.7 15.0 +4.5
Michael Wacha 32 FA-elig 293.3 16.0 -2.2
Salvador Perez 34 FA-elig 1583.2 20.0 -6.6
Brady Singer 27 arb 322.5 4.8 +5.4
Freddy Fermin 29 pre-arb 1111.9 0.7 +7.3
Michael Massey 26 pre-arb 1001.6 0.8 +5.7
Vinnie Pasquantino 26 pre-arb 1311.5 0.8 +5.5
Kyle Isbel 27 arb 1361.5 0.8 +5.5
Lucas Erceg↔ OAK 29 pre-arb 231.4 0.3 +5.5
Alec Marsh 26 pre-arb 261.4 0.7 +4.9
Maikel Garcia 24 pre-arb 1571.3 0.8 +4.5
John Schreiber 30 arb 591.1 1.2 +3.4
Kris Bubic 26 arb 270.9 2.4 +1.5
Paul DeJong↔ CHW 30 FA-elig 370.7 0.5 +2.5
Dairon Blanco 31 pre-arb 880.5 0.7 +1.3
Garrett Hampson 29 FA-elig 1130.5 2.0 +0.1
Michael Lorenzen↔ TEX 32 FA-elig 70.5 1.2 +0.7
Carlos Hernández 27 arb 270.2 1.0 -0.1
Angel Zerpa 24 arb 600.2 0.7 +0.1
Sam Long 28 arb 430.2 0.7 -0.0
Will Klein↔ OAK 24 pre-arb 50.1 0.5 -0.0
Hunter Renfroe 32 FA-elig 1200.1 5.5 -5.1
Steven Cruz 25 pre-arb 50.1 0.7 -0.3
James McArthur 27 pre-arb 570.1 0.7 -0.4
Jordan Lyles 33 FA-elig 50.0 8.5 -8.3
Tyler Duffey 33 – 90.0 0.2 -0.1
Nick Pratto 25 pre-arb 10.0 0.7 -0.6
Daniel Lynch IV 27 arb 160.0 0.7 -0.6
Walter Pennington↔ TEX 26 – 10.0 0.0 +0.1
Anthony Veneziano↔ MIA 26 pre-arb 20.0 0.1 -0.0
Drew Waters 25 pre-arb 7-0.0 0.7 -0.8
Colin Selby↔ BAL 26 pre-arb 2-0.0 0.3 -0.4
Tommy Pham↔ CHW 36 FA-elig 23-0.0 0.4 -0.6
Yuli Gurriel 40 – 18-0.0 – –
Dan Altavilla 31 arb 5-0.1 0.4 -0.8
Tyler Gentry 25 – 3-0.1 0.0 -0.5
Matt Sauer 25 – 14-0.2 0.2 -1.0
Nick Loftin 25 pre-arb 57-0.2 0.7 -1.5
Hunter Harvey↔ WSN 29 arb 6-0.2 0.3 -1.1
Chris Stratton 33 FA-elig 57-0.2 3.5 -4.3
Nick Anderson 33 arb 37-0.2 1.6 -2.5
MJ Melendez 25 pre-arb 135-0.2 0.8 -1.8
Jonathan Bowlan 27 pre-arb 1-0.3 0.7 -2.0
CJ Alexander 27 – 4-0.3 0.0 -1.3
Robbie Grossman↔ CHW 34 FA-elig 16-0.3 0.2 -1.5
Will Smith 34 FA-elig 45-0.4 5.0 -6.6
Nelson Velázquez 25 pre-arb 64-0.5 0.7 -2.7
Adam Frazier 32 FA-elig 104-0.5 2.0 -4.2

Key additions (new vs 2023)

PlayerfWAR
Seth Lugo4.7
Michael Wacha3.3
Lucas Erceg1.4
John Schreiber1.1
Paul DeJong0.7
Garrett Hampson0.5

Key subtractions (gone from 2023)

Player2023 fWAR
Aroldis Chapman1.3
Zack Greinke1.1
Nicky Lopez0.7
Ryan Yarbrough0.7
Edward Olivares0.5
Scott Barlow0.5

Current & Historical Payroll

2024 payroll
$110.4M
2025 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2024, 2024–2030. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2024; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (14)

PlayerAgeSvc2024202520262027202820292030
Salvador Perez3412.050$20.0MFREE AGENT
Michael Wacha3210.062$16.0MFREE AGENT
Seth Lugo347.082$15.0MFREE AGENT
Jordan Lyles3313.000$8.5MFREE AGENT
Hunter Renfroe326.165$5.5MFREE AGENT
Will Smith3412.000$5.0MFREE AGENT
Chris Stratton336.100$3.5MFREE AGENT
Adam Frazier328.000$2.0MFREE AGENT
Michael Lorenzen328.159$1.2MFREE AGENT
Paul DeJong306.057$466kFREE AGENT
Tommy Pham368.107$426kFREE AGENT
Tyler Duffey337.026$204kFREE AGENT
Robbie Grossman349.060$172kFREE AGENT
Yuli Gurriel408.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (7)

PlayerAgeSvc2024202520262027202820292030
Brady Singer273.156$4.8MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kris Bubic263.135$2.4MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Garrett Hampson295.030$2.0MFREE AGENT
Nick Anderson335.000$1.6MFREE AGENT
John Schreiber303.027$1.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dan Altavilla314.063$398kARB 3FREE AGENT
Hunter Harvey294.047$288kARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (29)

PlayerAgeSvc2024202520262027202820292030
Bobby Witt Jr.242.000$3.1MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carlos Hernández272.145$1.0MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Isbel272.043$758kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Massey261.068$757kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
MJ Melendez251.153$755kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cole Ragans261.029$754kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Vinnie Pasquantino261.101$753kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Maikel Garcia240.168$751kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Angel Zerpa241.082$748kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nelson Velázquez251.031$747kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
James McArthur270.150$746kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alec Marsh260.094$745kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Freddy Fermin290.165$744kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dairon Blanco310.132$744kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Loftin250.031$742kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Daniel Lynch IV272.083$740kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Pratto251.067$740kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jonathan Bowlan270.013$740kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Steven Cruz250.034$740kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Drew Waters251.045$740kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sam Long281.160$740kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Will Klein240.000$462kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Colin Selby261.000$296kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Lucas Erceg290.136$283kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Sauer25–$235k
Anthony Veneziano260.013$123kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
CJ Alexander270.000$44kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Gentry250.000$24kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Walter Pennington26–$12k

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Royals 2024; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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Not enough history to chart.

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Pick a wider year range.

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payroll %{x:.2f}× lg · TAB %{y:+.1f}
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slot %{x} · %{customdata[1]:.1f} WAR
%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'KCR',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});