RRosternomics
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Athletics OAK

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GM: Billy Beane

Overview

WINDOW ↗ rising
cheap & winning · year 1 in this regime · payroll 0.61× league · TAB +10.6
+10.6TAB — talent above budget3rd/30
+18.2WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)2nd/30
8.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars11th/30
-3.8dead WAR — sub-replacement drag7th/30
43%dead money %25th/30
0.580win %4th/30
38.9roster fWAR12th/30
+37surplus $M (value vs cost)2nd/30
$61Mpayroll $M27th/30

2012: made playoffs · 94–68. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFCoco Crisp 97GYoenis Cespedes 48GCollin Cowgill 15G
LFSeth Smith 57GYoenis Cespedes 56GJonny Gomes 39G
RFJosh Reddick 136GBrandon Moss 13GSeth Smith 13G
SSCliff Pennington 93GStephen Drew 75GBrandon Hicks 19G
2BJemile Weeks 113GCliff Pennington 32GAdam Rosales 21G
3BBrandon Inge 76GJosh Donaldson 71GEric Sogard 14G
1BChris Carter 55GBrandon Moss 55GDaric Barton 43G
STARTERSJarrod Parker 3.6WARTommy Milone 3.1WARBartolo Colon 2.5WARBrandon McCarthy 1.9WARA.J. Griffin 1.4WAR
CDerek Norris 58GGeorge Kottaras 54GJosh Donaldson 3G
DHJonny Gomes 52GSeth Smith 50GYoenis Cespedes 26G
BULLPEN★ Grant Balfour 24svRyan Cook 21hSean Doolittle 18hJerry Blevins 14hJordan Norberto 4hEvan Scribner 1hJim Miller 0hJeremy Accardo 0h
CDerek Norris 58 · George Kottaras 54 · Josh Donaldson 3
1BChris Carter 55 · Brandon Moss 55 · Daric Barton 43
2BJemile Weeks 113 · Cliff Pennington 32 · Adam Rosales 21
3BBrandon Inge 76 · Josh Donaldson 71 · Eric Sogard 14
SSCliff Pennington 93 · Stephen Drew 75 · Brandon Hicks 19
LFSeth Smith 57 · Yoenis Cespedes 56 · Jonny Gomes 39
CFCoco Crisp 97 · Yoenis Cespedes 48 · Collin Cowgill 15
RFJosh Reddick 136 · Brandon Moss 13 · Seth Smith 13
DHJonny Gomes 52 · Seth Smith 50 · Yoenis Cespedes 26
SPJarrod Parker 3.6 · Tommy Milone 3.1 · Bartolo Colon 2.5 · Brandon McCarthy 1.9 · A.J. Griffin 1.4
BP★ Grant Balfour 24 · Ryan Cook 21 · Sean Doolittle 18 · Jerry Blevins 14 · Jordan Norberto 4 · Evan Scribner 1 · Jim Miller 0 · Jeremy Accardo 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2012 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Yoenis Cespedes 26 pre-arb 1294.0 6.5 +3.8
Josh Reddick 25 arb 1563.6 0.5 +8.9
Jarrod Parker 23 pre-arb 293.6 0.5 +8.8
Tommy Milone 25 pre-arb 313.1 0.5 +7.5
Bartolo Colon 39 FA-elig 242.5 2.0 +4.6
Coco Crisp 32 FA-elig 1202.5 6.0 +0.5
Brandon Moss 28 pre-arb 842.4 0.5 +5.7
Jonny Gomes 31 FA-elig 992.3 1.0 +4.9
Brandon McCarthy 28 FA-elig 181.9 4.3 +0.6
Grant Balfour 34 FA-elig 751.6 4.0 +0.2
Sean Doolittle 25 – 441.6 0.5 +3.7
Ryan Cook 25 pre-arb 711.6 0.5 +3.5
Seth Smith 29 arb 1251.5 2.4 +1.5
Chris Carter 25 pre-arb 671.5 0.5 +3.3
A.J. Griffin 24 – 151.4 0.5 +3.2
Josh Donaldson 26 pre-arb 751.2 0.5 +2.5
Travis Blackley↔ SFG 29 – 241.1 – –
Cliff Pennington 28 arb 1251.0 0.5 +2.1
Brett Anderson 24 arb 60.9 3.2 -0.9
Derek Norris 23 – 600.6 0.5 +1.1
Jordan Norberto 25 pre-arb 390.5 0.5 +0.8
Daric Barton 26 arb 460.4 1.1 -0.0
Evan Scribner 26 pre-arb 300.4 0.5 +0.5
George Kottaras↔ MIL 29 arb 270.3 0.2 +0.7
Stephen Drew↔ ARI 29 FA-elig 390.3 3.8 -3.0
Tyson Ross 25 pre-arb 180.3 0.5 +0.3
Collin Cowgill 26 pre-arb 380.2 0.5 -0.1
Adam Rosales 29 arb 420.1 0.6 -0.2
Brandon Inge↔ DET 35 FA-elig 740.1 4.9 -4.6
Jerry Blevins 28 arb 630.1 0.5 -0.3
Jeremy Accardo↔ CLE 30 arb 10.0 0.0 +0.1
Rich Thompson↔ ANA 27 arb 10.0 0.2 -0.2
Fautino De Los Santos 26 pre-arb 60.0 0.5 -0.5
Andrew Carignan 25 pre-arb 11-0.0 0.5 -0.5
Pat Neshek 31 – 24-0.0 – –
Kila Ka'aihue 28 arb 39-0.1 0.5 -0.7
Pedro Figueroa 26 pre-arb 19-0.1 0.5 -0.7
Jesse Chavez↔ TOR 28 pre-arb 4-0.1 0.1 -0.3
Brandon Hicks 26 pre-arb 22-0.1 0.5 -0.8
Michael Taylor 26 pre-arb 6-0.1 0.5 -0.8
Jim Miller 30 – 33-0.1 – –
Brandon Allen↔ TBR 26 arb 3-0.1 0.1 -0.5
Jemile Weeks 25 pre-arb 118-0.2 0.5 -0.9
Graham Godfrey 27 pre-arb 5-0.2 0.5 -1.1
Eric Sogard 26 pre-arb 37-0.3 0.5 -1.2
Brian Fuentes↔ STL 36 FA-elig 26-0.3 4.1 -4.9
Dan Straily 23 – 7-0.4 0.5 -1.5
Anthony Recker↔ CHC 28 pre-arb 13-0.4 0.3 -1.3
Luke Hughes↔ MIN 27 pre-arb 4-0.4 0.2 -1.4
Kurt Suzuki↔ WSN 28 arb 75-0.8 3.2 -5.2

Key additions (new vs 2011)

PlayerfWAR
Yoenis Cespedes4.0
Josh Reddick3.6
Jarrod Parker3.6
Tommy Milone3.1
Bartolo Colon2.5
Brandon Moss2.4

Key subtractions (gone from 2011)

Player2011 fWAR
Gio Gonzalez3.3
Josh Willingham2.1
Trevor Cahill2.0
David DeJesus1.7
Guillermo Moscoso1.5
Andrew Bailey1.0

Current & Historical Payroll

2012 payroll
$60.9M

What the front office was committed to as of 2012, 2012–2018. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (6)

PlayerAgeSvc2012201320142015201620172018
Coco Crisp328.158$6.0M$7.0M$7.5M$11.0M$9.2MFREE AGENT
Brandon Inge3510.095$4.9MFREE AGENT
Brian Fuentes369.125$4.1MFREE AGENT
Grant Balfour347.099$4.0M$4.5MFREE AGENT
Bartolo Colon3913.061$2.0M$3.0MFREE AGENT
Jonny Gomes316.097$1.0MFREE AGENT$3.5M

Arbitration-eligible (9)

PlayerAgeSvc2012201320142015201620172018
Brandon McCarthy285.122$4.3MFREE AGENT
Stephen Drew295.079$3.8MFREE AGENT
Brett Anderson243.000$3.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kurt Suzuki284.112$3.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Seth Smith293.119$2.4MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Daric Barton263.057$1.1MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rich Thompson275.000$165kFREE AGENT
Jeremy Accardo304.128$33kARB 3FREE AGENT
Pat Neshek315.005—FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (35)

PlayerAgeSvc2012201320142015201620172018
Yoenis Cespedes260.000$6.5MPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adam Rosales292.171$600kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cliff Pennington282.114$490kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jerry Blevins282.081$490kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Reddick251.050$485kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Fautino De Los Santos261.000$482kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jordan Norberto251.132$482kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jemile Weeks250.114$482kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kila Ka'aihue281.048$482kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eric Sogard260.096$482kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Collin Cowgill260.065$482kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jarrod Parker230.010$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Donaldson262.000$480kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Derek Norris230.000$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sean Doolittle250.000$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Taylor260.038$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andrew Carignan250.027$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Carter251.016$480kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Graham Godfrey270.074$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tommy Milone250.026$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Evan Scribner260.070$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dan Straily230.000$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pedro Figueroa260.077$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Moss282.043$480kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
A.J. Griffin240.000$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Cook250.036$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyson Ross251.033$480kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Hicks261.151$480kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Anthony Recker280.037$284kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luke Hughes270.147$242kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
George Kottaras292.149$222kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jesse Chavez282.065$148kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Allen260.141$145kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Travis Blackley291.026—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jim Miller300.010—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Athletics 2012; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'OAK',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});