RRosternomics
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Mariners SEA

‹ ›

GM: Woody Woodward

Overview

CONTEND ↗ rising
expensive & winning · year 3 in this regime · payroll 1.09× league · TAB +13.9
+13.9TAB — talent above budget3rd/28
+7.0WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)8th/28
9.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars4th/28
-4.5dead WAR — sub-replacement drag11th/28
23%dead money %12th/28
0.556win %5th/28
49.2roster fWAR2nd/28
+8surplus $M (value vs cost)5th/28
$43Mpayroll $M12th/28

1997: made playoffs · 90–72. Ranks are vs the 28 teams that season.

Roster

CFKen Griffey Jr. 153GRob Ducey 12GRich Amaral 9G
LFRob Ducey 43GRich Amaral 39GLee Tinsley 34G
RFJay Buhner 154GRob Ducey 19GRich Amaral 6G
SSAlex Rodriguez 140GAlvaro Espinoza 17GAndy Sheets 9G
2BJoey Cora 142GBrent Gates 21GAlvaro Espinoza 14G
3BRuss Davis 117GBrent Gates 32GAndy Sheets 21G
1BPaul Sorrento 139GMike Blowers 49GRich Amaral 14G
STARTERSRandy Johnson 7.0WARJeff Fassero 5.0WARJamie Moyer 3.2WARKen Cloude 0.3WAROmar Olivares 0.1WAR
CDan Wilson 144GRick Wilkins 60GJohn Marzano 37G
DHEdgar Martinez 144GKen Griffey Jr. 4GRick Wilkins 2G
BULLPEN★ Heathcliff Slocumb 27svBobby Ayala 0hNorm Charlton 0hMike Timlin 0hPaul Spoljaric 0hBob Wells 0hGreg McCarthy 0hJosias Manzanillo 0h
CDan Wilson 144 · Rick Wilkins 60 · John Marzano 37
1BPaul Sorrento 139 · Mike Blowers 49 · Rich Amaral 14
2BJoey Cora 142 · Brent Gates 21 · Alvaro Espinoza 14
3BRuss Davis 117 · Brent Gates 32 · Andy Sheets 21
SSAlex Rodriguez 140 · Alvaro Espinoza 17 · Andy Sheets 9
LFRob Ducey 43 · Rich Amaral 39 · Lee Tinsley 34
CFKen Griffey Jr. 153 · Rob Ducey 12 · Rich Amaral 9
RFJay Buhner 154 · Rob Ducey 19 · Rich Amaral 6
DHEdgar Martinez 144 · Ken Griffey Jr. 4 · Rick Wilkins 2
SPRandy Johnson 7.0 · Jeff Fassero 5.0 · Jamie Moyer 3.2 · Ken Cloude 0.3 · Omar Olivares 0.1
BP★ Heathcliff Slocumb 27 · Bobby Ayala 0 · Norm Charlton 0 · Mike Timlin 0 · Paul Spoljaric 0 · Bob Wells 0 · Greg McCarthy 0 · Josias Manzanillo 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

1997 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Ken Griffey Jr. 27 FA-elig 1579.0 7.9 +1.3
Randy Johnson 33 FA-elig 307.0 6.3 +0.8
Edgar Martinez 34 FA-elig 1556.1 3.0 +3.1
Jeff Fassero 34 FA-elig 355.0 3.5 +1.6
Alex Rodriguez 21 arb 1414.3 1.1 +3.3
Dan Wilson 28 arb 1463.5 1.1 +2.5
Jamie Moyer 34 FA-elig 303.2 1.7 +1.6
Jay Buhner 32 FA-elig 1573.0 4.8 -1.8
Paul Sorrento 31 FA-elig 1462.3 1.5 +0.9
Joey Cora 32 FA-elig 1491.6 1.0 +0.6
Russ Davis 27 arb 1191.6 0.2 +1.4
José Cruz Jr.↔ TOR 23 pre-arb 491.5 0.1 +1.5
Roberto Kelly↔ MIN 32 FA-elig 301.0 0.2 +0.8
Rob Ducey 32 FA-elig 761.0 0.2 +0.8
Mike Blowers 32 FA-elig 680.5 0.4 +0.2
Bobby Ayala 27 arb 710.5 0.9 -0.4
Heathcliff Slocumb↔ BOS 31 FA-elig 270.4 0.8 -0.4
Paul Spoljaric↔ TOR 26 arb 200.4 0.1 +0.3
Ken Cloude 22 – 100.3 – –
Mike Timlin↔ TOR 31 FA-elig 260.3 0.5 -0.2
Lee Tinsley 28 arb 490.2 0.4 -0.2
Bob Wells 30 arb 460.2 0.3 -0.1
Greg McCarthy 28 pre-arb 370.2 0.2 +0.0
Dan Rohrmeier 31 – 70.1 – –
Omar Olivares↔ DET 29 FA-elig 130.1 0.4 -0.3
John Marzano 34 FA-elig 390.1 0.2 -0.1
Mark Holzemer 27 – 140.1 – –
Rick Wilkins↔ SFG 30 FA-elig 50.1 0.1 -0.1
Andy Sheets 25 pre-arb 320.0 0.2 -0.1
Rafael Carmona 25 – 40.0 – –
Tim Davis 26 arb 20.0 0.2 -0.2
Derek Lowe↔ BOS 24 – 120.0 – –
Salomon Torres↔ WSN 25 arb 2-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Brian Raabe↔ COL 29 pre-arb 2-0.0 0.1 -0.1
Bob Wolcott 23 pre-arb 19-0.1 0.2 -0.2
Mike Maddux 35 – 6-0.1 – –
Giomar Guevara 24 – 5-0.2 – –
Norm Charlton 34 FA-elig 71-0.2 3.0 -3.2
Josias Manzanillo 29 FA-elig 16-0.2 0.2 -0.4
Felipe Lira↔ DET 25 pre-arb 8-0.3 0.1 -0.4
Brent Gates 27 arb 65-0.4 0.3 -0.7
Rich Amaral 35 FA-elig 89-0.4 0.6 -0.9
Dennis Martinez 43 – 9-0.4 – –
Raul Ibanez 25 pre-arb 11-0.4 0.1 -0.6
Edwin Hurtado 27 pre-arb 13-0.5 0.2 -0.7
Scott Sanders↔ DET 28 arb 33-0.6 0.9 -1.5
Alvaro Espinoza 35 – 33-0.6 – –

Key additions (new vs 1996)

PlayerfWAR
Jeff Fassero5.0
José Cruz Jr.1.5
Roberto Kelly1.0
Rob Ducey1.0
Mike Blowers0.5
Heathcliff Slocumb0.4

Key subtractions (gone from 1996)

Player1996 fWAR
Sterling Hitchcock2.7
Darren Bragg1.9
Mark Whiten1.6
Terry Mulholland1.2
Dave Hollins1.1
Mike Jackson0.7

Current & Historical Payroll

1997 payroll
$43.0M

What the front office was committed to as of 1997, 1997–2003. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (22)

PlayerAgeSvc1997199819992000200120022003
Ken Griffey Jr.278.000$7.9M$8.2M$8.8MFREE AGENT
Randy Johnson339.000$6.3M$4.1MFREE AGENT
Jay Buhner3210.000$4.8M$5.4M$4.8M$1.4M$1.9MFREE AGENT
Jeff Fassero346.000$3.5M$5.0M$4.1MFREE AGENT
Edgar Martinez3410.000$3.0M$3.5M$3.5M$5.4M$5.5M$7.1M$4.0M
Norm Charlton349.000$3.0MFREE AGENT
Jamie Moyer3411.000$1.7M$2.0M$2.3M$6.0M$6.5M$6.5M$6.5M
Paul Sorrento318.000$1.5MFREE AGENT
Joey Cora3210.000$1.0M$1.4MFREE AGENT
Heathcliff Slocumb316.000$817k$3.0MFREE AGENT
Rich Amaral356.000$550k$550kFREE AGENT
Mike Timlin316.000$528k$3.0MFREE AGENT
Omar Olivares297.000$418kFREE AGENT
Mike Blowers328.000$400kFREE AGENT
John Marzano3410.000$250k$300kFREE AGENT
Roberto Kelly3210.000$214kFREE AGENT
Rob Ducey3210.000$200k$375kFREE AGENT
Josias Manzanillo296.000$200kFREE AGENT
Rick Wilkins306.000$141k$336kFREE AGENT
Alvaro Espinoza3513.000—FREE AGENT
Mike Maddux3511.000—FREE AGENT
Dennis Martinez4321.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (12)

PlayerAgeSvc1997199819992000200120022003
Dan Wilson285.000$1.1MFREE AGENT
Alex Rodriguez213.000$1.1MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Sanders284.000$913kARB 3FREE AGENT
Bobby Ayala275.000$900kFREE AGENT
Lee Tinsley284.000$400kARB 3FREE AGENT
Brent Gates274.000$300kARB 3FREE AGENT
Bob Wells303.000$280kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tim Davis263.000$218kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Russ Davis273.000$185kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Paul Spoljaric263.000$65kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Salomon Torres254.000$25kARB 3FREE AGENT
Mark Holzemer274.000—ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (13)

PlayerAgeSvc1997199819992000200120022003
Bob Wolcott232.000$195kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Edwin Hurtado272.000$155kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andy Sheets251.000$152kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Greg McCarthy281.000$151kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Raul Ibanez251.000$150kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Felipe Lira252.000$81kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Raabe292.000$80kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
José Cruz Jr.230.000$71kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rafael Carmona252.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ken Cloude220.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Giomar Guevara240.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Derek Lowe240.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dan Rohrmeier31–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Mariners 1997; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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Not enough history to chart.

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Pick a wider year range.

'; return; } const s=sm(raw,w),n=s.length,X=s.map(d=>Math.round(d[1]*100)/100),Y=s.map(d=>Math.round(d[2]*10)/10),yr=s.map(d=>d[0]); let xa=Math.min(1,...X),xb=Math.max(1,...X),ya=Math.min(0,...Y),yb=Math.max(0,...Y); const px=(xb-xa)*.12+.04,py=(yb-ya)*.12+1.5;xa-=px;xb+=px;ya-=py;yb+=py; const k=Math.max(0,n-3), ann=[]; [['WINDOW','#15b6a0',xa<1&&yb>0,xa,yb,'left','top'],['CONTEND','#2f7ed8',xb>1&&yb>0,xb,yb,'right','top'], ['FORCED-SPEND','#ec5a3c',xb>1&&ya<0,xb,ya,'right','bottom'],['REBUILD','#f0a91c',xa<1&&ya<0,xa,ya,'left','bottom']].forEach(q=>{ if(q[2]) ann.push({x:q[3],y:q[4],xref:'x',yref:'y',text:q[0],showarrow:false,xanchor:q[5],yanchor:q[6],font:{size:10,color:q[1]},opacity:.85});}); ann.push({x:X[n-1],y:Y[n-1],ax:X[n-1]-0.5*(X[n-1]-X[k]),ay:Y[n-1]-0.5*(Y[n-1]-Y[k]),xref:'x',yref:'y',axref:'x',ayref:'y',showarrow:true,arrowhead:2,arrowsize:1.3,arrowwidth:1.7,arrowcolor:dirc,text:''}); Plotly.newPlot('orbit',[{x:X,y:Y,mode:'lines+markers',line:{color:col,width:2.6,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.7}, marker:{color:col,size:s.map((d,i)=>5+7*(i/Math.max(1,n-1))),line:{color:dark?'#1b1e23':'#fff',width:0.6}}, text:yr,hovertemplate:'%{text}
payroll %{x:.2f}× lg · TAB %{y:+.1f}
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slot %{x} · %{customdata[1]:.1f} WAR
%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'SEA',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});