RRosternomics
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Twins MIN

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President of baseball ops: Derek Falvey · GM: Thad Levine

Overview

CONTEND ↗ rising
expensive & winning · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.01× league · TAB +9.3
+9.3TAB — talent above budget7th/30
+4.9WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)11th/30
9.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars4th/30
-3.2dead WAR — sub-replacement drag7th/30
15%dead money %2nd/30
0.537win %11th/30
43.6roster fWAR8th/30
+18surplus $M (value vs cost)8th/30
$155Mpayroll $M17th/30

2023: made playoffs · 87–75. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFMichael A. Taylor 126GWilli Castro 45GNick Gordon 20G
LFWilli Castro 54GJoey Gallo 51GTrevor Larnach 44G
RFMax Kepler 124GMatt Wallner 29GTrevor Larnach 20G
SSCarlos Correa 135GKyle Farmer 40GWilli Castro 8G
2BEdouard Julien 75GJorge Polanco 58GKyle Farmer 45G
3BRoyce Lewis 49GKyle Farmer 43GWilli Castro 41G
1BDonovan Solano 85GAlex Kirilloff 75GJoey Gallo 51G
STARTERSSonny Gray 5.4WARPablo López 4.6WARBailey Ober 2.5WARJoe Ryan 2.3WARKenta Maeda 1.6WAR
CChristian Vázquez 94GRyan Jeffers 82G
DHByron Buxton 80GEdouard Julien 27GDonovan Solano 13G
BULLPEN★ Jhoan Duran 27svGriffin Jax 23hCaleb Thielbar 14hDylan Floro 9hJovani Morán 9hEmilio Pagán 8hBrock Stewart 8hJosh Winder 1h
CChristian Vázquez 94 · Ryan Jeffers 82
1BDonovan Solano 85 · Alex Kirilloff 75 · Joey Gallo 51
2BEdouard Julien 75 · Jorge Polanco 58 · Kyle Farmer 45
3BRoyce Lewis 49 · Kyle Farmer 43 · Willi Castro 41
SSCarlos Correa 135 · Kyle Farmer 40 · Willi Castro 8
LFWilli Castro 54 · Joey Gallo 51 · Trevor Larnach 44
CFMichael A. Taylor 126 · Willi Castro 45 · Nick Gordon 20
RFMax Kepler 124 · Matt Wallner 29 · Trevor Larnach 20
DHByron Buxton 80 · Edouard Julien 27 · Donovan Solano 13
SPSonny Gray 5.4 · Pablo López 4.6 · Bailey Ober 2.5 · Joe Ryan 2.3 · Kenta Maeda 1.6
BP★ Jhoan Duran 27 · Griffin Jax 23 · Caleb Thielbar 14 · Dylan Floro 9 · Jovani Morán 9 · Emilio Pagán 8 · Brock Stewart 8 · Josh Winder 1

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2023 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Sonny Gray 33 FA-elig 325.4 13.3 +8.1
Pablo López 27 arb 324.6 5.5 +12.8
Max Kepler 30 FA-elig 1302.7 8.5 +2.2
Edouard Julien 24 – 1092.6 0.5 +9.9
Bailey Ober 27 pre-arb 262.5 0.5 +9.2
Willi Castro 26 arb 1242.4 1.8 +7.8
Joe Ryan 27 pre-arb 292.3 0.7 +8.5
Royce Lewis 24 pre-arb 582.3 0.7 +8.3
Ryan Jeffers 26 arb 962.3 0.7 +8.2
Michael A. Taylor 32 FA-elig 1291.9 4.5 +3.0
Carlos Correa 28 FA-elig 1351.7 33.3 -26.5
Kenta Maeda 35 FA-elig 211.6 3.1 +3.3
Matt Wallner 25 pre-arb 761.6 0.4 +5.9
Kyle Farmer 32 FA-elig 1201.4 5.6 -0.0
Jorge Polanco 29 FA-elig 801.3 7.5 -2.2
Griffin Jax 28 pre-arb 711.2 0.7 +4.1
Emilio Pagán 32 FA-elig 661.2 3.5 +1.2
Donovan Solano 35 FA-elig 1341.1 2.0 +2.4
Jhoan Duran 25 pre-arb 591.1 0.7 +3.6
Brock Stewart 31 pre-arb 280.9 0.6 +2.8
Christian Vázquez 32 FA-elig 1020.8 10.0 -6.6
Joey Gallo 29 FA-elig 1110.7 11.0 -8.0
Alex Kirilloff 25 pre-arb 880.5 0.7 +1.4
Byron Buxton 29 FA-elig 850.5 15.1 -13.1
Tyler Mahle 28 FA-elig 50.4 7.5 -6.0
Jovani Morán 26 pre-arb 430.3 0.7 +0.4
Kody Funderburk 26 – 110.3 0.1 +1.0
Dylan Floro↔ MIA 32 FA-elig 190.2 1.3 -0.5
José De León 30 – 130.2 0.5 +0.2
Dallas Keuchel 35 FA-elig 100.2 0.2 +0.4
Louis Varland 25 – 170.2 – –
Josh Winder 26 pre-arb 190.1 0.7 -0.1
Trevor Larnach 26 pre-arb 580.1 0.7 -0.3
Caleb Thielbar 36 FA-elig 360.1 2.4 -1.9
Chris Paddack 27 arb 30.1 2.5 -2.3
Jordan Luplow↔ TOR 29 arb 320.0 0.4 -0.3
Oliver Ortega 26 pre-arb 10-0.0 0.3 -0.3
Dereck Rodríguez↔ ATL 31 – 1-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Andrew Stevenson 29 pre-arb 25-0.0 0.1 -0.2
Simeon Woods Richardson 22 – 1-0.0 0.0 -0.2
Kyle Garlick 31 arb 14-0.1 0.8 -1.0
Cole Sands 25 pre-arb 15-0.1 0.7 -1.3
Brent Headrick 25 – 14-0.3 0.2 -1.4
Jordan Balazovic 24 – 18-0.4 0.3 -1.7
Jorge Alcala 27 arb 11-0.4 0.8 -2.5
Nick Gordon 27 pre-arb 34-0.5 0.7 -2.7
Jorge López↔ BAL 30 FA-elig 37-0.7 2.1 -4.7
Jose Miranda 25 pre-arb 40-0.7 0.7 -3.5

Key additions (new vs 2022)

PlayerfWAR
Pablo López4.6
Edouard Julien2.6
Willi Castro2.4
Michael A. Taylor1.9
Kenta Maeda1.6
Kyle Farmer1.4

Key subtractions (gone from 2022)

Player2022 fWAR
Luis Arraez2.7
Gio Urshela2.6
Gary Sánchez1.4
Dylan Bundy0.8
Chris Archer0.5
Trevor Megill0.4

Current & Historical Payroll

2023 payroll
$155.0M
2024 guaranteed
$48.5M

What the front office was committed to as of 2023, 2023–2029. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2023; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (13)

PlayerAgeSvc2023202420252026202720282029
Carlos Correa287.119$33.3M$33.3M$8.4M$21.5M$20.5M$20.0M$25.0MVEST
Byron Buxton296.160$15.1M$15.1M$16.1M$15.1M$15.1M$15.1MFREE AGENT
Sonny Gray339.061$13.3MCLUBFREE AGENT
Joey Gallo296.103$11.0MFREE AGENT
Christian Vázquez328.031$10.0MFREE AGENT
Max Kepler306.152$8.5MFREE AGENT
Jorge Polanco296.024$7.5MFREE AGENT
Michael A. Taylor329.000$4.5MFREE AGENT
Kenta Maeda357.000$3.1MFREE AGENT
Donovan Solano357.081$2.0MFREE AGENT
Dylan Floro327.000$1.3MFREE AGENT
José De León307.000$534kFREE AGENT
Dallas Keuchel359.120$228kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (10)

PlayerAgeSvc2023202420252026202720282029
Tyler Mahle285.018$7.5MFREE AGENT
Kyle Farmer324.129$5.6MARB 3FREE AGENT
Pablo López274.093$5.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Emilio Pagán325.091$3.5MFREE AGENT
Chris Paddack274.000$2.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Caleb Thielbar364.131$2.4MARB 3FREE AGENT
Jorge López304.102$2.1MARB 3FREE AGENT
Willi Castro263.017$1.8MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jorge Alcala273.014$790kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jordan Luplow294.108$358kARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (25)

PlayerAgeSvc2023202420252026202720282029
Kyle Garlick312.163$750kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Jeffers262.089$742kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Gordon271.136$735kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Trevor Larnach261.101$734kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Griffin Jax281.091$733kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe Ryan271.033$730kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jose Miranda250.157$728kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Royce Lewis240.142$727kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jovani Morán260.124$726kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Winder260.113$726kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cole Sands250.073$724kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jhoan Duran251.000$720kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alex Kirilloff251.141$716kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brock Stewart311.105$615kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bailey Ober271.124$542kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Edouard Julien240.000$523kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Wallner250.019$352kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Oliver Ortega260.116$286kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jordan Balazovic24–$252k
Brent Headrick250.000$190kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kody Funderburk260.000$132kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andrew Stevenson292.127$116kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dereck Rodríguez311.110$14kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Simeon Woods Richardson221.000$8kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Louis Varland251.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Twins 2023; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'MIN',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});