RRosternomics
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Brewers MIL

‹ ›

President of baseball ops: David Stearns · GM: Matt Arnold

Overview

WINDOW → steady
cheap & winning · year 5 in this regime · payroll 0.76× league · TAB +10.6
+10.6TAB — talent above budget6th/30
+16.6WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)3rd/30
9.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars6th/30
-7.1dead WAR — sub-replacement drag24th/30
23%dead money %8th/30
0.586win %4th/30
41.5roster fWAR8th/30
+40surplus $M (value vs cost)3rd/30
$96Mpayroll $M18th/30

2021: made playoffs · 95–67. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFJackie Bradley Jr. 89GLorenzo Cain 70GTyrone Taylor 16G
LFChristian Yelich 107GTyrone Taylor 37GJackie Bradley Jr. 14G
RFAvisaíl García 121GTyrone Taylor 29GJackie Bradley Jr. 17G
SSWilly Adames 136GLuis Urías 68GDaniel Robertson 8G
2BKolten Wong 113GJace Peterson 35GLuis Urías 25G
3BEduardo Escobar 99GLuis Urías 68GTravis Shaw 48G
1BRowdy Tellez 65GDaniel Vogelbach 59GKeston Hiura 49G
STARTERSCorbin Burnes 7.6WARBrandon Woodruff 4.7WARFreddy Peralta 3.8WAREric Lauer 2.0WARAdrian Houser 1.5WAR
COmar Narváez 111GManny Piña 65GLuke Maile 12G
DHChristian Yelich 4GDaniel Vogelbach 3GWilly Adames 2G
BULLPEN★ Josh Hader 34svBrad Boxberger 23hDevin Williams 23hBrent Suter 9hDaniel Norris 7hJake Cousins 7hJohn Curtiss 5hHunter Strickland 4h
COmar Narváez 111 · Manny Piña 65 · Luke Maile 12
1BRowdy Tellez 65 · Daniel Vogelbach 59 · Keston Hiura 49
2BKolten Wong 113 · Jace Peterson 35 · Luis Urías 25
3BEduardo Escobar 99 · Luis Urías 68 · Travis Shaw 48
SSWilly Adames 136 · Luis Urías 68 · Daniel Robertson 8
LFChristian Yelich 107 · Tyrone Taylor 37 · Jackie Bradley Jr. 14
CFJackie Bradley Jr. 89 · Lorenzo Cain 70 · Tyrone Taylor 16
RFAvisaíl García 121 · Tyrone Taylor 29 · Jackie Bradley Jr. 17
DHChristian Yelich 4 · Daniel Vogelbach 3 · Willy Adames 2
SPCorbin Burnes 7.6 · Brandon Woodruff 4.7 · Freddy Peralta 3.8 · Eric Lauer 2.0 · Adrian Houser 1.5
BP★ Josh Hader 34 · Brad Boxberger 23 · Devin Williams 23 · Brent Suter 9 · Daniel Norris 7 · Jake Cousins 7 · John Curtiss 5 · Hunter Strickland 4

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2021 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Corbin Burnes 26 pre-arb 287.6 0.6 +24.1
Brandon Woodruff 28 arb 304.7 3.3 +12.1
Freddy Peralta 25 arb 293.8 1.2 +11.2
Willy Adames↔ TBR 25 pre-arb 993.2 0.3 +10.0
Omar Narváez 29 arb 1232.8 2.5 +6.5
Kolten Wong 30 FA-elig 1162.6 7.5 +1.0
Josh Hader 27 arb 602.6 6.7 +1.8
Luis Urías 24 pre-arb 1502.4 0.6 +7.1
Avisaíl García 30 FA-elig 1352.3 10.8 -3.3
Eric Lauer 26 pre-arb 262.0 0.5 +6.0
Manny Piña 34 FA-elig 751.8 1.6 +4.2
Adrian Houser 28 pre-arb 281.5 0.6 +4.4
Lorenzo Cain 35 FA-elig 781.5 17.0 -12.1
Christian Yelich 29 FA-elig 1171.4 14.0 -9.4
Devin Williams 26 pre-arb 581.4 0.7 +3.8
Tyrone Taylor 27 pre-arb 931.3 0.5 +3.8
Brad Boxberger 33 FA-elig 710.8 0.1 +2.5
Jace Peterson 31 FA-elig 940.8 0.6 +2.1
Brett Anderson 33 FA-elig 240.8 2.5 -0.1
Eduardo Escobar↔ ARI 32 FA-elig 480.7 2.5 -0.4
Brent Suter 31 arb 610.5 1.6 -0.0
Aaron Ashby 23 – 140.4 0.1 +1.2
Hunter Strickland↔ ANA 32 FA-elig 350.3 0.4 +0.7
Rowdy Tellez↔ TOR 26 pre-arb 560.3 0.2 +0.8
Pablo Reyes 27 pre-arb 530.3 0.3 +0.6
Luke Maile 30 arb 150.2 0.1 +0.5
Jake Cousins 26 – 300.2 0.3 +0.2
Trevor Richards↔ TBR 28 – 150.1 0.1 +0.4
J.P. Feyereisen↔ TBR 28 – 210.1 0.2 +0.2
Jacob Nottingham↔ SEA 26 – 50.1 0.2 +0.0
Drew Rasmussen↔ TBR 25 – 150.1 0.2 +0.0
Derek Fisher 27 pre-arb 40.1 0.3 -0.1
Mario Feliciano 22 – 10.0 0.0 +0.1
Blaine Hardy 34 arb 10.0 0.0 +0.1
Ryan Weber↔ BOS 30 – 10.0 0.1 -0.1
Corey Ray 26 – 1-0.0 0.0 -0.1
John Axford 38 FA-elig 1-0.0 0.3 -0.4
Patrick Weigel 26 pre-arb 3-0.0 0.1 -0.2
Billy McKinney↔ LAD 26 – 40-0.0 0.1 -0.2
Daniel Vogelbach 28 arb 93-0.1 1.4 -1.6
Jandel Gustave 28 pre-arb 14-0.1 0.3 -0.5
Colin Rea 30 arb 1-0.1 0.0 -0.2
Jordan Zimmermann 35 FA-elig 2-0.1 0.1 -0.4
Phil Bickford↔ LAD 25 – 1-0.1 0.0 -0.3
Orlando Arcia↔ ATL 26 arb 4-0.1 0.2 -0.5
Miguel Sánchez 27 – 28-0.2 0.3 -0.8
Justin Topa 30 pre-arb 4-0.2 0.5 -1.1
Alec Bettinger 25 – 4-0.2 0.1 -0.7
Hoby Milner 30 arb 19-0.2 0.6 -1.3
Sal Romano↔ CIN 27 – 1-0.2 0.0 -0.7
Tim Lopes 27 – 7-0.2 – –
Angel Perdomo 27 pre-arb 19-0.2 0.5 -1.2
Zack Godley 31 FA-elig 2-0.3 0.1 -1.0
John Curtiss↔ MIA 28 pre-arb 6-0.3 0.1 -1.0
Josh Lindblom 34 FA-elig 8-0.3 3.0 -4.1
Daniel Robertson 27 arb 50-0.4 0.9 -2.1
Eric Yardley 30 pre-arb 17-0.4 0.2 -1.5
Daniel Norris↔ DET 28 FA-elig 18-0.4 1.1 -2.5
Travis Shaw↔ BOS 31 FA-elig 56-0.5 1.0 -2.5
Keston Hiura 24 pre-arb 61-0.8 0.3 -2.9
Jackie Bradley Jr. 31 FA-elig 134-1.7 6.5 -12.1

Key additions (new vs 2020)

PlayerfWAR
Willy Adames3.2
Kolten Wong2.6
Brad Boxberger0.8
Eduardo Escobar0.7
Aaron Ashby0.4
Hunter Strickland0.3

Key subtractions (gone from 2020)

Player2020 fWAR
Jedd Gyorko0.9
David Phelps0.3
Alex Claudio0.1
Ben Gamel0.1
Ray Black0.0
Ryon Healy-0.1

Current & Historical Payroll

2021 payroll
$95.6M
2022 guaranteed
$26.8M

What the front office was committed to as of 2021, 2021–2027. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2021; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (13)

PlayerAgeSvc2021202220232024202520262027
Lorenzo Cain358.099$17.0MFREE AGENT
Christian Yelich297.069$14.0M$24.3M$24.3M$24.2M$24.1M$24.0M$23.9M
Avisaíl García307.167$10.8MFREE AGENT
Kolten Wong307.045$7.5MFREE AGENT
Jackie Bradley Jr.318.000$6.5MFREE AGENT
Eduardo Escobar328.128$2.5MFREE AGENT
Brett Anderson3311.135$2.5MFREE AGENT
Manny Piña3410.000$1.6MFREE AGENT
Freddy Peralta252.090$1.2M$2.5M$3.7M$5.7M$8.1MCLUB$8.0MCLUBFREE AGENT
John Axford388.118$339kFREE AGENT
Jordan Zimmermann3512.000$100kFREE AGENT
Brad Boxberger337.033$100kFREE AGENT
Zack Godley316.000$100kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (13)

PlayerAgeSvc2021202220232024202520262027
Josh Hader273.115$6.7MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Omar Narváez294.089$2.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Brent Suter313.161$1.6MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Daniel Vogelbach285.000$1.4MFREE AGENT
Daniel Norris285.073$1.1MFREE AGENT
Travis Shaw315.053$1.0MFREE AGENT
Daniel Robertson273.029$900kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jace Peterson314.149$570kARB 3FREE AGENT
Hunter Strickland325.033$350kFREE AGENT
Orlando Arcia264.047$222kARB 3FREE AGENT
Luke Maile304.099$142kARB 3FREE AGENT
Blaine Hardy344.108$28kARB 3FREE AGENT
Colin Rea303.085$15kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (35)

PlayerAgeSvc2021202220232024202520262027
Brandon Woodruff282.161$3.3MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Lindblom342.151$3.0MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Devin Williams261.056$681kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Corbin Burnes262.049$608kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adrian Houser282.010$584kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Urías241.120$575kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Hoby Milner302.015$570kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin Topa300.050$521kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyrone Taylor270.098$472kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Angel Perdomo270.028$463kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eric Lauer262.057$451kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jake Cousins260.000$319kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Keston Hiura241.114$317kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Willy Adames252.105$305kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pablo Reyes270.127$279kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jandel Gustave282.096$261kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Miguel Sánchez270.000$261kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Derek Fisher272.061$260kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eric Yardley301.040$233kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jacob Nottingham261.026$192kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Drew Rasmussen250.128$180kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
J.P. Feyereisen280.108$160kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rowdy Tellez262.012$151kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Weber302.138$143kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Aaron Ashby230.000$138kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Billy McKinney261.107$79kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Trevor Richards282.098$78kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alec Bettinger25–$64k
Patrick Weigel260.011$58kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
John Curtiss281.045$55kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Corey Ray261.004$9kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sal Romano272.125$7kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Phil Bickford250.008$7kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mario Feliciano220.000$3kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tim Lopes27–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Brewers 2021; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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Pick a wider year range.

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slot %{x} · %{customdata[1]:.1f} WAR
%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'MIL',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});