RRosternomics
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Mariners SEA

‹ ›

President of baseball ops: Jerry Dipoto · GM: Justin Hollander

Overview

WINDOW ↘ cooling
cheap & winning · year 4 in this regime · payroll 0.91× league · TAB +7.6
+7.6TAB — talent above budget6th/30
+9.3WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)4th/30
9.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars4th/30
-4.8dead WAR — sub-replacement drag16th/30
27%dead money %13th/30
0.556win %7th/30
40.7roster fWAR9th/30
+18surplus $M (value vs cost)9th/30
$141Mpayroll $M15th/30

2025: made playoffs · 90–72. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFJulio Rodríguez 159GLeody Taveras 32GLuke Raley 5G
LFRandy Arozarena 158GMiles Mastrobuoni 10GLuke Raley 2G
RFDominic Canzone 70GLuke Raley 37GVictor Robles 29G
SSJ.P. Crawford 157GLeo Rivas 7GDylan Moore 6G
2BCole Young 73GJorge Polanco 38GLeo Rivas 34G
3BEugenio Suárez 154GBen Williamson 85GMiles Mastrobuoni 27G
1BJosh Naylor 129GDonovan Solano 66GLuke Raley 31G
STARTERSBryan Woo 3.6WARLogan Gilbert 2.6WARLuis Castillo 2.6WARGeorge Kirby 2.4WAREmerson Hancock -0.0WAR
CCal Raleigh 121GMitch Garver 43GHarry Ford 4G
DHJorge Polanco 88GMitch Garver 39GCal Raleigh 38G
BULLPEN★ Andrés Muñoz 38svGabe Speier 24hMatt Brash 21hCarlos Vargas 14hCaleb Ferguson 14hEduard Bazardo 12hLuke Jackson 4hCasey Legumina 3h
CCal Raleigh 121 · Mitch Garver 43 · Harry Ford 4
1BJosh Naylor 129 · Donovan Solano 66 · Luke Raley 31
2BCole Young 73 · Jorge Polanco 38 · Leo Rivas 34
3BEugenio Suárez 154 · Ben Williamson 85 · Miles Mastrobuoni 27
SSJ.P. Crawford 157 · Leo Rivas 7 · Dylan Moore 6
LFRandy Arozarena 158 · Miles Mastrobuoni 10 · Luke Raley 2
CFJulio Rodríguez 159 · Leody Taveras 32 · Luke Raley 5
RFDominic Canzone 70 · Luke Raley 37 · Victor Robles 29
DHJorge Polanco 88 · Mitch Garver 39 · Cal Raleigh 38
SPBryan Woo 3.6 · Logan Gilbert 2.6 · Luis Castillo 2.6 · George Kirby 2.4 · Emerson Hancock -0.0
BP★ Andrés Muñoz 38 · Gabe Speier 24 · Matt Brash 21 · Carlos Vargas 14 · Caleb Ferguson 14 · Eduard Bazardo 12 · Luke Jackson 4 · Casey Legumina 3

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2025 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Cal Raleigh 28 arb 1599.1 2.7 +33.5
Julio Rodríguez 24 arb 1605.7 20.2 +2.6
Bryan Woo 25 pre-arb 303.6 0.8 +13.6
Randy Arozarena 30 arb 1602.9 11.3 +0.2
J.P. Crawford 30 FA-elig 1572.8 11.0 +0.2
Jorge Polanco 31 FA-elig 1382.6 9.5 +1.0
Luis Castillo 32 FA-elig 322.6 24.1 -13.7
Logan Gilbert 28 arb 252.6 7.6 +2.5
George Kirby 27 pre-arb 232.4 4.3 +5.3
Andrés Muñoz 26 arb 641.9 2.7 +4.9
Josh Naylor↔ ARI 28 arb 541.8 2.6 +4.4
Gabe Speier 30 arb 761.7 0.8 +5.9
Dominic Canzone 27 pre-arb 821.5 0.6 +5.3
Matt Brash 27 pre-arb 530.8 0.8 +2.3
Leo Rivas 27 – 480.8 – –
Eugenio Suárez↔ ARI 33 FA-elig 530.7 3.4 -0.4
Eduard Bazardo 29 pre-arb 730.5 0.9 +1.1
Ben Williamson 24 – 850.4 0.5 +1.0
Miles Mastrobuoni 29 pre-arb 760.3 0.6 +0.4
Collin Snider 29 pre-arb 240.2 0.5 +0.4
Luke Raley 30 pre-arb 730.2 0.8 -0.1
Luke Jackson↔ DET 33 FA-elig 100.2 0.2 +0.4
Caleb Ferguson↔ PIT 28 FA-elig 250.1 0.7 -0.2
Juan Burgos↔ ARI 25 – 40.1 0.1 +0.3
Donovan Solano↔ TEX 37 – 690.0 3.4 -3.3
Ryan Bliss 25 pre-arb 110.0 0.8 -0.7
Bryce Miller 26 pre-arb 180.0 0.8 -0.7
Jhonathan Díaz 28 pre-arb 10.0 0.2 -0.1
Casey Lawrence↔ TOR 37 pre-arb 50.0 0.1 -0.1
Luis F. Castillo 30 – 20.0 – –
Sauryn Lao↔ WSN 25 – 2-0.0 0.0 -0.1
José Castillo↔ ARI 29 – 3-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Mitch Garver 34 FA-elig 87-0.0 12.5 -12.6
Brandyn Garcia↔ ARI 25 – 2-0.0 0.0 -0.2
Emerson Hancock 26 pre-arb 22-0.0 0.6 -0.7
Harry Ford 22 – 8-0.0 0.1 -0.3
Logan Evans 24 – 16-0.1 0.5 -0.7
Rhylan Thomas 25 – 3-0.1 0.0 -0.2
Blas Castaño 26 – 1-0.1 0.1 -0.5
Tayler Saucedo 32 arb 10-0.1 0.9 -1.3
Casey Legumina 28 pre-arb 48-0.1 0.6 -1.0
Samad Taylor 26 pre-arb 4-0.1 0.1 -0.6
Troy Taylor 23 pre-arb 8-0.2 0.3 -1.0
Dylan Moore↔ TEX 32 – 88-0.2 2.6 -3.3
Victor Robles 28 FA-elig 32-0.2 4.1 -5.0
Gregory Santos 25 pre-arb 8-0.2 0.4 -1.3
Jesse Hahn 35 FA-elig 3-0.2 0.0 -1.0
Jackson Kowar 28 pre-arb 15-0.2 0.6 -1.6
Cole Young 21 – 77-0.3 0.5 -1.6
Trent Thornton 31 arb 33-0.3 2.0 -3.1
Zach Pop↔ NYM 28 – 4-0.3 0.1 -1.2
Rowdy Tellez↔ TEX 30 – 62-0.4 0.7 -2.1
Carlos Vargas 25 pre-arb 70-0.6 0.8 -3.1
Leody Taveras↔ TEX 26 arb 28-1.0 1.8 -5.8

Key additions (new vs 2024)

PlayerfWAR
Josh Naylor1.8
Matt Brash0.8
Eugenio Suárez0.7
Ben Williamson0.4
Miles Mastrobuoni0.3
Luke Jackson0.2

Key subtractions (gone from 2024)

Player2024 fWAR
Josh Rojas1.8
Justin Turner0.7
Luis Urías0.2
Cade Marlowe0.0
Tyson Miller0.0
Ryne Stanek0.0

Current & Historical Payroll

2025 payroll
$141.4M
2026 guaranteed
$81.1M

What the front office was committed to as of 2025, 2025–2031. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2025; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (15)

PlayerAgeSvc2025202620272028202920302031
Luis Castillo327.101$24.1M$24.1M$24.1M$25.0MVESTFREE AGENT
Julio Rodríguez243.000$20.2M$20.2M$20.2M$20.2M$20.2M$18.0MCLUB$18.0M
Mitch Garver347.045$12.5MFREE AGENT
J.P. Crawford306.163$11.0M$12.0MFREE AGENT
Jorge Polanco318.024$9.5MFREE AGENT
Victor Robles286.033$4.1M$5.1M$9.0MCLUBFREE AGENT
Donovan Solano379.057$3.4MFREE AGENT
Eugenio Suárez3310.061$3.4MCLUBFREE AGENT
Andrés Muñoz265.080$2.7M$7.0MCLUB$8.0MCLUB$10.0MCLUBFREE AGENT
Cal Raleigh283.085$2.7M$12.7M$13.7M$24.7M$24.7M$24.7MFREE AGENT
Dylan Moore326.000$2.6MFREE AGENT
Caleb Ferguson286.093$720kFREE AGENT
Rowdy Tellez306.004$667kFREE AGENT
Luke Jackson338.019$237kFREE AGENT
Jesse Hahn356.067$48kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (9)

PlayerAgeSvc2025202620272028202920302031
Randy Arozarena304.129$11.3MARB 3FREE AGENT
Logan Gilbert283.144$7.6MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Naylor285.127$2.6MFREE AGENT
Trent Thornton314.148$2.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Leody Taveras263.124$1.8MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tayler Saucedo323.112$938kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gabe Speier303.000$845kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zach Pop283.024$74kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
José Castillo294.011$29kARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (30)

PlayerAgeSvc2025202620272028202920302031
George Kirby272.151$4.3MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eduard Bazardo291.118$893kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bryce Miller261.153$800kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luke Raley302.106$787kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bryan Woo251.121$783kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Brash272.121$778kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Bliss250.061$762kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carlos Vargas250.140$761kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Miles Mastrobuoni291.077$612kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Casey Legumina280.139$608kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dominic Canzone271.068$604kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jackson Kowar281.163$593kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Emerson Hancock260.116$561kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Collin Snider291.128$540kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Logan Evans240.000$520kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cole Young210.000$494kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ben Williamson240.000$465kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gregory Santos252.055$418kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Troy Taylor230.051$268kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jhonathan Díaz280.119$211kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Blas Castaño260.000$125kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Samad Taylor260.071$124kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Harry Ford220.000$114kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Casey Lawrence371.064$111kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Juan Burgos250.000$64kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rhylan Thomas25–$29k
Brandyn Garcia250.000$22kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sauryn Lao25–$14k
Luis F. Castillo30–—
Leo Rivas271.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Mariners 2025; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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Not enough history to chart.

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Pick a wider year range.

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slot %{x} · %{customdata[1]:.1f} WAR
%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'SEA',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});