RRosternomics
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Athletics OAK

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President of baseball ops: Billy Beane · GM: David Forst

Overview

WINDOW ↗ rising
cheap & winning · year 2 in this regime · payroll 0.59× league · TAB +15.2
+15.2TAB — talent above budget5th/30
+21.8WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)1st/30
7.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars12th/30
-3.4dead WAR — sub-replacement drag9th/30
49%dead money %25th/30
0.599win %4th/30
43.0roster fWAR7th/30
+70surplus $M (value vs cost)2nd/30
$77Mpayroll $M29th/30

2018: made playoffs · 97–65. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFMark Canha 62GDustin Fowler 57GRamón Laureano 47G
LFChad Pinder 64GMark Canha 51GMatt Joyce 49G
RFStephen Piscotty 151GMark Canha 10GChad Pinder 9G
SSMarcus Semien 159GChad Pinder 3GFranklin Barreto 2G
2BJed Lowrie 136GFranklin Barreto 26GChad Pinder 21G
3BMatt Chapman 145GChad Pinder 16GJed Lowrie 14G
1BMatt Olson 162GMark Canha 15GChad Pinder 1G
STARTERSTrevor Cahill 2.0WARSean Manaea 1.8WARBrett Anderson 0.9WARFrankie Montas 0.8WAREdwin Jackson 0.7WAR
CJonathan Lucroy 125GJosh Phegley 39GBruce Maxwell 16G
DHKhris Davis 139GMatt Joyce 10GJed Lowrie 4G
BULLPEN★ Blake Treinen 38svLou Trivino 23hYusmeiro Petit 16hRyan Buchter 16hCory Gearrin 9hJeurys Familia 7hFernando Rodney 7hEmilio Pagán 7h
CJonathan Lucroy 125 · Josh Phegley 39 · Bruce Maxwell 16
1BMatt Olson 162 · Mark Canha 15 · Chad Pinder 1
2BJed Lowrie 136 · Franklin Barreto 26 · Chad Pinder 21
3BMatt Chapman 145 · Chad Pinder 16 · Jed Lowrie 14
SSMarcus Semien 159 · Chad Pinder 3 · Franklin Barreto 2
LFChad Pinder 64 · Mark Canha 51 · Matt Joyce 49
CFMark Canha 62 · Dustin Fowler 57 · Ramón Laureano 47
RFStephen Piscotty 151 · Mark Canha 10 · Chad Pinder 9
DHKhris Davis 139 · Matt Joyce 10 · Jed Lowrie 4
SPTrevor Cahill 2.0 · Sean Manaea 1.8 · Brett Anderson 0.9 · Frankie Montas 0.8 · Edwin Jackson 0.7
BP★ Blake Treinen 38 · Lou Trivino 23 · Yusmeiro Petit 16 · Ryan Buchter 16 · Cory Gearrin 9 · Jeurys Familia 7 · Fernando Rodney 7 · Emilio Pagán 7

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2018 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Matt Chapman 25 pre-arb 1456.4 0.5 +21.2
Jed Lowrie 34 FA-elig 1575.1 6.0 +11.3
Blake Treinen 30 arb 683.6 2.1 +10.1
Stephen Piscotty 27 arb 1513.2 1.3 +9.7
Khris Davis 30 arb 1512.9 10.5 -0.5
Marcus Semien 27 arb 1592.9 3.1 +6.8
Matt Olson 24 pre-arb 1622.8 0.5 +9.0
Trevor Cahill 30 FA-elig 212.0 1.5 +5.3
Chad Pinder 26 pre-arb 1101.9 0.6 +5.9
Mark Canha 29 pre-arb 1221.9 0.5 +6.0
Ramón Laureano 23 – 481.9 0.2 +6.2
Sean Manaea 26 pre-arb 271.8 0.6 +5.6
Nick Martini 28 – 551.2 0.2 +3.8
Brett Anderson 30 FA-elig 170.9 0.1 +3.0
Frankie Montas 25 pre-arb 130.8 0.2 +2.6
Edwin Jackson 34 FA-elig 170.7 1.5 +0.9
Jeurys Familia↔ NYM 28 FA-elig 300.7 3.4 -1.0
Lou Trivino 26 – 690.6 0.5 +1.7
Yusmeiro Petit 33 FA-elig 740.6 3.5 -1.4
Ryan Buchter 31 arb 540.6 0.6 +1.5
Daniel Mengden 25 pre-arb 220.6 0.5 +1.4
Chris Bassitt 29 pre-arb 110.6 0.2 +1.8
Paul Blackburn 24 pre-arb 60.5 0.5 +1.2
Shawn Kelley↔ WSN 34 FA-elig 190.5 1.9 -0.3
Franklin Barreto 22 pre-arb 320.4 0.3 +1.1
Jonathan Lucroy 32 FA-elig 1260.3 6.5 -5.5
Ryan Dull 28 arb 280.2 0.6 +0.2
J.B. Wendelken 25 – 130.2 0.2 +0.5
Andrew Triggs 29 pre-arb 90.2 0.6 +0.1
Matt Joyce 33 FA-elig 830.2 6.0 -5.5
Mike Fiers↔ DET 33 FA-elig 100.1 1.9 -1.5
Liam Hendriks 29 FA-elig 250.1 1.9 -1.7
Santiago Casilla 37 FA-elig 260.1 6.0 -5.8
Beau Taylor 28 – 70.0 0.1 +0.1
Cory Gearrin↔ SFG 32 FA-elig 60.0 0.2 -0.1
Josh Lucas 27 pre-arb 8-0.0 0.1 -0.1
Jeremy Bleich 31 – 2-0.0 0.0 -0.0
Aaron Brooks 28 pre-arb 3-0.0 0.5 -0.6
Carlos Ramírez↔ TOR 27 pre-arb 3-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Fernando Rodney↔ MIN 41 FA-elig 22-0.0 1.4 -1.5
Dean Kiekhefer 29 – 4-0.1 0.1 -0.4
Boog Powell 25 pre-arb 7-0.2 0.5 -1.1
Trayce Thompson↔ CHW 27 – 3-0.2 0.0 -0.6
Emilio Pagán 27 pre-arb 55-0.2 0.5 -1.1
Josh Phegley 30 arb 39-0.2 0.9 -1.5
Daniel Gossett 25 pre-arb 5-0.2 0.5 -1.3
Danny Coulombe 28 arb 27-0.2 0.6 -1.3
Jake Smolinski 29 arb 20-0.2 0.8 -1.6
Wilmer Font↔ LAD 28 FA-elig 4-0.3 0.1 -1.0
Bruce Maxwell 27 pre-arb 18-0.3 0.6 -1.5
Kendall Graveman 27 arb 7-0.4 2.4 -3.6
Chris Hatcher 33 FA-elig 34-0.4 2.1 -3.6
Dustin Fowler 23 pre-arb 69-0.6 0.5 -2.4

Key additions (new vs 2017)

PlayerfWAR
Stephen Piscotty3.2
Trevor Cahill2.0
Ramón Laureano1.9
Nick Martini1.2
Brett Anderson0.9
Edwin Jackson0.7

Key subtractions (gone from 2017)

Player2017 fWAR
Sonny Gray2.2
Yonder Alonso1.9
Jesse Hahn1.2
Ryan Madson1.0
Sean Doolittle0.7
Rajai Davis0.4

Current & Historical Payroll

2018 payroll
$76.6M
2019 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2018, 2018–2024. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2018; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (11)

PlayerAgeSvc2018201920202021202220232024
Jonathan Lucroy327.136$6.5MFREE AGENT
Jed Lowrie349.111$6.0MFREE AGENT
Matt Joyce338.123$6.0MFREE AGENT
Santiago Casilla3714.000$6.0MFREE AGENT
Yusmeiro Petit337.016$3.5MFREE AGENT
Mike Fiers337.000$1.9MFREE AGENT
Shawn Kelley348.128$1.9MFREE AGENT
Edwin Jackson3411.114$1.5MFREE AGENT
Trevor Cahill308.098$1.5MFREE AGENT
Fernando Rodney4114.137$1.4MFREE AGENT
Brett Anderson308.155$100kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (10)

PlayerAgeSvc2018201920202021202220232024
Khris Davis304.104$10.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeurys Familia285.029$3.4MFREE AGENT
Marcus Semien273.118$3.1MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kendall Graveman273.014$2.4MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Hatcher334.146$2.1MARB 3FREE AGENT
Blake Treinen303.065$2.1MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Liam Hendriks294.038$1.9MARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Phegley303.114$905kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jake Smolinski293.016$775kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cory Gearrin324.136$162kARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (32)

PlayerAgeSvc2018201920202021202220232024
Stephen Piscotty272.076$1.3MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Buchter312.010$555kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Dull282.034$555kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sean Manaea261.157$550kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bruce Maxwell271.016$550kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andrew Triggs291.123$550kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chad Pinder261.047$550kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Danny Coulombe281.149$550kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Boog Powell250.100$548kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Olson240.103$548kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Emilio Pagán270.098$548kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Chapman250.109$548kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dustin Fowler230.095$548kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Daniel Mengden250.157$548kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Daniel Gossett250.091$548kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Paul Blackburn240.093$548kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Aaron Brooks281.070$545kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mark Canha292.092$518kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Lou Trivino260.000$475kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Franklin Barreto220.045$264kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Martini280.000$240kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Frankie Montas251.014$208kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ramón Laureano230.000$173kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Bassitt292.070$167kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
J.B. Wendelken250.000$164kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Lucas270.121$132kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Wilmer Font280.085$116kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dean Kiekhefer29–$88k
Beau Taylor280.000$88kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeremy Bleich31–$26k
Carlos Ramírez270.031$12kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Trayce Thompson271.124$11kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Athletics 2018; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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Pick a wider year range.

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slot %{x} · %{customdata[1]:.1f} WAR
%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'OAK',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});