RRosternomics
𝕏

Dodgers LAD

‹ ›

GM: Fred Claire

Overview

FORCED-SPEND → steady
expensive & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.1× league · TAB -2.3
-2.3TAB — talent above budget18th/28
+6.9WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)5th/28
7.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars13th/28
-5.1dead WAR — sub-replacement drag15th/28
30%dead money %20th/28
0.556win %5th/28
33.1roster fWAR14th/28
-8surplus $M (value vs cost)18th/28
$36Mpayroll $M12th/28

1996: made playoffs · 90–72. Ranks are vs the 28 teams that season.

Roster

CFChad Curtis 120GWayne Kirby 53GRoger Cedeno 50G
LFTodd Hollandsworth 122GBilly Ashley 38GDave Clark 35G
RFRaúl Mondesi 157GTodd Hollandsworth 9GRoger Cedeno 4G
SSGreg Gagne 127GJuan Castro 30GChad Fonville 20G
2BDelino DeShields 154GChad Fonville 23GJuan Castro 9G
3BTim Wallach 91GMike Blowers 90GMike Busch 23G
1BEric Karros 154GDave Hansen 8GMike Blowers 6G
STARTERSHideo Nomo 4.3WARIsmael Valdez 4.3WARPedro Astacio 2.2WARRamon Martinez 1.8WARChan Ho Park 0.9WAR
CMike Piazza 146GTom Prince 35GCarlos Hernandez 9G
BULLPEN★ Todd Worrell 44svAntonio Osuna 0hMark Guthrie 0hScott Radinsky 0hDarren Dreifort 0hJim Bruske 0hDarren Hall 0h
CMike Piazza 146 · Tom Prince 35 · Carlos Hernandez 9
1BEric Karros 154 · Dave Hansen 8 · Mike Blowers 6
2BDelino DeShields 154 · Chad Fonville 23 · Juan Castro 9
3BTim Wallach 91 · Mike Blowers 90 · Mike Busch 23
SSGreg Gagne 127 · Juan Castro 30 · Chad Fonville 20
LFTodd Hollandsworth 122 · Billy Ashley 38 · Dave Clark 35
CFChad Curtis 120 · Wayne Kirby 53 · Roger Cedeno 50
RFRaúl Mondesi 157 · Todd Hollandsworth 9 · Roger Cedeno 4
SPHideo Nomo 4.3 · Ismael Valdez 4.3 · Pedro Astacio 2.2 · Ramon Martinez 1.8 · Chan Ho Park 0.9
BP★ Todd Worrell 44 · Antonio Osuna 0 · Mark Guthrie 0 · Scott Radinsky 0 · Darren Dreifort 0 · Jim Bruske 0 · Darren Hall 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

1996 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Mike Piazza 27 arb 1486.6 2.7 +2.8
Hideo Nomo 27 pre-arb 334.3 0.6 +3.0
Ismael Valdez 22 pre-arb 334.3 0.4 +3.2
Raul Mondesi 25 arb 1574.2 0.9 +2.6
Eric Karros 28 arb 1542.6 3.1 -1.0
Greg Gagne 34 FA-elig 1282.3 2.6 -0.7
Pedro Astacio 27 arb 352.2 1.1 +0.7
Ramon Martinez 28 FA-elig 301.8 4.8 -3.3
Todd Worrell 36 FA-elig 721.5 4.0 -2.7
Antonio Osuna 23 pre-arb 731.2 0.1 +0.9
Todd Hollandsworth 23 pre-arb 1491.2 0.1 +0.9
Mark Guthrie 30 FA-elig 661.1 0.9 +0.0
Scott Radinsky 28 FA-elig 581.1 0.6 +0.3
Chan Ho Park 23 pre-arb 480.9 0.1 +0.6
Tom Candiotti 39 FA-elig 280.8 3.0 -2.3
Roger Cedeno 21 pre-arb 860.6 0.1 +0.4
Billy Ashley 25 arb 710.5 0.2 +0.2
Tom Prince 31 FA-elig 400.4 0.3 -0.0
Chad Curtis↔ DET 27 arb 430.3 0.6 -0.4
Darren Dreifort 24 pre-arb 200.2 0.1 +0.0
Oreste Marrero 26 – 100.1 – –
Mike Blowers 31 FA-elig 920.1 2.3 -2.2
Carlos Hernandez 29 FA-elig 130.1 0.4 -0.3
Rick Parker 33 – 160.1 – –
Jim Bruske 31 – 110.0 – –
Karim Garcia 20 – 1-0.0 – –
Dave Clark↔ PIT 33 FA-elig 15-0.0 0.1 -0.1
John Cummings↔ DET 27 arb 4-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Darren Hall 31 pre-arb 9-0.0 0.2 -0.2
Wilton Guerrero 21 – 5-0.0 – –
Wayne Kirby↔ CLE 32 arb 65-0.1 0.3 -0.4
Joey Eischen↔ DET 26 pre-arb 28-0.1 0.1 -0.1
Tim Wallach↔ ANA 38 FA-elig 45-0.2 0.2 -0.3
Mike Busch 27 – 38-0.2 – –
Brett Butler 39 FA-elig 34-0.3 2.0 -2.3
Chad Fonville 25 pre-arb 103-0.4 0.2 -0.5
Milt Thompson↔ COL 37 FA-elig 48-0.6 0.2 -0.7
Dave Hansen 27 FA-elig 80-0.6 0.4 -0.9
Juan Castro 24 pre-arb 70-0.7 0.1 -0.7
Delino DeShields 27 FA-elig 154-1.7 3.0 -4.5

Key additions (new vs 1995)

PlayerfWAR
Greg Gagne2.3
Scott Radinsky1.1
Chad Curtis0.3
Darren Dreifort0.2
Oreste Marrero0.1
Mike Blowers0.1

Key subtractions (gone from 1995)

Player1995 fWAR
Jose Offerman1.8
Kevin Tapani0.6
Willie Banks0.4
Henry Rodriguez0.2
Noe Munoz-0.0
Chris Gwynn-0.1

Current & Historical Payroll

1996 payroll
$36.0M

What the front office was committed to as of 1996, 1996–2002. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (16)

PlayerAgeSvc1996199719981999200020012002
Ramon Martinez288.000$4.8M$4.8M$4.8MFREE AGENT
Todd Worrell3611.000$4.0M$3.8MFREE AGENT
Tom Candiotti3913.000$3.0M$3.0MFREE AGENT
Delino DeShields276.000$3.0MFREE AGENT
Greg Gagne3413.000$2.6M$3.0MFREE AGENT
Mike Blowers317.000$2.3MFREE AGENT
Brett Butler3915.000$2.0M$1.7MFREE AGENT
Mark Guthrie307.000$870k$1.6M$1.6MFREE AGENT
Scott Radinsky286.000$600k$900k$900kFREE AGENT
Dave Hansen276.000$400kFREE AGENT$450k$475k$625k$675k
Carlos Hernandez296.000$375kFREE AGENT
Tom Prince319.000$325k$350k$350kFREE AGENT
Milt Thompson3712.000$232kFREE AGENT
Tim Wallach3816.000$176kFREE AGENT
Dave Clark3310.000$112kFREE AGENT
Rick Parker336.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (8)

PlayerAgeSvc1996199719981999200020012002
Eric Karros285.000$3.1MFREE AGENT
Mike Piazza274.000$2.7MARB 3FREE AGENT
Pedro Astacio274.000$1.1MARB 3FREE AGENT
Raul Mondesi253.000$950kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chad Curtis274.000$585kARB 3FREE AGENT
Wayne Kirby325.000$309kFREE AGENT
Billy Ashley254.000$195kARB 3FREE AGENT
John Cummings273.000$27kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (16)

PlayerAgeSvc1996199719981999200020012002
Hideo Nomo271.000$600kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ismael Valdez222.000$425kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chad Fonville251.000$175kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Darren Hall312.000$175kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Antonio Osuna231.000$150kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Todd Hollandsworth231.000$136kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Darren Dreifort242.000$134kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Juan Castro241.000$124kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Roger Cedeno211.000$124kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chan Ho Park232.000$124kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joey Eischen262.000$73kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jim Bruske311.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Busch271.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Karim Garcia201.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Wilton Guerrero210.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Oreste Marrero26–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Dodgers 1996; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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Not enough history to chart.

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Pick a wider year range.

'; return; } const s=sm(raw,w),n=s.length,X=s.map(d=>Math.round(d[1]*100)/100),Y=s.map(d=>Math.round(d[2]*10)/10),yr=s.map(d=>d[0]); let xa=Math.min(1,...X),xb=Math.max(1,...X),ya=Math.min(0,...Y),yb=Math.max(0,...Y); const px=(xb-xa)*.12+.04,py=(yb-ya)*.12+1.5;xa-=px;xb+=px;ya-=py;yb+=py; const k=Math.max(0,n-3), ann=[]; [['WINDOW','#15b6a0',xa<1&&yb>0,xa,yb,'left','top'],['CONTEND','#2f7ed8',xb>1&&yb>0,xb,yb,'right','top'], ['FORCED-SPEND','#ec5a3c',xb>1&&ya<0,xb,ya,'right','bottom'],['REBUILD','#f0a91c',xa<1&&ya<0,xa,ya,'left','bottom']].forEach(q=>{ if(q[2]) ann.push({x:q[3],y:q[4],xref:'x',yref:'y',text:q[0],showarrow:false,xanchor:q[5],yanchor:q[6],font:{size:10,color:q[1]},opacity:.85});}); ann.push({x:X[n-1],y:Y[n-1],ax:X[n-1]-0.5*(X[n-1]-X[k]),ay:Y[n-1]-0.5*(Y[n-1]-Y[k]),xref:'x',yref:'y',axref:'x',ayref:'y',showarrow:true,arrowhead:2,arrowsize:1.3,arrowwidth:1.7,arrowcolor:dirc,text:''}); Plotly.newPlot('orbit',[{x:X,y:Y,mode:'lines+markers',line:{color:col,width:2.6,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.7}, marker:{color:col,size:s.map((d,i)=>5+7*(i/Math.max(1,n-1))),line:{color:dark?'#1b1e23':'#fff',width:0.6}}, text:yr,hovertemplate:'%{text}
payroll %{x:.2f}× lg · TAB %{y:+.1f}
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slot %{x} · %{customdata[1]:.1f} WAR
%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'LAD',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});