RRosternomics
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Marlins MIA

‹ ›

GM: Michael Hill

Overview

REBUILD ↗ rising
cheap & losing · year 4 in this regime · payroll 0.36× league · TAB -10.0
-10.0TAB — talent above budget
+14.5WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)
0.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars20th/30
-6.9dead WAR — sub-replacement drag29th/30
86%dead money %28th/30
0.517win %13th/30
4.5roster fWAR28th/30
-10surplus $M (value vs cost)12th/30
$43Mpayroll $M29th/30

2020: made playoffs · 31–29. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFStarling Marte 61GMonte Harrison 16GMagneuris Sierra 11G
LFCorey Dickerson 46GLewis Brinson 21GMatt Joyce 15G
RFLewis Brinson 31GMatt Joyce 27GMonte Harrison 13G
SSMiguel Rojas 39GJazz Chisholm Jr. 9GJon Berti 2G
2BJon Berti 21GJazz Chisholm Jr. 13GEddy Alvarez 9G
3BBrian Anderson 56GJon Berti 5GEddy Alvarez 3G
1BJesús Aguilar 31GGarrett Cooper 15GLewin Díaz 11G
STARTERSPablo López 1.6WARSixto Sánchez 1.0WARSandy Alcantara 0.9WARElieser Hernández 0.5WARTrevor Rogers 0.4WAR
CJorge Alfaro 29GFrancisco Cervelli 16GChad Wallach 15G
DHJesús Aguilar 20GGarrett Cooper 18GMatt Joyce 10G
BULLPEN★ Brandon Kintzler 12svBrad Boxberger 6hRichard Bleier 6hJames Hoyt 5hYimi García 4hStephen Tarpley 2hJosh A. Smith 1hNick Vincent 0h
CJorge Alfaro 29 · Francisco Cervelli 16 · Chad Wallach 15
1BJesús Aguilar 31 · Garrett Cooper 15 · Lewin Díaz 11
2BJon Berti 21 · Jazz Chisholm Jr. 13 · Eddy Alvarez 9
3BBrian Anderson 56 · Jon Berti 5 · Eddy Alvarez 3
SSMiguel Rojas 39 · Jazz Chisholm Jr. 9 · Jon Berti 2
LFCorey Dickerson 46 · Lewis Brinson 21 · Matt Joyce 15
CFStarling Marte 61 · Monte Harrison 16 · Magneuris Sierra 11
RFLewis Brinson 31 · Matt Joyce 27 · Monte Harrison 13
DHJesús Aguilar 20 · Garrett Cooper 18 · Matt Joyce 10
SPPablo López 1.6 · Sixto Sánchez 1.0 · Sandy Alcantara 0.9 · Elieser Hernández 0.5 · Trevor Rogers 0.4
BP★ Brandon Kintzler 12 · Brad Boxberger 6 · Richard Bleier 6 · James Hoyt 5 · Yimi García 4 · Stephen Tarpley 2 · Josh A. Smith 1 · Nick Vincent 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2020 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Pablo López 24 pre-arb 111.6 0.2 +11.8
Brian Anderson 27 pre-arb 591.6 0.2 +11.5
Miguel Rojas 31 FA-elig 401.4 4.8 +5.5
Sixto Sánchez 21 – 71.0 0.1 +7.0
Sandy Alcantara 24 pre-arb 70.9 0.2 +6.2
Yimi García 29 arb 140.6 0.4 +4.1
Jon Berti 30 pre-arb 390.6 0.2 +4.2
Elieser Hernández 25 pre-arb 60.5 0.2 +3.4
Trevor Rogers 22 – 70.4 0.1 +2.9
Starling Marte↔ ARI 31 FA-elig 280.4 5.3 -2.6
Francisco Cervelli 34 FA-elig 160.3 2.0 +0.5
James Hoyt 33 pre-arb 240.3 0.2 +2.1
Garrett Cooper 29 pre-arb 340.3 0.2 +2.0
Richard Bleier↔ BAL 33 arb 190.2 0.8 +0.9
Chad Wallach 28 pre-arb 150.2 0.2 +1.5
Daniel Castano 25 – 70.2 0.1 +1.4
Magneuris Sierra 24 pre-arb 190.2 0.2 +0.9
Jesús Aguilar 30 FA-elig 510.1 2.6 -1.6
Mike Morin 29 arb 30.1 0.2 +0.6
Pat Venditte 35 pre-arb 30.1 0.2 +0.5
Jeff Brigham 28 pre-arb 10.1 0.2 +0.3
Brian Navarreto 25 – 20.1 0.0 +0.5
Corey Dickerson 31 FA-elig 520.1 8.8 -8.4
Ryan Lavarnway 32 arb 50.0 0.1 +0.2
Jesus Tinoco↔ COL 25 – 30.0 0.0 +0.2
Josh A. Smith 32 – 160.0 0.1 +0.1
Brandon Leibrandt 27 – 50.0 0.1 -0.1
Nick Neidert 23 – 4-0.0 0.2 -0.2
Jordan Holloway 24 – 1-0.0 0.2 -0.4
Brad Boxberger 32 FA-elig 23-0.0 0.1 -0.4
Johan Quezada 25 – 3-0.1 0.0 -0.4
José Ureña 28 arb 5-0.1 3.8 -4.2
Josh D. Smith 30 – 2-0.1 0.2 -0.9
Harold Ramírez 25 pre-arb 3-0.1 0.2 -1.0
Monte Harrison 24 – 32-0.1 0.1 -0.9
Sean Rodríguez 35 FA-elig 4-0.1 0.1 -1.0
Brett Eibner 31 pre-arb 3-0.1 0.0 -1.1
Brian Moran↔ TOR 31 pre-arb 5-0.1 0.1 -1.2
Caleb Smith↔ ARI 28 – 1-0.1 0.0 -1.1
Humberto Mejía 23 – 3-0.2 0.0 -1.1
Sterling Sharp 25 – 4-0.2 0.1 -1.3
Brandon Kintzler 35 FA-elig 24-0.2 3.0 -4.3
Eddy Alvarez 30 – 12-0.2 0.1 -1.4
Justin Shafer 27 – 5-0.2 0.1 -1.4
Ryne Stanek 28 pre-arb 9-0.2 0.2 -1.6
Isan Díaz 24 pre-arb 7-0.2 0.1 -1.5
Braxton Garrett 22 – 2-0.2 0.0 -1.4
Lewis Brinson 26 pre-arb 47-0.2 0.2 -1.8
Jazz Chisholm Jr. 22 – 21-0.2 0.1 -1.7
Matt Joyce 35 FA-elig 46-0.2 0.1 -1.8
Nick Vincent 33 FA-elig 21-0.2 0.3 -2.0
Stephen Tarpley 27 pre-arb 12-0.2 0.2 -1.9
Logan Forsythe 33 FA-elig 13-0.3 0.2 -2.3
Robert Dugger 24 pre-arb 4-0.3 0.1 -2.2
Jorge Guzmán 24 – 1-0.3 0.0 -2.1
Lewin Díaz 23 – 14-0.3 0.1 -2.5
Jorge Alfaro 27 pre-arb 31-0.3 0.2 -2.8
Alex Vesia 24 – 5-0.4 0.2 -3.0
Jesús Sánchez 22 – 10-0.4 0.0 -2.9
Jonathan Villar↔ TOR 29 FA-elig 30-0.5 4.7 -8.1
Jordan Yamamoto 24 pre-arb 4-0.5 0.1 -3.5

Key additions (new vs 2019)

PlayerfWAR
Sixto Sánchez1.0
Yimi García0.6
Trevor Rogers0.4
Starling Marte0.4
Francisco Cervelli0.3
James Hoyt0.3

Key subtractions (gone from 2019)

Player2019 fWAR
Starlin Castro2.5
Nick Anderson1.0
Trevor Richards1.0
Zac Gallen0.7
Neil Walker0.7
Sergio Romo0.5

Current & Historical Payroll

2020 payroll
$42.9M
2021 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2020, 2020–2026. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2020; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (9)

PlayerAgeSvc2020202120222023202420252026
Corey Dickerson316.101$8.8MFREE AGENT
Starling Marte316.162$5.3MCLUBFREE AGENT
Brandon Kintzler358.003$3.0MFREE AGENT
Francisco Cervelli349.146$2.0MFREE AGENT
Nick Vincent336.052$310kFREE AGENT
Logan Forsythe338.113$213kFREE AGENT
Brad Boxberger326.050$100kFREE AGENT
Matt Joyce3510.123$100kFREE AGENT
Sean Rodríguez3510.105$100kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (9)

PlayerAgeSvc2020202120222023202420252026
Miguel Rojas315.043$4.8MFREE AGENT
Jonathan Villar295.113$4.7MFREE AGENT
José Ureña284.040$3.8MARB 3FREE AGENT
Jesús Aguilar303.082$2.6MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Richard Bleier333.074$828kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yimi García294.149$407kARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Morin294.026$197kARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Lavarnway323.001$57kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jesús Sánchez225.118$37kFREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (43)

PlayerAgeSvc2020202120222023202420252026
Sandy Alcantara241.100$230kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Anderson272.031$228kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryne Stanek282.038$224kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jon Berti300.168$220kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jorge Alfaro272.083$220kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Lewis Brinson261.115$215kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Harold Ramírez250.142$215kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Garrett Cooper292.053$215kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pablo López241.093$213kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Elieser Hernández251.118$212kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Magneuris Sierra240.138$209kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Stephen Tarpley270.130$209kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chad Wallach281.090$209kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeff Brigham280.126$209kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jordan Holloway242.163$209kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Neidert230.000$196kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
James Hoyt331.108$195kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh D. Smith30–$178k
Pat Venditte351.087$162kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alex Vesia240.000$153kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Robert Dugger240.034$146kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Moran311.027$122kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Leibrandt270.000$121kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sixto Sánchez210.000$121kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Monte Harrison241.145$118kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Trevor Rogers220.000$106kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sterling Sharp25–$100k
Daniel Castano250.000$97kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jazz Chisholm Jr.220.000$84kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eddy Alvarez300.000$78kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin Shafer271.034$60kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Lewin Díaz230.000$59kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh A. Smith32–$59k
Isan Díaz240.056$56kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jordan Yamamoto240.110$53kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brett Eibner310.156$44kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Humberto Mejía230.000$34kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jorge Guzmán242.005$28kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Caleb Smith282.077$25kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Johan Quezada250.000$19kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Navarreto250.000$19kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jesus Tinoco250.091$16kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Braxton Garrett220.000$6kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Marlins 2020; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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slot %{x} · %{customdata[1]:.1f} WAR
%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'MIA',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});