RRosternomics
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Athletics OAK

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GM: Billy Beane

Overview

WINDOW ↘ cooling
cheap & winning · year 3 in this regime · payroll 0.75× league · TAB +8.2
+8.2TAB — talent above budget6th/30
+9.7WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)6th/30
9.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars5th/30
-3.8dead WAR — sub-replacement drag6th/30
35%dead money %15th/30
0.543win %8th/30
39.0roster fWAR7th/30
+30surplus $M (value vs cost)4th/30
$85Mpayroll $M22nd/30

2014: made playoffs · 88–74. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFCoco Crisp 111GSam Fuld 62GCraig Gentry 50G
LFJonny Gomes 84GBrandon Moss 56GSam Fuld 36G
RFJosh Reddick 107GBrandon Moss 34GCraig Gentry 29G
SSJed Lowrie 130GNick Punto 17GAndy Parrino 14G
2BEric Sogard 102GNick Punto 52GAlberto Callaspo 46G
3BJosh Donaldson 150GAlberto Callaspo 19GNick Punto 2G
1BBrandon Moss 67GStephen Vogt 47GNate Freiman 33G
STARTERSSonny Gray 3.4WARScott Kazmir 3.3WARJeff Samardzija 2.2WARJon Lester 1.6WARJesse Chavez 1.5WAR
CDerek Norris 114GJohn Jaso 54GGeovany Soto 24G
DHAdam Dunn 95GAlberto Callaspo 38GJohn Jaso 35G
BULLPEN★ Sean Doolittle 22svLuke Gregerson 22hDan Otero 12hFernando Abad 9hRyan Cook 7hEric O'Flaherty 3hFernando Rodriguez Jr. 1hEvan Scribner 0h
CDerek Norris 114 · John Jaso 54 · Geovany Soto 24
1BBrandon Moss 67 · Stephen Vogt 47 · Nate Freiman 33
2BEric Sogard 102 · Nick Punto 52 · Alberto Callaspo 46
3BJosh Donaldson 150 · Alberto Callaspo 19 · Nick Punto 2
SSJed Lowrie 130 · Nick Punto 17 · Andy Parrino 14
LFJonny Gomes 84 · Brandon Moss 56 · Sam Fuld 36
CFCoco Crisp 111 · Sam Fuld 62 · Craig Gentry 50
RFJosh Reddick 107 · Brandon Moss 34 · Craig Gentry 29
DHAdam Dunn 95 · Alberto Callaspo 38 · John Jaso 35
SPSonny Gray 3.4 · Scott Kazmir 3.3 · Jeff Samardzija 2.2 · Jon Lester 1.6 · Jesse Chavez 1.5
BP★ Sean Doolittle 22 · Luke Gregerson 22 · Dan Otero 12 · Fernando Abad 9 · Ryan Cook 7 · Eric O'Flaherty 3 · Fernando Rodriguez Jr. 1 · Evan Scribner 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2014 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Josh Donaldson 28 arb 1585.7 0.5 +16.1
Sonny Gray 24 pre-arb 333.4 0.5 +9.5
Scott Kazmir 30 FA-elig 323.3 7.0 +2.8
Brandon Moss 30 FA-elig 1472.7 4.1 +3.7
Yoenis Cespedes↔ BOS 28 pre-arb 1012.5 7.0 +0.4
Sean Doolittle 27 pre-arb 622.5 0.6 +6.6
Derek Norris 25 pre-arb 1272.2 0.5 +5.9
Jeff Samardzija↔ CHC 29 FA-elig 162.2 2.6 +3.8
Josh Reddick 27 arb 1092.1 2.7 +3.6
Jed Lowrie 30 FA-elig 1361.7 5.2 -0.2
Coco Crisp 34 FA-elig 1261.7 7.5 -2.6
Jon Lester↔ BOS 30 FA-elig 111.6 4.5 +0.1
Jesse Chavez 30 FA-elig 321.5 0.8 +3.7
Stephen Vogt 29 pre-arb 841.5 0.5 +3.9
Craig Gentry 30 arb 941.3 1.1 +2.7
Sam Fuld↔ MIN 32 FA-elig 601.1 0.4 +2.9
Luke Gregerson 30 arb 720.9 5.1 -2.4
Drew Pomeranz 25 pre-arb 200.7 0.4 +1.8
Dan Otero 29 pre-arb 720.7 0.5 +1.5
Fernando Abad 28 arb 690.6 0.5 +1.4
Tommy Milone↔ MIN 27 arb 170.6 0.4 +1.4
John Jaso 30 FA-elig 990.6 2.3 -0.7
Kyle Blanks↔ SDP 27 arb 210.5 0.8 +0.8
Geovany Soto↔ TEX 31 FA-elig 140.4 1.8 -0.7
Ryan Cook 27 arb 540.3 0.5 +0.4
Nick Punto 36 FA-elig 730.2 2.8 -2.2
Eric Sogard 28 arb 1170.1 0.5 -0.2
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. 30 arb 70.1 0.6 -0.3
Jeff Francis↔ CIN 33 – 90.0 – –
Nate Freiman 27 pre-arb 360.0 0.2 -0.2
Brad Mills↔ TOR 29 – 30.0 – –
Adam Dunn↔ CHW 34 FA-elig 25-0.0 2.9 -2.9
Joe Savery 28 pre-arb 3-0.0 0.5 -0.5
Andy Parrino 28 – 21-0.0 – –
Bryan Anderson 27 – 1-0.0 – –
Eric O'Flaherty 29 FA-elig 21-0.1 1.5 -1.7
Josh Lindblom 27 – 1-0.1 – –
Evan Scribner 28 arb 13-0.2 0.5 -1.0
Billy Burns 24 – 13-0.2 0.2 -0.8
Dan Straily↔ CHC 25 pre-arb 7-0.2 0.3 -0.9
Jonny Gomes↔ BOS 33 FA-elig 34-0.3 1.5 -2.3
Jason Hammel↔ CHC 31 FA-elig 13-0.3 2.6 -3.5
Daric Barton 28 FA-elig 30-0.5 1.2 -2.8
Jim Johnson↔ DET 31 FA-elig 38-0.6 7.0 -8.8
Alberto Callaspo 31 FA-elig 127-1.3 4.9 -8.6

Key additions (new vs 2013)

PlayerfWAR
Scott Kazmir3.3
Jeff Samardzija2.2
Jon Lester1.6
Craig Gentry1.3
Sam Fuld1.1
Luke Gregerson0.9

Key subtractions (gone from 2013)

Player2013 fWAR
Bartolo Colon3.9
Seth Smith0.7
Grant Balfour0.6
Jerry Blevins0.3
Michael Choice0.0
Casper Wells-0.0

Current & Historical Payroll

2014 payroll
$84.9M

What the front office was committed to as of 2014, 2014–2020. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (11)

PlayerAgeSvc2014201520162017201820192020
Coco Crisp3410.158$7.5M$11.0M$9.2MFREE AGENT
Scott Kazmir307.119$7.0M$7.5MFREE AGENT
Alberto Callaspo316.135$4.9MFREE AGENT
Jon Lester307.075$4.5MFREE AGENT
Adam Dunn3412.074$2.9MFREE AGENT
Nick Punto3611.051$2.8MFREE AGENT
Jason Hammel316.153$2.6MFREE AGENT
Geovany Soto316.096$1.8MFREE AGENT
Jonny Gomes338.097$1.5MFREE AGENT
Eric O'Flaherty296.062$1.5M$3.4MFREE AGENT
Jeff Francis338.157—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (12)

PlayerAgeSvc2014201520162017201820192020
Jim Johnson315.165$7.0MFREE AGENT
Jed Lowrie305.111$5.2MFREE AGENT
Luke Gregerson305.000$5.1MFREE AGENT
Brandon Moss303.160$4.1MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Reddick273.050$2.7MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeff Samardzija294.028$2.6MARB 3FREE AGENT
John Jaso304.032$2.3MARB 3FREE AGENT
Daric Barton284.030$1.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Craig Gentry303.084$1.1MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Blanks274.032$798kARB 3FREE AGENT
Jesse Chavez303.108$775kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sam Fuld323.140$425kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (22)

PlayerAgeSvc2014201520162017201820192020
Yoenis Cespedes282.000$7.0MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sean Doolittle271.122$630kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Fernando Rodriguez Jr.302.142$600kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Fernando Abad282.073$526kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eric Sogard282.064$510kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe Savery280.104$510kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Cook272.036$505kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Evan Scribner281.088$505kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Derek Norris251.102$505kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Stephen Vogt290.136$502kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dan Otero290.169$502kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sonny Gray240.061$502kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Donaldson281.158$500kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tommy Milone272.018$377kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Drew Pomeranz251.050$370kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dan Straily251.031$252kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nate Freiman271.000$216kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Billy Burns240.000$169kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bryan Anderson271.171—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Lindblom272.077—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brad Mills290.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andy Parrino282.109—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Athletics 2014; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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Not enough history to chart.

'; return; } const f=+document.getElementById('yfrom').value, t=+document.getElementById('yto').value, w=+document.getElementById('win').value; document.getElementById('yflab').textContent=f; document.getElementById('ytlab').textContent=t; document.getElementById('winlab').textContent = w===1?'raw':(w+'-yr'); const dark=document.documentElement.getAttribute('data-theme')==='dark'; const ink=dark?'#cdd4dc':'#1d2630', grid=dark?'#2c313a':'#d6dbe2', refc=dark?'#5a636d':'#9aa3ad', dirc=dark?'#ffffff':'#1d2630'; const col=contrastColor(TEAMCOL,dark); function sm(a,w){const h=(w-1)/2,o=[];for(let i=0;id[0]>=f&&d[0]<=t); if(raw.length<2){ Plotly.purge('orbit'); orbEl.innerHTML='

Pick a wider year range.

'; return; } const s=sm(raw,w),n=s.length,X=s.map(d=>Math.round(d[1]*100)/100),Y=s.map(d=>Math.round(d[2]*10)/10),yr=s.map(d=>d[0]); let xa=Math.min(1,...X),xb=Math.max(1,...X),ya=Math.min(0,...Y),yb=Math.max(0,...Y); const px=(xb-xa)*.12+.04,py=(yb-ya)*.12+1.5;xa-=px;xb+=px;ya-=py;yb+=py; const k=Math.max(0,n-3), ann=[]; [['WINDOW','#15b6a0',xa<1&&yb>0,xa,yb,'left','top'],['CONTEND','#2f7ed8',xb>1&&yb>0,xb,yb,'right','top'], ['FORCED-SPEND','#ec5a3c',xb>1&&ya<0,xb,ya,'right','bottom'],['REBUILD','#f0a91c',xa<1&&ya<0,xa,ya,'left','bottom']].forEach(q=>{ if(q[2]) ann.push({x:q[3],y:q[4],xref:'x',yref:'y',text:q[0],showarrow:false,xanchor:q[5],yanchor:q[6],font:{size:10,color:q[1]},opacity:.85});}); ann.push({x:X[n-1],y:Y[n-1],ax:X[n-1]-0.5*(X[n-1]-X[k]),ay:Y[n-1]-0.5*(Y[n-1]-Y[k]),xref:'x',yref:'y',axref:'x',ayref:'y',showarrow:true,arrowhead:2,arrowsize:1.3,arrowwidth:1.7,arrowcolor:dirc,text:''}); Plotly.newPlot('orbit',[{x:X,y:Y,mode:'lines+markers',line:{color:col,width:2.6,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.7}, marker:{color:col,size:s.map((d,i)=>5+7*(i/Math.max(1,n-1))),line:{color:dark?'#1b1e23':'#fff',width:0.6}}, text:yr,hovertemplate:'%{text}
payroll %{x:.2f}× lg · TAB %{y:+.1f}
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slot %{x} · %{customdata[1]:.1f} WAR
%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'OAK',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});