RRosternomics
𝕏

Giants SFG

‹ ›

GM: Brian Sabean

Overview

CONTEND ↘ cooling
expensive & winning · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.22× league · TAB +3.3
+3.3TAB — talent above budget13th/30
+9.6WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)7th/30
7.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars15th/30
-4.3dead WAR — sub-replacement drag12th/30
29%dead money %11th/30
0.580win %4th/30
39.9roster fWAR11th/30
-18surplus $M (value vs cost)18th/30
$122Mpayroll $M8th/30

2012: World Series champions · 94–68. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFÁngel Pagán 151GGrégor Blanco 30GJustin Christian 1G
LFMelky Cabrera 106GGrégor Blanco 53GXavier Nady 40G
RFHunter Pence 159GGrégor Blanco 54GMelky Cabrera 11G
SSBrandon Crawford 139GJoaquin Arias 50GEmmanuel Burriss 6G
2BMarco Scutaro 118GRyan Theriot 91GEmmanuel Burriss 37G
3BPablo Sandoval 102GJoaquin Arias 74GMarco Scutaro 15G
1BBrandon Belt 139GBuster Posey 29GBrett Pill 24G
STARTERSMatt Cain 3.6WARMadison Bumgarner 3.0WARRyan Vogelsong 1.9WARBarry Zito 0.9WARTim Lincecum 0.9WAR
CBuster Posey 114GHéctor Sánchez 56GEli Whiteside 11G
DHJustin Christian 3GBuster Posey 3GPablo Sandoval 2G
BULLPEN★ Santiago Casilla 25svSergio Romo 23hJose Mijares 18hJavier López 18hJeremy Affeldt 16hGuillermo Mota 10hClay Hensley 8hGeorge Kontos 5h
CBuster Posey 114 · Héctor Sánchez 56 · Eli Whiteside 11
1BBrandon Belt 139 · Buster Posey 29 · Brett Pill 24
2BMarco Scutaro 118 · Ryan Theriot 91 · Emmanuel Burriss 37
3BPablo Sandoval 102 · Joaquin Arias 74 · Marco Scutaro 15
SSBrandon Crawford 139 · Joaquin Arias 50 · Emmanuel Burriss 6
LFMelky Cabrera 106 · Grégor Blanco 53 · Xavier Nady 40
CFÁngel Pagán 151 · Grégor Blanco 30 · Justin Christian 1
RFHunter Pence 159 · Grégor Blanco 54 · Melky Cabrera 11
DHJustin Christian 3 · Buster Posey 3 · Pablo Sandoval 2
SPMatt Cain 3.6 · Madison Bumgarner 3.0 · Ryan Vogelsong 1.9 · Barry Zito 0.9 · Tim Lincecum 0.9
BP★ Santiago Casilla 25 · Sergio Romo 23 · Jose Mijares 18 · Javier López 18 · Jeremy Affeldt 16 · Guillermo Mota 10 · Clay Hensley 8 · George Kontos 5

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2012 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Buster Posey 25 arb 1489.8 0.6 +24.6
Ángel Pagán 30 FA-elig 1544.6 4.8 +7.0
Melky Cabrera 27 FA-elig 1134.5 6.0 +5.6
Matt Cain 27 FA-elig 353.6 15.0 -5.8
Madison Bumgarner 22 arb 323.0 0.6 +7.1
Pablo Sandoval 25 arb 1082.4 3.2 +3.0
Marco Scutaro↔ COL 36 FA-elig 612.1 2.3 +3.0
Brandon Crawford 25 pre-arb 1431.9 0.5 +4.3
Ryan Vogelsong 34 FA-elig 311.9 3.0 +1.8
Grégor Blanco 28 arb 1411.8 0.5 +4.2
Brandon Belt 24 pre-arb 1451.8 0.5 +4.1
Sergio Romo 29 arb 691.0 1.6 +1.0
Tim Lincecum 28 arb 330.9 18.0 -15.5
Barry Zito 34 FA-elig 320.9 19.0 -16.6
Jeremy Affeldt 33 FA-elig 670.8 5.0 -2.9
Joaquin Arias 27 pre-arb 1120.6 0.5 +1.2
Javier López 34 FA-elig 700.5 4.2 -2.9
Nate Schierholtz↔ PHI 28 arb 770.5 0.9 +0.5
George Kontos 27 pre-arb 440.5 0.5 +0.7
Jose Mijares↔ KCR 27 arb 270.3 0.3 +0.4
Ryan Theriot 32 FA-elig 1040.2 1.2 -0.6
Hunter Pence↔ PHI 29 arb 590.2 3.8 -3.3
Francisco Peguero 24 pre-arb 170.1 0.5 -0.1
Xavier Nady↔ WSN 33 FA-elig 190.1 0.2 -0.0
Eli Whiteside 32 FA-elig 120.1 0.6 -0.4
Héctor Sánchez 22 pre-arb 740.1 0.5 -0.3
Dan Otero 27 pre-arb 120.1 0.5 -0.3
Travis Blackley↔ OAK 29 – 40.0 – –
Dan Runzler 27 arb 60.0 0.5 -0.5
Brian Wilson 30 FA-elig 2-0.0 8.5 -8.5
Yusmeiro Petit 27 pre-arb 1-0.0 0.5 -0.6
Eric Hacker 29 – 4-0.0 – –
Steve Edlefsen 27 – 14-0.0 – –
Guillermo Mota 38 FA-elig 26-0.1 1.0 -1.2
Brett Pill 27 pre-arb 48-0.1 0.5 -0.7
Aubrey Huff 35 FA-elig 52-0.1 10.0 -10.2
Jean Machi 30 pre-arb 8-0.1 0.5 -0.8
Shane Loux 32 – 19-0.3 0.5 -1.1
Conor Gillaspie 24 pre-arb 6-0.3 0.5 -1.2
Charlie Culberson 23 – 6-0.3 0.5 -1.3
Santiago Casilla 31 FA-elig 73-0.4 2.2 -3.3
Brad Penny 34 FA-elig 22-0.4 0.3 -1.4
Justin Christian 32 – 34-0.6 0.4 -2.0
Clay Hensley 32 FA-elig 60-0.6 0.8 -2.3
Emmanuel Burriss 27 arb 60-0.9 0.6 -3.1

Key additions (new vs 2011)

PlayerfWAR
Ángel Pagán4.6
Melky Cabrera4.5
Marco Scutaro2.1
Grégor Blanco1.8
Joaquin Arias0.6
George Kontos0.5

Key subtractions (gone from 2011)

Player2011 fWAR
Chris Stewart2.6
Andres Torres2.1
Carlos Beltrán1.0
Cody Ross0.7
Ramon E Ramirez0.7
Jonathan Sánchez0.6

Current & Historical Payroll

2012 payroll
$121.5M

What the front office was committed to as of 2012, 2012–2018. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (10)

PlayerAgeSvc2012201320142015201620172018
Barry Zito3411.072$19.0M$20.0MFREE AGENT
Matt Cain2711.038$15.0M$20.0M$20.0M$21.0M$21.0M$21.0MFREE AGENT
Aubrey Huff3511.003$10.0MFREE AGENT
Jeremy Affeldt3310.000$5.0M$6.0M$6.0M$6.0MFREE AGENT
Javier López3410.167$4.2M$4.2M$4.0M$4.0M$5.0MFREE AGENT
Marco Scutaro368.138$2.3M$6.7M$6.7MFREE AGENT
Guillermo Mota3811.159$1.0MFREE AGENT
Shane Loux3210.000$480kFREE AGENT
Brad Penny3412.000$265kFREE AGENT
Xavier Nady338.059$225kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (14)

PlayerAgeSvc2012201320142015201620172018
Tim Lincecum284.148$18.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Wilson304.169$8.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Melky Cabrera275.148$6.0MFREE AGENT
Ángel Pagán305.144$4.8MFREE AGENT
Hunter Pence294.156$3.8MARB 3FREE AGENT
Pablo Sandoval253.047$3.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Vogelsong345.020$3.0MFREE AGENT
Santiago Casilla314.148$2.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Sergio Romo293.097$1.6MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Theriot325.118$1.2MFREE AGENT
Nate Schierholtz283.078$878kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Clay Hensley324.161$750kARB 3FREE AGENT
Eli Whiteside323.012$600kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jose Mijares273.024$320kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (21)

PlayerAgeSvc2012201320142015201620172018
Emmanuel Burriss272.152$625kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Buster Posey251.161$615kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Madison Bumgarner221.127$560kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Grégor Blanco281.164$516kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dan Runzler271.128$483kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
George Kontos270.023$481kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Belt240.128$481kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Crawford250.094$481kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Francisco Peguero240.087$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dan Otero270.000$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Héctor Sánchez220.037$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yusmeiro Petit272.110$480kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joaquin Arias272.081$480kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Conor Gillaspie240.058$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Charlie Culberson230.000$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jean Machi302.154$480kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brett Pill270.142$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin Christian32–$414k
Travis Blackley291.026—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Steve Edlefsen271.039—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eric Hacker29–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Giants 2012; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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Not enough history to chart.

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Pick a wider year range.

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payroll %{x:.2f}× lg · TAB %{y:+.1f}
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slot %{x} · %{customdata[1]:.1f} WAR
%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'SFG',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});