RRosternomics
𝕏

Mariners SEA

‹ ›

President of baseball ops: Jerry Dipoto

Overview

WINDOW ↗ rising
cheap & winning · year 1 in this regime · payroll 0.77× league · TAB +6.2
+6.2TAB — talent above budget11th/30
+11.3WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)7th/30
7.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars11th/30
-5.3dead WAR — sub-replacement drag16th/30
25%dead money %11th/30
0.556win %9th/30
37.3roster fWAR12th/30
+26surplus $M (value vs cost)5th/30
$110Mpayroll $M21st/30

2022: made playoffs · 90–72. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFJulio Rodríguez 130GJarred Kelenic 24GTravis Jankowski 11G
LFJesse Winker 118GSam Haggerty 33GDylan Moore 18G
RFMitch Haniger 47GDylan Moore 39GSam Haggerty 37G
SSJ.P. Crawford 144GDylan Moore 26GAdam Frazier 4G
2BAdam Frazier 124GAbraham Toro 55GDylan Moore 12G
3BEugenio Suárez 130GAbraham Toro 31GDrew Ellis 7G
1BTy France 127GCarlos Santana 76GDylan Moore 8G
STARTERSLogan Gilbert 3.0WARGeorge Kirby 2.9WARRobbie Ray 1.6WARLuis Castillo 1.5WARChris Flexen 0.6WAR
CCal Raleigh 115GCurt Casali 54GLuis Torrens 42G
DHCarlos Santana 50GAbraham Toro 22GEugenio Suárez 19G
BULLPEN★ Paul Sewald 20svAndrés Muñoz 22hErik Swanson 14hDiego Castillo 9hPenn Murfee 8hMatt Festa 6hRyan Borucki 6hDrew Steckenrider 4h
CCal Raleigh 115 · Curt Casali 54 · Luis Torrens 42
1BTy France 127 · Carlos Santana 76 · Dylan Moore 8
2BAdam Frazier 124 · Abraham Toro 55 · Dylan Moore 12
3BEugenio Suárez 130 · Abraham Toro 31 · Drew Ellis 7
SSJ.P. Crawford 144 · Dylan Moore 26 · Adam Frazier 4
LFJesse Winker 118 · Sam Haggerty 33 · Dylan Moore 18
CFJulio Rodríguez 130 · Jarred Kelenic 24 · Travis Jankowski 11
RFMitch Haniger 47 · Dylan Moore 39 · Sam Haggerty 37
DHCarlos Santana 50 · Abraham Toro 22 · Eugenio Suárez 19
SPLogan Gilbert 3.0 · George Kirby 2.9 · Robbie Ray 1.6 · Luis Castillo 1.5 · Chris Flexen 0.6
BP★ Paul Sewald 20 · Andrés Muñoz 22 · Erik Swanson 14 · Diego Castillo 9 · Penn Murfee 8 · Matt Festa 6 · Ryan Borucki 6 · Drew Steckenrider 4

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2022 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Julio Rodríguez 21 pre-arb 1325.7 0.7 +20.3
Eugenio Suárez 30 FA-elig 1504.3 11.3 +4.6
Cal Raleigh 25 pre-arb 1194.2 0.7 +14.6
Logan Gilbert 25 pre-arb 323.0 0.7 +10.4
George Kirby 24 – 252.9 0.5 +10.2
Ty France 27 pre-arb 1402.6 0.7 +9.0
J.P. Crawford 27 arb 1452.2 6.0 +2.2
Dylan Moore 29 arb 1042.0 1.4 +5.9
Andrés Muñoz 23 pre-arb 641.9 0.9 +5.9
Erik Swanson 28 pre-arb 571.7 0.7 +5.6
Robbie Ray 30 FA-elig 321.6 21.0 -15.0
Luis Castillo↔ CIN 29 arb 111.5 3.2 +2.3
Sam Haggerty 28 pre-arb 831.4 0.5 +4.7
Adam Frazier 30 FA-elig 1561.3 8.0 -3.4
Mitch Haniger 31 FA-elig 570.9 7.8 -4.3
Jesse Winker 28 arb 1360.8 6.2 -3.5
Carlos Santana↔ KCR 36 FA-elig 790.7 6.3 -3.6
Penn Murfee 28 – 640.7 0.6 +1.8
Matt Brash 24 pre-arb 390.6 0.5 +1.8
Chris Flexen 27 arb 330.6 3.0 -0.9
Tom Murphy 31 FA-elig 140.5 1.6 +0.3
Paul Sewald 32 arb 650.4 1.7 -0.1
Taylor Trammell 24 pre-arb 430.4 0.4 +1.1
Diego Castillo 28 arb 590.3 2.1 -1.0
Matthew Boyd 31 arb 100.1 1.8 -1.5
Brian O'Keefe 28 – 20.0 0.0 +0.1
Wyatt Mills↔ KCR 27 – 80.0 0.1 +0.1
Ken Giles 31 FA-elig 50.0 5.2 -5.1
Kevin Padlo↔ PIT 25 – 60.0 0.0 +0.0
Brennan Bernardino 30 – 20.0 0.0 -0.0
Marcus Wilson 25 – 30.0 0.0 -0.0
Donovan Walton↔ SFG 28 – 10.0 – –
Riley O'Brien 27 pre-arb 1-0.0 0.0 -0.0
Travis Jankowski↔ NYM 31 FA-elig 1-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Drew Steckenrider 31 arb 16-0.0 3.1 -3.2
Drew Ellis↔ ARI 26 pre-arb 1-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Roenis Elías 33 arb 7-0.0 0.1 -0.2
Anthony Misiewicz↔ KCR 27 – 17-0.0 0.2 -0.4
Danny Young↔ ATL 28 – 2-0.0 0.1 -0.2
Jack Larsen 27 – 1-0.0 0.0 -0.2
Stuart Fairchild↔ CIN 26 – 3-0.1 0.0 -0.2
Mike Ford↔ ANA 29 arb 16-0.1 0.1 -0.3
Marco Gonzales 30 FA-elig 32-0.1 5.8 -6.0
Justus Sheffield 26 pre-arb 6-0.1 0.1 -0.4
Andrew Knapp↔ PIT 30 arb 2-0.1 0.1 -0.6
Jarred Kelenic 22 pre-arb 54-0.2 0.3 -0.8
Matt Koch 31 pre-arb 4-0.2 0.1 -0.6
Curt Casali↔ SFG 33 FA-elig 16-0.2 0.7 -1.3
Matt Festa 29 pre-arb 53-0.2 0.6 -1.2
Steven Souza Jr. 33 – 6-0.2 0.0 -0.8
Jake Lamb↔ LAD 31 FA-elig 16-0.2 0.1 -0.9
Kyle Lewis 26 pre-arb 18-0.3 0.5 -1.5
Yohan Ramírez↔ CLE 27 – 7-0.3 0.1 -1.2
Tommy Milone 35 – 7-0.3 0.2 -1.4
Ryan Borucki↔ TOR 28 arb 21-0.4 0.5 -1.9
Justin Upton 34 – 17-0.4 0.1 -1.5
Luis Torrens 26 pre-arb 57-0.6 1.2 -3.4
Abraham Toro 25 pre-arb 109-0.6 0.6 -2.9
Sergio Romo↔ TOR 39 FA-elig 17-0.7 1.5 -4.1

Key additions (new vs 2021)

PlayerfWAR
Julio Rodríguez5.7
Eugenio Suárez4.3
George Kirby2.9
Robbie Ray1.6
Luis Castillo1.5
Adam Frazier1.3

Key subtractions (gone from 2021)

Player2021 fWAR
Kyle Seager2.3
Jake Fraley1.1
Yusei Kikuchi1.1
Kendall Graveman0.8
Tyler Anderson0.7
Justin Dunn0.5

Current & Historical Payroll

2022 payroll
$110.1M
2023 guaranteed
$33.7M

What the front office was committed to as of 2022, 2022–2028. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2022; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (12)

PlayerAgeSvc2022202320242025202620272028
Robbie Ray307.007$21.0M$21.0M$23.0M$25.0MOPT-OUT$25.0MFREE AGENT
Eugenio Suárez307.061$11.3MFREE AGENT
Carlos Santana3611.115$6.3MFREE AGENT
J.P. Crawford273.163$6.0M$11.0M$11.0M$11.0M$12.0MFREE AGENT
Ken Giles318.000$5.2MFREE AGENT
Sergio Romo3914.000$1.5MFREE AGENT
Andrés Muñoz232.080$938k$1.7M$2.2M$2.7M$7.0MCLUB$8.0MCLUB$10.0MCLUB
Tommy Milone3511.000$181kFREE AGENT
Justin Upton3414.060$135kFREE AGENT
Jake Lamb318.000$113kFREE AGENT
Steven Souza Jr.338.000$43kFREE AGENT
Travis Jankowski317.000$28kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (15)

PlayerAgeSvc2022202320242025202620272028
Adam Frazier305.075$8.0MFREE AGENT
Mitch Haniger315.048$7.8MFREE AGENT
Jesse Winker284.080$6.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Marco Gonzales304.102$5.8MARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Castillo294.101$3.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Drew Steckenrider314.094$3.1MARB 3FREE AGENT
Diego Castillo283.118$2.1MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matthew Boyd315.136$1.8MFREE AGENT
Paul Sewald323.072$1.7MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tom Murphy314.092$1.6MARB 3FREE AGENT
Dylan Moore293.000$1.4MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Curt Casali335.151$730kFREE AGENT
Ryan Borucki283.060$541kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Roenis Elías335.069$108kFREE AGENT
Andrew Knapp305.000$100kFREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (32)

PlayerAgeSvc2022202320242025202620272028
Chris Flexen271.107$3.0MPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Torrens262.118$1.2MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ty France272.089$734kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Logan Gilbert250.144$712kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Erik Swanson282.096$712kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Julio Rodríguez210.000$700kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cal Raleigh250.085$684kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Penn Murfee280.000$646kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Abraham Toro251.162$638kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Festa290.095$615kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Lewis262.020$525kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
George Kirby240.000$519kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sam Haggerty281.140$477kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Brash240.006$454kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Taylor Trammell240.082$427kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jarred Kelenic220.105$260kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Anthony Misiewicz272.000$244kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Justus Sheffield262.053$130kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Ford291.117$85kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Koch310.141$62kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Wyatt Mills270.061$57kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yohan Ramírez271.089$53kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Danny Young280.000$51kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Marcus Wilson252.009$35kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brennan Bernardino300.000$19kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kevin Padlo250.023$18kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Stuart Fairchild260.048$16kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian O'Keefe280.000$15kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jack Larsen27–$12k
Riley O'Brien270.003$12kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Drew Ellis260.042$2kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Donovan Walton28–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Mariners 2022; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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slot %{x} · %{customdata[1]:.1f} WAR
%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'SEA',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});