RRosternomics
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Phillies PHI

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President of baseball ops: Dave Dombrowski · GM: Sam Fuld

Overview

CONTEND ↗ rising
expensive & winning · year 3 in this regime · payroll 1.51× league · TAB +8.5
+8.5TAB — talent above budget7th/30
+7.9WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)8th/30
11.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars2nd/30
-3.5dead WAR — sub-replacement drag7th/30
25%dead money %10th/30
0.586win %2nd/30
47.6roster fWAR3rd/30
-45surplus $M (value vs cost)18th/30
$243Mpayroll $M7th/30

2024: made playoffs · 95–67. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFJohan Rojas 116GBrandon Marsh 53GCal Stevenson 10G
LFBrandon Marsh 97GAustin Hays 74GWhit Merrifield 25G
RFNick Castellanos 157GBrandon Marsh 8GCal Stevenson 4G
SSTrea Turner 118GEdmundo Sosa 48GBryson Stott 14G
2BBryson Stott 137GEdmundo Sosa 20GKody Clemens 8G
3BAlec Bohm 128GEdmundo Sosa 23GKody Clemens 11G
1BBryce Harper 141GKody Clemens 15GAlec Bohm 15G
STARTERSZack Wheeler 5.4WARCristopher Sánchez 4.7WARRanger Suarez 3.4WARAaron Nola 3.1WARSpencer Turnbull 0.7WAR
CJ.T. Realmuto 99GGarrett Stubbs 52GRafael Marchán 17G
DHKyle Schwarber 144GNick Castellanos 5GAlec Bohm 3G
BULLPEN★ Carlos Estévez 26svJeff Hoffman 21hMatt Strahm 18hOrion Kerkering 14hJosé Alvarado 10hTanner Banks 8hYunior Marte 2hJosé Ruiz 0h
CJ.T. Realmuto 99 · Garrett Stubbs 52 · Rafael Marchán 17
1BBryce Harper 141 · Kody Clemens 15 · Alec Bohm 15
2BBryson Stott 137 · Edmundo Sosa 20 · Kody Clemens 8
3BAlec Bohm 128 · Edmundo Sosa 23 · Kody Clemens 11
SSTrea Turner 118 · Edmundo Sosa 48 · Bryson Stott 14
LFBrandon Marsh 97 · Austin Hays 74 · Whit Merrifield 25
CFJohan Rojas 116 · Brandon Marsh 53 · Cal Stevenson 10
RFNick Castellanos 157 · Brandon Marsh 8 · Cal Stevenson 4
DHKyle Schwarber 144 · Nick Castellanos 5 · Alec Bohm 3
SPZack Wheeler 5.4 · Cristopher Sánchez 4.7 · Ranger Suarez 3.4 · Aaron Nola 3.1 · Spencer Turnbull 0.7
BP★ Carlos Estévez 26 · Jeff Hoffman 21 · Matt Strahm 18 · Orion Kerkering 14 · José Alvarado 10 · Tanner Banks 8 · Yunior Marte 2 · José Ruiz 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2024 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Zack Wheeler 34 FA-elig 325.4 23.5 -1.0
Bryce Harper 31 FA-elig 1455.1 27.5 -6.3
Cristopher Sánchez 27 arb 314.7 0.8 +18.6
Trea Turner 31 FA-elig 1213.9 27.3 -11.2
Alec Bohm 27 arb 1433.5 4.0 +10.4
Ranger Suarez 28 FA-elig 273.4 5.0 +9.3
Kyle Schwarber 31 FA-elig 1503.3 20.0 -6.1
Aaron Nola 31 FA-elig 333.1 24.6 -11.6
Brandon Marsh 26 arb 1352.3 0.8 +8.7
Matt Strahm 32 FA-elig 662.1 7.5 +1.1
Jeff Hoffman 31 FA-elig 682.0 2.2 +6.3
J.T. Realmuto 33 FA-elig 992.0 23.9 -15.7
Edmundo Sosa 28 FA-elig 901.9 1.7 +6.1
Bryson Stott 26 pre-arb 1481.8 0.8 +6.7
Orion Kerkering 23 pre-arb 641.5 0.7 +5.4
Johan Rojas 23 pre-arb 1201.1 0.7 +3.9
Spencer Turnbull 31 FA-elig 170.7 2.0 +0.7
José Alvarado 29 FA-elig 660.6 9.0 -6.5
Rafael Marchán 25 arb 170.6 0.8 +1.7
Gregory Soto↔ BAL 29 arb 430.4 3.3 -1.7
Weston Wilson 29 pre-arb 410.3 0.7 +0.6
Nick Castellanos 32 FA-elig 1620.2 20.0 -19.0
Tanner Banks↔ CHW 32 pre-arb 220.2 0.3 +0.7
Carlos Estévez↔ ANA 31 FA-elig 200.2 2.5 -1.6
Garrett Stubbs 31 arb 560.2 0.8 -0.1
Seranthony Domínguez↔ BAL 29 FA-elig 380.1 2.6 -1.9
Nick Nelson 28 pre-arb 40.1 0.1 +0.5
David Dahl 30 – 190.1 0.3 +0.3
José Ruiz 29 arb 520.1 0.8 -0.5
Cal Stevenson 27 pre-arb 180.1 0.1 +0.2
Kolby Allard 26 FA-elig 70.1 1.0 -0.7
Cristian Pache↔ BAL 25 arb 500.1 0.4 -0.2
Max Lazar 25 – 110.0 0.1 +0.1
Buddy Kennedy↔ DET 25 pre-arb 80.0 0.4 -0.3
Kody Clemens 28 pre-arb 440.0 0.7 -0.6
Luis Ortiz 28 FA-elig 10.0 0.7 -0.7
Tyler Gilbert 30 pre-arb 6-0.0 0.1 -0.2
Tyler Phillips 26 – 8-0.1 0.2 -0.5
Austin Hays↔ BAL 28 FA-elig 22-0.1 1.6 -2.0
Aramis Garcia 31 arb 3-0.1 0.0 -0.5
Ricardo Pinto 30 – 6-0.1 0.1 -0.7
Seth Johnson 25 – 1-0.1 0.0 -0.6
Yunior Marte 29 pre-arb 23-0.3 0.8 -1.8
Whit Merrifield↔ ATL 35 FA-elig 53-0.3 3.9 -5.2
Connor Brogdon↔ LAD 29 arb 3-0.4 0.6 -2.4
Michael Mercado 25 – 5-0.7 0.1 -3.2
Taijuan Walker 31 FA-elig 19-1.2 18.0 -22.8

Key additions (new vs 2023)

PlayerfWAR
Spencer Turnbull0.7
Rafael Marchán0.6
Tanner Banks0.2
Carlos Estévez0.2
David Dahl0.1
José Ruiz0.1

Key subtractions (gone from 2023)

Player2023 fWAR
Craig Kimbrel1.1
Bailey Falter0.5
Andrew Vasquez0.2
Drew Ellis0.1
Dalton Guthrie0.1
Andrew Bellatti0.1

Current & Historical Payroll

2024 payroll
$243.1M
2025 guaranteed
$84.1M

What the front office was committed to as of 2024, 2024–2030. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2024; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (14)

PlayerAgeSvc2024202520262027202820292030
Bryce Harper3111.159$27.5M$27.5M$27.5M$27.5M$27.5M$23.5M$23.5M
Trea Turner317.135$27.3M$27.3M$27.3M$27.3M$27.3M$27.3M$27.3M
Aaron Nola318.076$24.6M$24.6M$24.6M$24.6M$24.6M$24.6M$24.6M
J.T. Realmuto339.038$23.9MFREE AGENT
Zack Wheeler3410.098$23.5MFREE AGENT
Nick Castellanos3210.029$20.0MFREE AGENT
Kyle Schwarber318.086$20.0MFREE AGENT
Taijuan Walker319.142$18.0MFREE AGENT
José Alvarado296.088$9.0M$4.7M$9.0MCLUBFREE AGENT
Matt Strahm327.064$7.5MFREE AGENT
Whit Merrifield357.101$3.9MFREE AGENT
Carlos Estévez317.022$2.5MFREE AGENT
Luis Ortiz286.000$744kFREE AGENT
David Dahl308.000$255kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (13)

PlayerAgeSvc2024202520262027202820292030
Ranger Suarez284.112$5.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Alec Bohm273.106$4.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gregory Soto294.102$3.3MARB 3FREE AGENT
Seranthony Domínguez295.131$2.6MFREE AGENT
Jeff Hoffman315.084$2.2MFREE AGENT
Spencer Turnbull315.020$2.0MFREE AGENT
Edmundo Sosa283.140$1.7MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Austin Hays284.057$1.6MARB 3FREE AGENT
Kolby Allard263.162$1.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Garrett Stubbs313.120$850kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
José Ruiz293.170$801kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ricardo Pinto305.087$133kFREE AGENT
Aramis Garcia313.036$32kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (20)

PlayerAgeSvc2024202520262027202820292030
Bryson Stott262.000$768kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Marsh262.078$766kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cristopher Sánchez271.083$754kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yunior Marte291.040$752kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rafael Marchán251.075$750kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Johan Rojas230.080$745kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Orion Kerkering230.010$742kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kody Clemens281.035$740kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Weston Wilson290.020$740kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Connor Brogdon292.139$571kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cristian Pache252.031$432kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Buddy Kennedy250.096$423kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tanner Banks321.092$264kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Phillips260.000$183kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Max Lazar250.000$139kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cal Stevenson270.036$131kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Mercado250.000$119kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Gilbert301.032$107kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Nelson282.085$72kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Seth Johnson250.000$4kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Phillies 2024; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'PHI',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});