RRosternomics
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Padres SDP

‹ ›

GM: AJ Preller

Overview

CONTEND ↗ rising
expensive & winning · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.13× league · TAB +23.7
+23.7TAB — talent above budget
+16.5WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)
5.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars1st/30
-2.0dead WAR — sub-replacement drag4th/30
21%dead money %4th/30
0.617win %3rd/30
22.0roster fWAR2nd/30
+28surplus $M (value vs cost)3rd/30
$133Mpayroll $M11th/30

2020: made playoffs · 37–23. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFTrent Grisham 59GJorge Mateo 1GJurickson Profar 1G
LFJurickson Profar 36GTommy Pham 18GGreg Allen 12G
RFWil Myers 52GJosh Naylor 4GJorge Mateo 3G
SSFernando Tatis Jr. 57GJake Cronenworth 11G
2BJake Cronenworth 38GJurickson Profar 17GGreg Garcia 11G
3BManny Machado 56GGreg Garcia 10GJake Cronenworth 1G
1BMitch Moreland 38GEric Hosmer 32GJake Cronenworth 10G
STARTERSDinelson Lamet 2.5WARZach Davies 1.4WARMike Clevinger 0.7WARGarrett Richards 0.7WARChris Paddack 0.4WAR
CAustin Nola 44GJason Castro 26GFrancisco Mejía 16G
DHTommy Pham 13GGreg Garcia 9GJosh Naylor 8G
BULLPEN★ Trevor Rosenthal 11svDrew Pomeranz 9hEmilio Pagán 7hCraig Stammen 6hMatt Strahm 5hTim Hill 5hDan Altavilla 3hPierce Johnson 1h
CAustin Nola 44 · Jason Castro 26 · Francisco Mejía 16
1BMitch Moreland 38 · Eric Hosmer 32 · Jake Cronenworth 10
2BJake Cronenworth 38 · Jurickson Profar 17 · Greg Garcia 11
3BManny Machado 56 · Greg Garcia 10 · Jake Cronenworth 1
SSFernando Tatis Jr. 57 · Jake Cronenworth 11
LFJurickson Profar 36 · Tommy Pham 18 · Greg Allen 12
CFTrent Grisham 59 · Jorge Mateo 1 · Jurickson Profar 1
RFWil Myers 52 · Josh Naylor 4 · Jorge Mateo 3
DHTommy Pham 13 · Greg Garcia 9 · Josh Naylor 8
SPDinelson Lamet 2.5 · Zach Davies 1.4 · Mike Clevinger 0.7 · Garrett Richards 0.7 · Chris Paddack 0.4
BP★ Trevor Rosenthal 11 · Drew Pomeranz 9 · Emilio Pagán 7 · Craig Stammen 6 · Matt Strahm 5 · Tim Hill 5 · Dan Altavilla 3 · Pierce Johnson 1

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2020 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Fernando Tatis Jr. 21 – 593.3 0.2 +24.1
Manny Machado 27 FA-elig 602.7 32.0 -12.5
Dinelson Lamet 27 arb 122.5 1.3 +16.7
Trent Grisham 23 pre-arb 592.4 0.2 +17.1
Wil Myers 29 FA-elig 552.2 22.5 -6.3
Jake Cronenworth 26 – 541.9 0.2 +13.8
Zach Davies 27 arb 121.4 5.2 +4.8
Jurickson Profar 27 FA-elig 560.9 5.7 +1.2
Drew Pomeranz 31 FA-elig 200.8 6.0 -0.4
Mike Clevinger↔ CLE 29 arb 40.7 2.0 +3.2
Garrett Richards 32 FA-elig 140.7 8.5 -3.2
Eric Hosmer 30 FA-elig 380.7 21.0 -15.9
Trevor Rosenthal↔ KCR 30 FA-elig 90.6 0.2 +4.4
Austin Nola↔ SEA 30 pre-arb 190.5 0.0 +3.3
Chris Paddack 24 pre-arb 120.4 0.2 +2.5
Ty France↔ SEA 25 – 200.3 0.0 +2.3
Pierce Johnson 29 arb 240.3 2.0 +0.3
Craig Stammen 36 FA-elig 240.3 4.0 -1.8
Cal Quantrill↔ CLE 25 – 100.2 0.1 +1.6
Dan Altavilla↔ SEA 27 pre-arb 90.2 0.0 +1.4
Michel Baez 24 pre-arb 30.2 0.0 +1.2
Joey Lucchesi 27 pre-arb 30.2 0.1 +1.1
Josh Naylor↔ CLE 23 – 180.1 0.0 +1.0
Luis Campusano 21 – 10.1 0.1 +0.8
Jorge Ona 23 – 50.1 0.0 +0.8
Javy Guerra 24 pre-arb 140.1 0.2 +0.6
Greg Allen↔ CLE 27 pre-arb 10.1 0.0 +0.7
Emilio Pagán 29 pre-arb 220.0 0.2 +0.1
Tim Hill 30 pre-arb 230.0 0.2 -0.1
Taylor Williams↔ SEA 28 pre-arb 10.0 0.0 +0.1
David Bednar 25 pre-arb 40.0 0.1 +0.1
Austin Hedges↔ CLE 27 arb 290.0 2.5 -2.4
Matt Strahm 28 arb 190.0 1.4 -1.4
Austin Adams 29 pre-arb 30.0 0.1 -0.1
Kirby Yates 33 FA-elig 6-0.0 7.1 -7.3
Jason Castro↔ ANA 33 FA-elig 9-0.0 2.3 -2.6
Luis Patiño 20 – 11-0.1 0.1 -0.6
Tommy Pham 32 arb 31-0.1 2.9 -3.4
Luis Torrens↔ SEA 24 – 7-0.1 0.0 -0.6
Luis Perdomo 27 arb 10-0.1 0.9 -1.5
Greg Garcia 30 FA-elig 35-0.1 1.5 -2.4
Jorge Mateo 25 – 22-0.1 0.2 -1.2
Adrian Morejon 21 pre-arb 9-0.1 0.1 -1.1
Abraham Almonte 31 arb 7-0.2 0.0 -1.2
Mitch Moreland↔ BOS 34 FA-elig 20-0.2 1.2 -2.9
Edward Olivares↔ KCR 24 – 13-0.4 0.0 -3.1
Francisco Mejía 24 pre-arb 17-0.4 0.2 -3.3

Key additions (new vs 2019)

PlayerfWAR
Trent Grisham2.4
Jake Cronenworth1.9
Zach Davies1.4
Jurickson Profar0.9
Drew Pomeranz0.8
Mike Clevinger0.7

Key subtractions (gone from 2019)

Player2019 fWAR
Eric Lauer2.2
Hunter Renfroe1.8
Manuel Margot1.6
Franmil Reyes1.2
Robbie Erlin0.5
Gerardo Reyes0.3

Current & Historical Payroll

2020 payroll
$133.1M
2021 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2020, 2020–2026. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2020; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (11)

PlayerAgeSvc2020202120222023202420252026
Manny Machado277.056$32.0MFREE AGENT
Wil Myers296.104$22.5MFREE AGENT
Eric Hosmer308.146$21.0MFREE AGENT
Garrett Richards327.148$8.5MFREE AGENT
Drew Pomeranz317.013$6.0MFREE AGENT
Craig Stammen368.160$4.0MFREE AGENT
Jason Castro339.104$2.3MFREE AGENT
Pierce Johnson296.137$2.0MFREE AGENT
Mitch Moreland3410.000$1.2MFREE AGENT
Jorge Mateo257.000$209kFREE AGENT
Trevor Rosenthal306.001$160kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (12)

PlayerAgeSvc2020202120222023202420252026
Kirby Yates335.021$7.1MFREE AGENT
Jurickson Profar275.165$5.7MFREE AGENT
Zach Davies274.020$5.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Tommy Pham324.107$2.9MARB 3FREE AGENT
Austin Hedges273.166$2.5MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Clevinger293.040$2.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Greg Garcia304.083$1.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Strahm283.064$1.4MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Perdomo273.086$950kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Javy Guerra244.145$209kARB 3FREE AGENT
Abraham Almonte314.017$41kARB 3FREE AGENT
Edward Olivares244.158$35kARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (24)

PlayerAgeSvc2020202120222023202420252026
Dinelson Lamet272.130$1.3MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Fernando Tatis Jr.211.000$219kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Emilio Pagán292.091$219kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Paddack241.000$218kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tim Hill301.112$217kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Trent Grisham230.060$210kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jake Cronenworth260.000$209kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Francisco Mejía241.060$183kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adrian Morejon210.071$128kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Patiño200.000$115kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Austin Adams291.015$92kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joey Lucchesi272.000$76kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Campusano210.000$75kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cal Quantrill250.132$68kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Bednar250.029$56kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ty France250.089$50kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dan Altavilla272.063$49kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Austin Nola300.106$47kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Naylor230.118$42kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michel Baez240.071$34kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jorge Ona230.000$34kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Torrens241.014$25kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Taylor Williams281.078$8kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Greg Allen271.099$6kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Padres 2020; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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Not enough history to chart.

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Pick a wider year range.

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slot %{x} · %{customdata[1]:.1f} WAR
%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'SDP',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});