RRosternomics
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Phillies PHI

‹ ›

President of baseball ops: Dave Dombrowski · GM: Sam Fuld

Overview

CONTEND ↗ rising
expensive & winning · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.65× league · TAB +5.1
+5.1TAB — talent above budget13th/30
-1.2WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)14th/30
8.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars8th/30
-2.0dead WAR — sub-replacement drag2nd/30
30%dead money %14th/30
0.537win %11th/30
45.3roster fWAR8th/30
-70surplus $M (value vs cost)26th/30
$236Mpayroll $M4th/30

2022: won pennant · 87–75. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFMatt Vierling 61GBrandon Marsh 59GOdúbel Herrera 48G
LFKyle Schwarber 139GMatt Vierling 30GOdúbel Herrera 11G
RFNick Castellanos 121GMatt Vierling 37GDalton Guthrie 12G
SSBryson Stott 83GDidi Gregorius 61GEdmundo Sosa 42G
2BJean Segura 97GBryson Stott 47GYairo Muñoz 14G
3BAlec Bohm 135GEdmundo Sosa 22GJohan Camargo 13G
1BRhys Hoskins 151GAlec Bohm 10GDarick Hall 7G
STARTERSAaron Nola 6.3WARZack Wheeler 4.2WARRanger Suarez 2.3WARKyle Gibson 1.8WARZach Eflin 1.4WAR
CJ.T. Realmuto 133GGarrett Stubbs 41GDonny Sands 1G
DHBryce Harper 90GDarick Hall 31GKyle Schwarber 15G
BULLPEN★ David Robertson 20svJosé Alvarado 22hSeranthony Domínguez 15hBrad Hand 13hAndrew Bellatti 9hConnor Brogdon 6hNick Nelson 3hCorey Knebel 2h
CJ.T. Realmuto 133 · Garrett Stubbs 41 · Donny Sands 1
1BRhys Hoskins 151 · Alec Bohm 10 · Darick Hall 7
2BJean Segura 97 · Bryson Stott 47 · Yairo Muñoz 14
3BAlec Bohm 135 · Edmundo Sosa 22 · Johan Camargo 13
SSBryson Stott 83 · Didi Gregorius 61 · Edmundo Sosa 42
LFKyle Schwarber 139 · Matt Vierling 30 · Odúbel Herrera 11
CFMatt Vierling 61 · Brandon Marsh 59 · Odúbel Herrera 48
RFNick Castellanos 121 · Matt Vierling 37 · Dalton Guthrie 12
DHBryce Harper 90 · Darick Hall 31 · Kyle Schwarber 15
SPAaron Nola 6.3 · Zack Wheeler 4.2 · Ranger Suarez 2.3 · Kyle Gibson 1.8 · Zach Eflin 1.4
BP★ David Robertson 20 · José Alvarado 22 · Seranthony Domínguez 15 · Brad Hand 13 · Andrew Bellatti 9 · Connor Brogdon 6 · Nick Nelson 3 · Corey Knebel 2

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2022 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
J.T. Realmuto 31 FA-elig 1396.6 23.9 +0.5
Aaron Nola 29 FA-elig 326.3 15.5 +7.6
Zack Wheeler 32 FA-elig 264.2 26.0 -10.8
Bryce Harper 29 FA-elig 992.6 27.5 -17.8
Rhys Hoskins 29 arb 1562.4 7.7 +1.1
Ranger Suarez 26 pre-arb 292.3 0.7 +7.8
Kyle Schwarber 29 FA-elig 1552.2 19.0 -10.9
Jean Segura 32 FA-elig 982.1 14.8 -7.1
Kyle Gibson 34 FA-elig 311.8 8.0 -1.2
José Alvarado 27 arb 591.6 1.9 +4.1
Alec Bohm 25 pre-arb 1521.4 0.7 +4.5
Zach Eflin 28 FA-elig 201.4 5.5 -0.5
Bryson Stott 24 – 1271.3 0.7 +4.1
Edmundo Sosa↔ STL 26 pre-arb 251.2 0.1 +4.3
Noah Syndergaard↔ ANA 29 FA-elig 101.1 8.4 -4.5
Nick Nelson 26 pre-arb 471.0 0.7 +2.9
Andrew Bellatti 30 pre-arb 591.0 0.7 +3.0
Seranthony Domínguez 27 arb 541.0 0.7 +2.9
Brandon Marsh↔ ANA 24 pre-arb 410.7 0.1 +2.5
Bailey Falter 25 pre-arb 200.6 0.3 +1.9
Connor Brogdon 27 pre-arb 470.6 0.6 +1.4
Nick Maton 25 pre-arb 350.6 0.4 +1.6
Odúbel Herrera 30 FA-elig 620.5 1.8 +0.2
Darick Hall 26 – 420.5 0.2 +1.6
Garrett Stubbs 29 pre-arb 500.5 0.7 +1.1
Dalton Guthrie 26 – 140.3 0.1 +0.9
Brad Hand 32 FA-elig 550.3 6.0 -4.9
David Robertson↔ CHC 37 FA-elig 220.3 1.3 -0.4
Matt Vierling 25 pre-arb 1170.2 0.6 +0.3
Johan Camargo 28 arb 520.2 1.4 -0.6
James Norwood 28 – 200.1 0.3 +0.1
Mark Appel 30 – 60.1 0.1 +0.2
Bradley Zimmer↔ TOR 29 – 90.1 0.1 +0.2
Michael Plassmeyer 25 – 20.1 0.0 +0.3
Nick Duron 26 – 10.0 0.0 +0.1
Chris Devenski↔ ARI 31 arb 30.0 0.0 -0.0
Scott Kingery 28 arb 10.0 6.2 -6.2
Cristopher Sánchez 25 pre-arb 15-0.0 0.3 -0.3
Corey Knebel 30 FA-elig 46-0.0 10.0 -10.1
Vinny Nittoli 31 pre-arb 2-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Óscar Mercado↔ CLE 27 – 1-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Michael Kelly 29 – 4-0.0 0.0 -0.2
Damon Jones 27 pre-arb 4-0.0 0.5 -0.6
Donny Sands 26 – 3-0.0 0.1 -0.3
Sam Coonrod 29 pre-arb 12-0.0 0.7 -0.8
Símon Muzziotti 23 – 9-0.1 0.2 -0.4
JoJo Romero↔ STL 25 – 2-0.1 0.0 -0.3
Bubby Rossman 30 – 1-0.1 0.0 -0.3
Roman Quinn↔ TBR 29 – 23-0.1 0.2 -0.4
Yairo Muñoz 27 pre-arb 29-0.1 0.3 -0.5
Tyler Cyr↔ OAK 29 – 1-0.1 0.0 -0.3
Francisco Morales 22 – 3-0.2 0.0 -0.7
Nick Castellanos 30 FA-elig 136-0.2 20.0 -20.7
Jeurys Familia↔ BOS 32 FA-elig 38-0.2 4.8 -5.5
Mickey Moniak↔ ANA 24 – 18-0.3 0.2 -1.4
Didi Gregorius 32 FA-elig 63-0.4 15.2 -16.8

Key additions (new vs 2021)

PlayerfWAR
Kyle Schwarber2.2
Bryson Stott1.3
Edmundo Sosa1.2
Noah Syndergaard1.1
Nick Nelson1.0
Andrew Bellatti1.0

Key subtractions (gone from 2021)

Player2021 fWAR
Brad Miller0.7
Travis Jankowski0.7
Spencer Howard0.5
Héctor Neris0.5
Ronald Torreyes0.3
Archie Bradley0.2

Current & Historical Payroll

2022 payroll
$235.6M
2023 guaranteed
$27.5M

What the front office was committed to as of 2022, 2022–2028. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2022; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (15)

PlayerAgeSvc2022202320242025202620272028
Bryce Harper299.159$27.5M$27.5M$27.5M$27.5M$27.5M$27.5M$27.5M
Zack Wheeler328.098$26.0MFREE AGENT
J.T. Realmuto317.038$23.9MFREE AGENT
Nick Castellanos308.029$20.0MFREE AGENT
Kyle Schwarber296.086$19.0MFREE AGENT
Aaron Nola296.076$15.5MFREE AGENT
Didi Gregorius3210.000$15.2MFREE AGENT
Jean Segura329.065$14.8MFREE AGENT
Corey Knebel306.151$10.0MFREE AGENT
Noah Syndergaard296.149$8.4MFREE AGENT
Kyle Gibson348.039$8.0MFREE AGENT
Brad Hand328.092$6.0MFREE AGENT
Jeurys Familia3210.000$4.8MFREE AGENT
Odúbel Herrera307.000$1.8MFREE AGENT
David Robertson3712.104$1.3MFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (9)

PlayerAgeSvc2022202320242025202620272028
Rhys Hoskins294.053$7.7MARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Kingery283.047$6.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zach Eflin285.018$5.5MFREE AGENT
José Alvarado274.088$1.9MARB 3FREE AGENT
Johan Camargo283.161$1.4MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Seranthony Domínguez273.131$725kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Roman Quinn293.088$153kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bradley Zimmer293.119$79kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Devenski315.164$41kFREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (32)

PlayerAgeSvc2022202320242025202620272028
Ranger Suarez262.112$730kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alec Bohm251.106$715kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Nelson261.049$706kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Garrett Stubbs291.104$704kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andrew Bellatti300.083$673kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bryson Stott240.000$669kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sam Coonrod292.078$662kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Connor Brogdon271.081$636kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Vierling250.043$587kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Damon Jones270.031$454kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Maton250.088$450kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bailey Falter250.119$348kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cristopher Sánchez250.032$281kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
James Norwood281.089$279kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yairo Muñoz272.098$265kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Darick Hall260.000$235kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Símon Muzziotti23–$212k
Mickey Moniak240.063$174kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Edmundo Sosa261.140$146kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Marsh240.078$141kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dalton Guthrie260.000$119kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Donny Sands26–$104k
Mark Appel30–$100k
JoJo Romero251.117$50kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Kelly290.000$49kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Francisco Morales22–$38k
Vinny Nittoli310.006$38kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Plassmeyer250.000$15kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Cyr290.000$9kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Duron26–$8k
Óscar Mercado272.114$5kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bubby Rossman30–$4k

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Phillies 2022; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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Pick a wider year range.

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slot %{x} · %{customdata[1]:.1f} WAR
%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'PHI',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});