RRosternomics

Phillies PHI

GM: Bill Giles

Overview

FORCED-SPEND → steady
expensive & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.07× league · TAB -9.5
-9.5TAB — talent above budget21st/26
-7.9WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)19th/26
7.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars16th/26
-4.1dead WAR — sub-replacement drag12th/26
34%dead money %20th/26
0.463win %19th/26
25.6roster fWAR20th/26
-4surplus $M (value vs cost)22nd/26
$10Mpayroll $M10th/26

Roster

CFVon Hayes 123GGarry Maddox 93GDerrel Thomas 2G
LFJeff Stone 69GVon Hayes 66GJohn Russell 49G
RFGlenn Wilson 157GVon Hayes 14GGreg Gross 9G
SSSteve Jeltz 86GTom Foley 60GLuis Aguayo 60G
2BJuan Samuel 159GLuis Aguayo 17GDerrel Thomas 1G
3BRick Schu 111GMike Schmidt 54GLuis Aguayo 7G
1BMike Schmidt 106GTim Corcoran 59GJohn Russell 18G
STARTERSKevin Gross 3.6WARJohn Denny 2.8WARShane Rawley 1.7WARCharles Hudson 0.9WARSteve Carlton 0.5WAR
COzzie Virgil Jr. 120GDarren Daulton 28GJohn Wockenfuss 2G
BULLPEN Kent Tekulve 14svDon Carman 0hLarry Andersen 0hDave Rucker 0hDave Shipanoff 0hRocky Childress 0hFreddie Toliver 0hPat Zachry 0h
COzzie Virgil Jr. 120 · Darren Daulton 28 · John Wockenfuss 2
1BMike Schmidt 106 · Tim Corcoran 59 · John Russell 18
2BJuan Samuel 159 · Luis Aguayo 17 · Derrel Thomas 1
3BRick Schu 111 · Mike Schmidt 54 · Luis Aguayo 7
SSSteve Jeltz 86 · Tom Foley 60 · Luis Aguayo 60
LFJeff Stone 69 · Von Hayes 66 · John Russell 49
CFVon Hayes 123 · Garry Maddox 93 · Derrel Thomas 2
RFGlenn Wilson 157 · Von Hayes 14 · Greg Gross 9
SPKevin Gross 3.6 · John Denny 2.8 · Shane Rawley 1.7 · Charles Hudson 0.9 · Steve Carlton 0.5
BP Kent Tekulve 14 · Don Carman 0 · Larry Andersen 0 · Dave Rucker 0 · Dave Shipanoff 0 · Rocky Childress 0 · Freddie Toliver 0 · Pat Zachry 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

1985 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Mike Schmidt 35 FA-elig 1585.2 2.1 -0.8
Kevin Gross 24 pre-arb 393.6 0.1 +0.8
John Denny 32 FA-elig 332.8 1.1 -0.4
Juan Samuel 24 pre-arb 1612.7 0.2 +0.5
Von Hayes 26 arb 1522.6 0.5 +0.2
Glenn Wilson 26 arb 1612.6 0.3 +0.4
Ozzie Virgil Jr. 28 arb 1312.2 0.3 +0.2
Shane Rawley 29 FA-elig 361.7 0.7 -0.3
Luis Aguayo 26 arb 911.6 0.2 +0.2
Don Carman 25 711.2
Charles Hudson 26 pre-arb 380.9 0.2 +0.0
Steve Carlton 40 FA-elig 160.5 1.1 -0.9
Darren Daulton 23 360.5
Tom Foley↔ CIN 25 pre-arb 460.4 0.1 +0.0
Larry Andersen 32 FA-elig 570.3 0.3 -0.2
Kent Tekulve↔ PIT 38 FA-elig 580.3 0.8 -0.7
Freddie Toliver 24 110.2
Bo Diaz↔ CIN 32 FA-elig 260.2 0.2 -0.2
Rocky Childress 23 160.1
Rick Surhoff↔ TEX 22 20.1
Jerry Koosman 42 FA-elig 190.0 0.6 -0.6
Greg Gross 32 FA-elig 930.0 0.3 -0.3
Dave Rucker 27 arb 41-0.0 0.2 -0.2
Dave Shipanoff 25 26-0.0
Rick Schu 23 112-0.0
Dave Stewart↔ TEX 28 FA-elig 4-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Kiko Garcia 31 4-0.1
Al Holland↔ ANA 32 FA-elig 3-0.1 0.0 -0.1
Derrel Thomas 34 63-0.1
Pat Zachry 33 10-0.2
Alan Knicely↔ CIN 30 FA-elig 7-0.2 0.0 -0.1
John Russell 24 81-0.2
Garry Maddox 35 FA-elig 105-0.3 0.8 -0.9
John Wockenfuss 36 32-0.4
Jeff Stone 24 88-0.6
Tim Corcoran 32 FA-elig 103-0.8 0.2 -0.4
Steve Jeltz 26 89-1.1

Key additions (new vs 1984)

PlayerfWAR
Mike Schmidt5.2
Kevin Gross3.6
John Denny2.8
Juan Samuel2.7
Von Hayes2.6
Glenn Wilson2.6

Key subtractions (gone from 1984)

Player1984 fWAR

Current & Historical Payroll

1985 payroll
$10.5M

What the front office was committed to as of 1985, 1985–1991. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (14)

PlayerAgeSvc1985198619871988198919901991
Mike Schmidt3513.000$2.1M$2.1M$2.1M$2.2MFREE AGENT
John Denny3211.000$1.1MFREE AGENT
Steve Carlton4020.000$1.1M$500kFREE AGENT
Garry Maddox3513.000$820kFREE AGENT
Kent Tekulve3811.000$789k$890k$925k$850kFREE AGENT
Shane Rawley297.000$700k$800k$800k$900kFREE AGENT
Jerry Koosman4218.000$600kFREE AGENT
Greg Gross3212.000$350k$375k$420k$320kFREE AGENT
Larry Andersen3210.000$250k$190kFREE AGENT
Tim Corcoran328.000$220kFREE AGENT
Bo Diaz328.000$209kFREE AGENT
Dave Stewart287.000$44k$47kFREE AGENT
Al Holland328.000$33kFREE AGENT
Alan Knicely306.000$8kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (5)

PlayerAgeSvc1985198619871988198919901991
Von Hayes264.000$500kARB 3FREE AGENT
Ozzie Virgil Jr.285.000$350kFREE AGENT
Glenn Wilson263.000$260kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Aguayo265.000$237kFREE AGENT
Dave Rucker274.000$220kARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (18)

PlayerAgeSvc1985198619871988198919901991
Juan Samuel242.000$240kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Charles Hudson262.000$192kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kevin Gross242.000$140kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tom Foley252.000$61kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Don Carman252.000ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rocky Childress23
Darren Daulton232.000ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kiko Garcia31
Steve Jeltz262.000ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
John Russell241.000Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rick Schu231.000Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dave Shipanoff25
Jeff Stone242.000ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rick Surhoff22
Derrel Thomas34
Freddie Toliver241.000Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
John Wockenfuss36
Pat Zachry33

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Phillies 1985; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3