RRosternomics
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Mariners SEA

‹ ›

GM: Jerry Dipoto

Overview

REBUILD ↘ cooling
cheap & losing · year 2 in this regime · payroll 0.53× league · TAB -4.5
-4.5TAB — talent above budget
-1.1WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)
1.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars11th/30
-7.2dead WAR — sub-replacement drag30th/30
40%dead money %9th/30
0.450win %19th/30
8.2roster fWAR22nd/30
+7surplus $M (value vs cost)9th/30
$63Mpayroll $M26th/30

Roster

CFKyle Lewis 57GBraden Bishop 3GMallex Smith 3G
LFJosé Marmolejos 18GTim Lopes 17GDylan Moore 13G
RFPhillip Ervin 19GDylan Moore 13GTim Lopes 12G
SSJ.P. Crawford 53GDonovan Walton 4GDee Strange-Gordon 3G
2BShed Long Jr. 32GDee Strange-Gordon 13GTy France 10G
3BKyle Seager 53GTy France 6GDylan Moore 2G
1BEvan White 54GJosé Marmolejos 5GDylan Moore 3G
STARTERSMarco Gonzales 2.0WARJustus Sheffield 1.6WARYusei Kikuchi 1.1WARNick Margevicius 0.6WARJustin Dunn -0.3WAR
CLuis Torrens 24GJoseph Odom 18GJoe Hudson 9G
DHTy France 19GTim Lopes 17GJosé Marmolejos 10G
BULLPEN★ Yoshihisa Hirano 4svAnthony Misiewicz 8hJoey Gerber 5hCasey Sadler 5hKendall Graveman 5hMatt Magill 2hYohan Ramírez 1hErik Swanson 1h
CLuis Torrens 24 · Joseph Odom 18 · Joe Hudson 9
1BEvan White 54 · José Marmolejos 5 · Dylan Moore 3
2BShed Long Jr. 32 · Dee Strange-Gordon 13 · Ty France 10
3BKyle Seager 53 · Ty France 6 · Dylan Moore 2
SSJ.P. Crawford 53 · Donovan Walton 4 · Dee Strange-Gordon 3
LFJosé Marmolejos 18 · Tim Lopes 17 · Dylan Moore 13
CFKyle Lewis 57 · Braden Bishop 3 · Mallex Smith 3
RFPhillip Ervin 19 · Dylan Moore 13 · Tim Lopes 12
DHTy France 19 · Tim Lopes 17 · José Marmolejos 10
SPMarco Gonzales 2.0 · Justus Sheffield 1.6 · Yusei Kikuchi 1.1 · Nick Margevicius 0.6 · Justin Dunn -0.3
BP★ Yoshihisa Hirano 4 · Anthony Misiewicz 8 · Joey Gerber 5 · Casey Sadler 5 · Kendall Graveman 5 · Matt Magill 2 · Yohan Ramírez 1 · Erik Swanson 1

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2020 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Kyle Lewis 24 pre-arb 582.1 0.2 +15.0
Marco Gonzales 28 FA-elig 112.0 1.0 +13.3
Kyle Seager 32 FA-elig 601.8 19.5 -6.6
Justus Sheffield 24 pre-arb 101.6 0.2 +11.2
J.P. Crawford 25 pre-arb 531.4 0.2 +10.3
Austin Nola↔ SDP 30 – 291.3 0.1 +9.7
Dylan Moore 27 pre-arb 381.2 0.2 +8.9
Yusei Kikuchi 29 pre-arb 91.1 16.0 -7.9
Nick Margevicius 24 pre-arb 100.6 0.2 +4.1
Ty France↔ SDP 25 pre-arb 230.6 0.1 +4.2
Anthony Misiewicz 25 – 210.4 0.2 +3.1
Kendall Graveman 29 FA-elig 110.3 1.5 +0.4
Phillip Ervin↔ CIN 27 pre-arb 180.2 0.1 +1.6
Carl Edwards Jr. 28 arb 50.2 0.9 +0.5
Casey Sadler↔ CHC 29 pre-arb 70.2 0.1 +1.3
Taylor Williams↔ SDP 28 – 140.2 0.1 +1.0
Taijuan Walker↔ TOR 27 FA-elig 50.1 0.9 +0.1
Sam Haggerty 26 pre-arb 130.1 0.1 +0.6
Joey Gerber 23 – 170.0 0.2 +0.1
Walker Lockett↔ NYM 26 pre-arb 50.0 0.1 +0.2
Taylor Guilbeau 27 pre-arb 8-0.0 0.2 -0.2
Ljay Newsome 23 – 5-0.0 0.1 -0.2
Seth Frankoff 31 pre-arb 2-0.0 0.1 -0.3
Jimmy Yacabonis 28 pre-arb 2-0.1 0.1 -0.5
Evan White 24 – 54-0.1 0.5 -0.9
Luis Torrens↔ SDP 24 pre-arb 18-0.1 0.1 -0.6
Donovan Walton 26 – 5-0.1 – –
Braden Bishop 26 pre-arb 12-0.1 0.1 -1.0
Aaron Fletcher 24 – 6-0.1 0.1 -1.0
Brandon Brennan 28 pre-arb 5-0.1 0.2 -1.2
Dan Altavilla↔ SDP 27 – 13-0.1 0.1 -1.1
Joe Hudson 29 pre-arb 9-0.2 0.1 -1.2
Jake Fraley 25 pre-arb 7-0.2 0.1 -1.3
Yoshihisa Hirano 36 pre-arb 13-0.2 1.6 -2.9
Bryan Shaw 32 FA-elig 6-0.2 0.0 -1.3
Matt Magill 30 pre-arb 11-0.2 0.2 -1.7
Yohan Ramírez 25 – 16-0.2 0.2 -1.8
Erik Swanson 26 pre-arb 9-0.3 0.2 -2.2
Brady Lail↔ CHW 26 pre-arb 7-0.3 0.1 -2.2
José Marmolejos 27 pre-arb 35-0.3 0.1 -2.3
Justin Dunn 24 pre-arb 10-0.3 0.2 -2.6
Shed Long Jr. 24 – 34-0.3 0.2 -2.7
Tim Lopes 26 – 46-0.4 – –
Daniel Vogelbach↔ MIL 27 – 18-0.4 – –
Joseph Odom 28 – 18-0.4 – –
Dee Strange-Gordon 32 FA-elig 33-0.5 13.8 -17.2
Nestor Cortes 25 pre-arb 5-0.6 0.2 -4.5
Zac Grotz 27 pre-arb 5-0.7 0.0 -5.2
Mallex Smith 27 arb 14-0.7 2.4 -7.7

Key additions (new vs 2019)

PlayerfWAR
Nick Margevicius0.6
Ty France0.6
Anthony Misiewicz0.4
Kendall Graveman0.3
Phillip Ervin0.2
Carl Edwards Jr.0.2

Key subtractions (gone from 2019)

Player2019 fWAR
Edwin Encarnación1.5
Omar Narváez1.2
Anthony Bass0.6
Matt Wisler0.3
Cory Gearrin0.3
Roenis Elías0.2

Current & Historical Payroll

2020 payroll
$62.8M
2021 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2020, 2020–2026. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2020; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (3)

PlayerAgeSvc2020202120222023202420252026
Kyle Seager328.085$19.5MFREE AGENT
Dee Strange-Gordon327.154$13.8MFREE AGENT
Bryan Shaw328.081$16kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (5)

PlayerAgeSvc2020202120222023202420252026
Mallex Smith273.125$2.4MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kendall Graveman294.078$1.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Carl Edwards Jr.285.000$950kFREE AGENT
Taijuan Walker275.142$909kFREE AGENT
Daniel Vogelbach274.000—ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (41)

PlayerAgeSvc2020202120222023202420252026
Yusei Kikuchi291.000$16.0MPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yoshihisa Hirano362.000$1.6MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Marco Gonzales282.102$1.0MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Evan White240.000$481kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Brennan281.000$219kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
J.P. Crawford251.163$213kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Magill302.031$213kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dylan Moore271.000$211kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nestor Cortes250.139$211kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Shed Long Jr.24–$210k
Erik Swanson260.113$210kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Justus Sheffield240.053$210kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Lewis240.020$209kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin Dunn240.020$209kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Margevicius240.100$209kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Anthony Misiewicz250.000$209kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yohan Ramírez250.000$209kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joey Gerber230.000$171kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Taylor Guilbeau270.046$169kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
José Marmolejos270.061$146kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ljay Newsome230.000$137kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brady Lail260.004$134kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sam Haggerty260.029$125kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jimmy Yacabonis280.078$125kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Taylor Williams281.078$113kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe Hudson290.056$81kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Walker Lockett260.066$80kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Aaron Fletcher240.000$75kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Austin Nola300.106$72kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dan Altavilla272.063$71kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Torrens241.014$63kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jake Fraley250.041$62kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ty France250.089$57kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Seth Frankoff310.002$56kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Braden Bishop260.136$56kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Phillip Ervin271.118$56kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Casey Sadler291.035$53kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zac Grotz270.051$12kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tim Lopes26–—
Donovan Walton26–—
Joseph Odom28–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Mariners 2020; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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slot %{x} · %{customdata[1]:.1f} WAR
%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'SEA',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});