RRosternomics
𝕏

Phillies PHI

‹ ›

GM: Ruben Amaro

Overview

CONTEND → steady
expensive & winning · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.86× league · TAB +6.6
+6.6TAB — talent above budget8th/30
+12.3WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)5th/30
11.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars2nd/30
-5.8dead WAR — sub-replacement drag20th/30
24%dead money %8th/30
0.630win %1st/30
48.3roster fWAR4th/30
-60surplus $M (value vs cost)27th/30
$178Mpayroll $M2nd/30

2011: made playoffs · 102–60. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFShane Victorino 130GJohn Mayberry Jr. 32GMichael Martinez 12G
LFRaul Ibanez 134GJohn Mayberry Jr. 21GBen Francisco 14G
RFHunter Pence 153GBen Francisco 55GDomonic Brown 52G
SSJimmy Rollins 138GWilson Valdez 25GMichael Martinez 13G
2BChase Utley 100GWilson Valdez 45GPete Orr 29G
3BPlacido Polanco 118GMichael Martinez 26GWilson Valdez 24G
1BRyan Howard 149GJohn Mayberry Jr. 18GRoss Gload 10G
STARTERSRoy Halladay 8.5WARCliff Lee 7.5WARCole Hamels 5.1WARRoy Oswalt 2.7WARVance Worley 2.5WAR
CCarlos Ruiz 128GBrian Schneider 40GDane Sardinha 15G
DHBen Francisco 1GRoss Gload 1GRyan Howard 1G
BULLPEN★ Ryan Madson 32svAntonio Bastardo 17hMichael Stutes 13hBrad Lidge 8hDavid Herndon 4hJose Contreras 4hDanys Baez 0hMichael Schwimer 0h
CCarlos Ruiz 128 · Brian Schneider 40 · Dane Sardinha 15
1BRyan Howard 149 · John Mayberry Jr. 18 · Ross Gload 10
2BChase Utley 100 · Wilson Valdez 45 · Pete Orr 29
3BPlacido Polanco 118 · Michael Martinez 26 · Wilson Valdez 24
SSJimmy Rollins 138 · Wilson Valdez 25 · Michael Martinez 13
LFRaul Ibanez 134 · John Mayberry Jr. 21 · Ben Francisco 14
CFShane Victorino 130 · John Mayberry Jr. 32 · Michael Martinez 12
RFHunter Pence 153 · Ben Francisco 55 · Domonic Brown 52
DHBen Francisco 1 · Ross Gload 1 · Ryan Howard 1
SPRoy Halladay 8.5 · Cliff Lee 7.5 · Cole Hamels 5.1 · Roy Oswalt 2.7 · Vance Worley 2.5
BP★ Ryan Madson 32 · Antonio Bastardo 17 · Michael Stutes 13 · Brad Lidge 8 · David Herndon 4 · Jose Contreras 4 · Danys Baez 0 · Michael Schwimer 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2011 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Roy Halladay 34 FA-elig 328.5 20.0 +0.8
Cliff Lee 32 FA-elig 357.5 11.0 +7.4
Shane Victorino 30 FA-elig 1325.6 7.5 +6.3
Cole Hamels 27 arb 335.1 9.5 +3.1
Chase Utley 32 FA-elig 1034.0 15.3 -5.4
Jimmy Rollins 32 FA-elig 1423.6 8.5 +0.3
Roy Oswalt 33 FA-elig 242.7 16.0 -9.4
Vance Worley 23 pre-arb 252.5 0.4 +5.7
Hunter Pence↔ HOU 28 arb 542.4 2.4 +3.4
John Mayberry Jr. 27 pre-arb 1042.3 0.4 +5.1
Placido Polanco 35 FA-elig 1222.2 5.4 +0.1
Ryan Madson 30 FA-elig 621.8 4.8 -0.4
Ryan Howard 31 FA-elig 1521.6 20.0 -16.1
Carlos Ruiz 32 arb 1321.1 2.8 -0.1
Antonio Bastardo 25 pre-arb 641.0 0.4 +2.1
Joe Blanton 30 FA-elig 110.6 10.5 -9.0
Kyle Kendrick 26 arb 350.3 2.5 -1.6
Brad Lidge 34 FA-elig 250.3 12.0 -11.2
Michael Stutes 24 pre-arb 570.3 0.4 +0.3
Jose Contreras 39 FA-elig 170.2 2.5 -2.0
Dane Sardinha 32 – 150.1 – –
Juan Pablo Perez 32 – 80.1 – –
Joe Savery 25 pre-arb 40.1 0.4 -0.2
Erik Kratz 31 pre-arb 20.0 0.4 -0.3
J.C. Romero↔ COL 35 FA-elig 240.0 0.9 -0.8
Scott Mathieson 27 – 4-0.0 – –
Justin De Fratus 23 – 5-0.0 0.4 -0.4
Brandon Moss 27 pre-arb 5-0.1 0.4 -0.6
Drew Carpenter↔ SDP 26 pre-arb 6-0.1 0.2 -0.4
Michael Schwimer 25 – 12-0.1 0.4 -0.6
Mike Zagurski 28 arb 4-0.1 0.4 -0.6
Pete Orr 32 FA-elig 46-0.2 0.6 -1.1
Wilson Valdez 33 FA-elig 99-0.2 0.6 -1.1
Domonic Brown 23 pre-arb 56-0.3 0.4 -1.0
Ben Francisco 29 arb 100-0.3 1.2 -1.8
John Bowker↔ PIT 27 arb 12-0.3 0.2 -0.9
Michael Martinez 28 pre-arb 88-0.3 0.4 -1.2
Danys Baez 33 FA-elig 29-0.4 2.8 -3.7
Ross Gload 35 FA-elig 93-0.4 1.6 -2.6
Brian Schneider 34 FA-elig 41-0.6 1.6 -3.0
David Herndon 25 pre-arb 45-0.7 0.4 -2.1
Raul Ibanez 39 FA-elig 144-1.9 12.2 -16.9

Key additions (new vs 2010)

PlayerfWAR
Cliff Lee7.5
Hunter Pence2.4
Michael Stutes0.3
Juan Pablo Perez0.1
Joe Savery0.1
Erik Kratz0.0

Key subtractions (gone from 2010)

Player2010 fWAR
Jayson Werth5.1
Nelson Figueroa0.3
Cody Ransom0.2
Jamie Moyer0.2
Chad Durbin0.2
J.A. Happ0.1

Current & Historical Payroll

2011 payroll
$177.8M

What the front office was committed to as of 2011, 2011–2017. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (16)

PlayerAgeSvc2011201220132014201520162017
Roy Halladay3411.047$20.0M$20.0M$20.0MFREE AGENT
Ryan Howard3110.145$20.0M$20.0M$20.0M$25.0M$25.0M$25.0MFREE AGENT
Roy Oswalt339.149$16.0MFREE AGENT
Chase Utley327.027$15.3M$15.0M$15.0M$15.0M$10.2MFREE AGENT
Raul Ibanez3913.020$12.2MFREE AGENT
Brad Lidge349.043$12.0MFREE AGENT
Cliff Lee327.100$11.0M$21.5M$25.0M$25.0MFREE AGENT
Joe Blanton306.016$10.5M$7.1MFREE AGENT
Jimmy Rollins3210.015$8.5M$11.0M$11.0M$11.0MFREE AGENT
Placido Polanco3512.064$5.4M$6.2MFREE AGENT
Ryan Madson307.027$4.8MFREE AGENT
Danys Baez339.102$2.8MFREE AGENT
Jose Contreras397.134$2.5M$2.5MFREE AGENT
Brian Schneider349.125$1.6M$800kFREE AGENT
Ross Gload357.055$1.6MFREE AGENT
J.C. Romero3510.055$900kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (9)

PlayerAgeSvc2011201220132014201520162017
Cole Hamels274.143$9.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Shane Victorino305.092$7.5MFREE AGENT
Carlos Ruiz324.069$2.8MARB 3FREE AGENT
Hunter Pence283.156$2.4MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ben Francisco293.049$1.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pete Orr324.016$600kARB 3FREE AGENT
Wilson Valdez333.096$560kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Zagurski283.070$414kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Juan Pablo Perez325.000—FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (17)

PlayerAgeSvc2011201220132014201520162017
Kyle Kendrick262.159$2.5MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Herndon252.158$425kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Antonio Bastardo251.054$419kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Moss272.028$414kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
John Mayberry Jr.272.000$414kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Stutes242.114$414kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Erik Kratz310.023$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe Savery250.104$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Domonic Brown230.068$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Vance Worley230.032$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Martinez280.000$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Schwimer250.000$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin De Fratus230.000$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Drew Carpenter260.028$207kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
John Bowker271.133$171kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dane Sardinha32–—
Scott Mathieson27–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Phillies 2011; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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Not enough history to chart.

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Pick a wider year range.

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payroll %{x:.2f}× lg · TAB %{y:+.1f}
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slot %{x} · %{customdata[1]:.1f} WAR
%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'PHI',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});