RRosternomics
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Padres SDP

‹ ›

GM: AJ Preller

Overview

CONTEND ↗ rising
expensive & winning · year 3 in this regime · payroll 1.05× league · TAB +11.2
+11.2TAB — talent above budget4th/30
+10.5WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)5th/30
9.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars6th/30
-2.6dead WAR — sub-replacement drag2nd/30
14%dead money %1st/30
0.574win %4th/30
45.9roster fWAR5th/30
+22surplus $M (value vs cost)10th/30
$169Mpayroll $M12th/30

2024: made playoffs · 93–69. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFJackson Merrill 155GJosé Azócar 11GTyler Wade 2G
LFJurickson Profar 148GJosé Azócar 45GTyler Wade 12G
RFFernando Tatis Jr. 96GDavid Peralta 54GBryce Johnson 38G
SSHa-Seong Kim 121GNick Ahmed 68GXander Bogaerts 20G
2BXander Bogaerts 85GJake Cronenworth 70GLuis Arraez 42G
3BManny Machado 100GDonovan Solano 32GTyler Wade 31G
1BJake Cronenworth 85GLuis Arraez 69GDonovan Solano 26G
STARTERSDylan Cease 4.7WARMichael King 3.9WARMatt Waldron 1.8WARJoe Musgrove 1.4WARYu Darvish 1.1WAR
CLuis Campusano 86GKyle Higashioka 83GElias Díaz 79G
DHManny Machado 51GLuis Arraez 47GDonovan Solano 29G
BULLPEN★ Robert Suarez 36svJason Adam 31hJeremiah Estrada 16hAdrian Morejon 12hWandy Peralta 11hTanner Scott 11hYuki Matsui 9hStephen Kolek 2h
CLuis Campusano 86 · Kyle Higashioka 83 · Elias Díaz 79
1BJake Cronenworth 85 · Luis Arraez 69 · Donovan Solano 26
2BXander Bogaerts 85 · Jake Cronenworth 70 · Luis Arraez 42
3BManny Machado 100 · Donovan Solano 32 · Tyler Wade 31
SSHa-Seong Kim 121 · Nick Ahmed 68 · Xander Bogaerts 20
LFJurickson Profar 148 · José Azócar 45 · Tyler Wade 12
CFJackson Merrill 155 · José Azócar 11 · Tyler Wade 2
RFFernando Tatis Jr. 96 · David Peralta 54 · Bryce Johnson 38
DHManny Machado 51 · Luis Arraez 47 · Donovan Solano 29
SPDylan Cease 4.7 · Michael King 3.9 · Matt Waldron 1.8 · Joe Musgrove 1.4 · Yu Darvish 1.1
BP★ Robert Suarez 36 · Jason Adam 31 · Jeremiah Estrada 16 · Adrian Morejon 12 · Wandy Peralta 11 · Tanner Scott 11 · Yuki Matsui 9 · Stephen Kolek 2

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2024 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Jackson Merrill 21 pre-arb 1565.3 0.7 +21.5
Dylan Cease 28 arb 334.7 8.0 +11.8
Jurickson Profar 31 FA-elig 1584.3 1.0 +17.1
Michael King 29 arb 313.9 3.1 +13.1
Manny Machado 31 FA-elig 1523.5 17.1 -2.3
Fernando Tatis Jr. 25 arb 1023.3 11.7 +1.9
Ha-Seong Kim 28 arb 1212.6 8.0 +3.0
Jake Cronenworth 30 arb 1552.1 7.3 +1.3
Xander Bogaerts 31 FA-elig 1112.0 25.5 -17.0
Matt Waldron 27 pre-arb 271.8 0.7 +6.6
Jeremiah Estrada 25 pre-arb 621.6 0.7 +6.1
Kyle Higashioka 34 FA-elig 841.6 2.2 +4.3
Joe Musgrove 31 FA-elig 191.4 20.0 -14.3
Luis Arraez↔ MIA 27 arb 1171.2 8.3 -3.4
Adrian Morejon 25 arb 601.1 0.8 +3.8
Yu Darvish 37 FA-elig 161.1 16.0 -11.6
Robert Suarez 33 pre-arb 650.9 10.0 -6.3
Donovan Solano 36 FA-elig 960.8 0.8 +2.5
Randy Vásquez 25 pre-arb 200.7 0.7 +2.4
Tanner Scott↔ MIA 29 FA-elig 280.7 2.2 +0.7
Jason Adam↔ TBR 32 FA-elig 270.7 1.0 +1.9
David Peralta 36 FA-elig 910.5 0.7 +1.2
Eguy Rosario 24 pre-arb 300.4 0.7 +0.7
Yuki Matsui 28 pre-arb 640.3 3.2 -1.9
Jhony Brito 26 pre-arb 260.3 0.7 +0.5
Stephen Kolek 27 pre-arb 420.3 0.7 +0.4
Sean Reynolds 26 pre-arb 90.2 0.1 +0.9
Alek Jacob 26 pre-arb 70.2 0.7 +0.3
Martín Pérez↔ PIT 33 FA-elig 100.2 3.1 -2.1
Bryan Hoeing↔ MIA 27 pre-arb 180.2 0.4 +0.5
Mason McCoy 29 pre-arb 190.2 0.2 +0.6
Matthew Batten 29 pre-arb 10.1 0.7 -0.2
Elias Díaz↔ COL 33 FA-elig 120.1 0.8 -0.3
Austin Davis 31 – 70.0 0.1 -0.0
Nick Ahmed↔ LAD 34 FA-elig 20.0 0.0 +0.0
Brandon Lockridge 27 – 120.0 0.1 -0.0
José Azocar 28 pre-arb 610.0 0.7 -0.7
Carl Edwards Jr. 32 – 10.0 – –
Logan Gillaspie 27 pre-arb 9-0.0 0.7 -0.8
Bryce Johnson 28 pre-arb 47-0.0 0.3 -0.5
Pedro Avila↔ CLE 27 arb 4-0.0 0.1 -0.3
Brett Sullivan 30 pre-arb 7-0.1 0.7 -1.2
Tom Cosgrove 28 pre-arb 18-0.2 0.8 -1.6
Adam Mazur 23 pre-arb 8-0.3 0.7 -1.9
Graham Pauley 23 pre-arb 13-0.3 0.7 -2.0
Tyler Wade 29 FA-elig 90-0.3 0.8 -2.2
Enyel De Los Santos↔ CHW 28 FA-elig 44-0.3 1.1 -2.4
Wandy Peralta 32 FA-elig 46-0.5 3.4 -5.3
Luis Campusano 25 arb 91-0.5 0.8 -2.7

Key additions (new vs 2023)

PlayerfWAR
Jackson Merrill5.3
Dylan Cease4.7
Michael King3.9
Jeremiah Estrada1.6
Kyle Higashioka1.6
Luis Arraez1.2

Key subtractions (gone from 2023)

Player2023 fWAR
Juan Soto6.2
Blake Snell4.1
Seth Lugo2.9
Gary Sánchez1.8
Josh Hader1.7
Trent Grisham1.7

Current & Historical Payroll

2024 payroll
$169.2M
2025 guaranteed
$104.6M

What the front office was committed to as of 2024, 2024–2030. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2024; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (16)

PlayerAgeSvc2024202520262027202820292030
Xander Bogaerts3110.042$25.5M$25.5M$25.5M$25.5M$25.5M$25.5M$25.5M
Joe Musgrove317.063$20.0M$20.0M$20.0M$20.0MFREE AGENT
Manny Machado3111.056$17.1M$17.1M$25.1M$39.1M$39.1M$39.1M$39.1M
Yu Darvish3712.000$16.0M$21.0M$16.0M$15.0M$15.0MFREE AGENT
Jake Cronenworth304.000$7.3M$11.3M$12.3M$12.3M$12.3M$12.3M$12.3M
Wandy Peralta326.168$3.4M$4.2MOPT-OUT$4.5MOPT-OUT$4.5MPLAYERFREE AGENT
Yuki Matsui280.000$3.2M$5.5M$5.8M$6.5MOPT-OUT$7.0MPLAYERARB 3FREE AGENT
Martín Pérez3311.038$3.1MFREE AGENT
Enyel De Los Santos286.000$1.1MFREE AGENT
Jurickson Profar319.165$1.0MFREE AGENT
Jason Adam326.000$985kFREE AGENT
Donovan Solano368.081$790kFREE AGENT
Elias Díaz337.088$750kFREE AGENT
David Peralta369.120$699kFREE AGENT
Nick Ahmed349.043$24kFREE AGENT
Carl Edwards Jr.329.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (10)

PlayerAgeSvc2024202520262027202820292030
Fernando Tatis Jr.255.000$11.7MFREE AGENT
Luis Arraez274.121$8.3MARB 3FREE AGENT
Dylan Cease284.089$8.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Ha-Seong Kim283.000$8.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael King294.004$3.1MARB 3FREE AGENT
Tanner Scott295.059$2.2MFREE AGENT
Kyle Higashioka345.005$2.2MFREE AGENT
Adrian Morejon253.140$850kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Wade294.058$850kARB 3FREE AGENT
Austin Davis314.105$135kARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (23)

PlayerAgeSvc2024202520262027202820292030
Robert Suarez332.000$10.0MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Campusano251.144$755kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tom Cosgrove280.159$750kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jhony Brito260.113$746kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
José Azocar281.097$746kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eguy Rosario241.021$744kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Waldron270.054$742kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alek Jacob260.087$740kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Graham Pauley230.000$740kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Stephen Kolek270.000$740kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adam Mazur230.000$740kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matthew Batten290.130$740kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jackson Merrill210.000$740kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Randy Vásquez250.041$740kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brett Sullivan300.081$740kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeremiah Estrada250.080$740kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Logan Gillaspie270.076$740kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bryan Hoeing271.015$397kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bryce Johnson280.093$278kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mason McCoy290.025$155kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sean Reynolds260.003$135kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Lockridge270.000$72kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pedro Avila270.099$55kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Padres 2024; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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slot %{x} · %{customdata[1]:.1f} WAR
%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'SDP',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});