RRosternomics
𝕏

Giants SFG

‹ ›

GM: Brian Sabean

Overview

FORCED-SPEND ↘ cooling
expensive & losing · year 2 in this regime · payroll 1.39× league · TAB -3.1
-3.1TAB — talent above budget21st/30
+1.9WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)13th/30
5.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars22nd/30
-3.2dead WAR — sub-replacement drag4th/30
46%dead money %23rd/30
0.543win %8th/30
35.1roster fWAR12th/30
-54surplus $M (value vs cost)25th/30
$157Mpayroll $M5th/30

2014: World Series champions · 88–74. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFÁngel Pagán 91GGrégor Blanco 72GJuan Carlos Perez 17G
LFMichael Morse 84GGrégor Blanco 64GTyler Colvin 43G
RFHunter Pence 161GJuan Carlos Perez 5GGrégor Blanco 1G
SSBrandon Crawford 149GJoaquin Arias 11GEhire Adrianza 7G
2BJoe Panik 70GBrandon Hicks 61GDan Uggla 39G
3BPablo Sandoval 151GJoaquin Arias 44GEhire Adrianza 3G
1BBrandon Belt 59GMichael Morse 43GTravis Ishikawa 42G
STARTERSMadison Bumgarner 4.9WARYusmeiro Petit 1.5WARTim Hudson 1.3WARJake Peavy 1.1WARRyan Vogelsong 1.0WAR
CBuster Posey 111GHéctor Sánchez 45GAndrew Susac 29G
DHMichael Morse 4GPablo Sandoval 3GBuster Posey 2G
BULLPEN★ Sergio Romo 23svJeremy Affeldt 18hJean Machi 17hJavier López 12hJuan Gutierrez 10hSantiago Casilla 10hGeorge Kontos 1hHunter Strickland 1h
CBuster Posey 111 · Héctor Sánchez 45 · Andrew Susac 29
1BBrandon Belt 59 · Michael Morse 43 · Travis Ishikawa 42
2BJoe Panik 70 · Brandon Hicks 61 · Dan Uggla 39
3BPablo Sandoval 151 · Joaquin Arias 44 · Ehire Adrianza 3
SSBrandon Crawford 149 · Joaquin Arias 11 · Ehire Adrianza 7
LFMichael Morse 84 · Grégor Blanco 64 · Tyler Colvin 43
CFÁngel Pagán 91 · Grégor Blanco 72 · Juan Carlos Perez 17
RFHunter Pence 161 · Juan Carlos Perez 5 · Grégor Blanco 1
DHMichael Morse 4 · Pablo Sandoval 3 · Buster Posey 2
SPMadison Bumgarner 4.9 · Yusmeiro Petit 1.5 · Tim Hudson 1.3 · Jake Peavy 1.1 · Ryan Vogelsong 1.0
BP★ Sergio Romo 23 · Jeremy Affeldt 18 · Jean Machi 17 · Javier López 12 · Juan Gutierrez 10 · Santiago Casilla 10 · George Kontos 1 · Hunter Strickland 1

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2014 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Buster Posey 27 arb 1477.5 12.5 +9.5
Madison Bumgarner 24 arb 344.9 3.8 +10.6
Hunter Pence 31 FA-elig 1624.1 16.0 -4.1
Pablo Sandoval 27 FA-elig 1573.3 8.2 +1.3
Brandon Crawford 27 arb 1532.7 0.6 +7.5
Grégor Blanco 30 FA-elig 1461.9 2.5 +3.1
Ángel Pagán 32 FA-elig 961.8 10.2 -4.9
Michael Morse 32 FA-elig 1311.6 6.0 -1.3
Yusmeiro Petit 29 FA-elig 391.5 0.8 +3.6
Tim Hudson 38 FA-elig 311.3 11.0 -7.1
Joe Panik 23 – 731.3 0.3 +3.6
Jake Peavy↔ BOS 33 FA-elig 121.1 5.4 -2.2
Ryan Vogelsong 36 FA-elig 321.0 5.0 -2.2
Andrew Susac 24 – 350.8 0.2 +2.2
Brandon Belt 26 arb 610.8 2.9 -0.7
Brandon Hicks 28 pre-arb 710.4 0.3 +1.0
Santiago Casilla 33 FA-elig 540.4 4.5 -3.2
Jeremy Affeldt 35 FA-elig 620.4 6.0 -4.7
Travis Ishikawa↔ PIT 30 arb 470.3 0.1 +0.8
George Kontos 29 pre-arb 240.2 0.2 +0.5
Gary Brown 25 – 70.2 0.1 +0.6
Hunter Strickland 25 – 90.2 0.1 +0.6
Tyler Colvin 28 arb 570.1 1.0 -0.7
Héctor Sánchez 24 arb 660.1 0.5 -0.3
Matt Duffy 23 – 340.1 0.2 +0.0
Jean Machi 32 pre-arb 710.0 0.5 -0.4
Erik Cordier 28 pre-arb 70.0 0.1 +0.0
Chris Heston 26 pre-arb 30.0 0.1 -0.0
Jake Dunning 25 – 1-0.0 – –
Ehire Adrianza 24 pre-arb 53-0.0 0.5 -0.6
Matt Cain 29 FA-elig 15-0.1 20.0 -20.2
Tim Lincecum 30 FA-elig 34-0.1 17.0 -17.2
Guillermo Quiroz 32 – 2-0.1 – –
Brett Bochy 26 – 3-0.1 – –
Mike Kickham 25 pre-arb 2-0.1 0.1 -0.3
Tony Abreu 29 FA-elig 3-0.1 0.7 -1.1
Joaquin Arias 29 FA-elig 107-0.1 1.1 -1.5
David Huff↔ NYY 29 arb 16-0.2 0.2 -0.6
Marco Scutaro 38 FA-elig 5-0.2 6.7 -7.2
Adam Duvall 25 – 28-0.2 0.2 -0.7
Sergio Romo 31 FA-elig 64-0.2 5.5 -6.1
Dan Uggla↔ ATL 34 FA-elig 4-0.2 1.0 -1.7
Juan Gutierrez 30 FA-elig 61-0.2 0.8 -1.5
Chris Dominguez 27 – 8-0.4 0.1 -1.3
Javier López 36 FA-elig 65-0.4 4.0 -5.3
Juan Carlos Perez 27 pre-arb 61-0.5 0.5 -1.9

Key additions (new vs 2013)

PlayerfWAR
Michael Morse1.6
Tim Hudson1.3
Joe Panik1.3
Jake Peavy1.1
Andrew Susac0.8
Brandon Hicks0.4

Key subtractions (gone from 2013)

Player2013 fWAR
Chad Gaudin0.9
Jose Mijares0.4
Heath Hembree0.2
Andres Torres0.2
Brett Pill0.1
Francisco Peguero-0.0

Current & Historical Payroll

2014 payroll
$157.4M

What the front office was committed to as of 2014, 2014–2020. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (14)

PlayerAgeSvc2014201520162017201820192020
Matt Cain2911.038$20.0M$21.0M$21.0M$21.0MFREE AGENT
Tim Lincecum306.148$17.0M$18.0MFREE AGENT
Hunter Pence316.156$16.0M$18.5M$18.5M$18.5M$18.5MFREE AGENT$3.0M
Tim Hudson3814.119$11.0M$12.0MFREE AGENT
Ángel Pagán327.144$10.2M$10.2M$11.2MFREE AGENT
Marco Scutaro3810.138$6.7MFREE AGENT
Michael Morse329.000$6.0MFREE AGENT$535k
Jeremy Affeldt3512.000$6.0M$6.0MFREE AGENT
Jake Peavy3311.101$5.4M$9.0M$15.0MFREE AGENT
Ryan Vogelsong367.020$5.0M$4.0MFREE AGENT
Santiago Casilla336.148$4.5M$5.0M$6.5MFREE AGENT
Javier López3610.167$4.0M$4.0M$5.0MFREE AGENT
Dan Uggla348.000$1.0MFREE AGENT
Juan Gutierrez307.000$850kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (11)

PlayerAgeSvc2014201520162017201820192020
Buster Posey273.161$12.5MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pablo Sandoval275.047$8.2MFREE AGENT
Sergio Romo315.097$5.5MFREE AGENT
Madison Bumgarner243.127$3.8MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Grégor Blanco303.164$2.5MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joaquin Arias294.071$1.1MARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Colvin283.001$1.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yusmeiro Petit293.016$845kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tony Abreu293.170$745kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Travis Ishikawa303.098$128kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Guillermo Quiroz324.013—ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (21)

PlayerAgeSvc2014201520162017201820192020
Brandon Belt262.128$2.9MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Crawford272.094$560kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Héctor Sánchez241.166$512kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jean Machi322.154$505kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Juan Carlos Perez271.000$501kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ehire Adrianza240.027$500kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Hicks281.151$295kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe Panik230.000$273kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andrew Susac240.000$178kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Huff292.062$176kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
George Kontos291.099$167kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adam Duvall250.000$161kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Duffy230.000$158kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Hunter Strickland250.000$77kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Dominguez270.000$77kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Kickham250.059$77kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Heston261.140$74kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Erik Cordier280.129$71kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gary Brown25–$71k
Jake Dunning25–—
Brett Bochy260.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Giants 2014; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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Not enough history to chart.

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Pick a wider year range.

'; return; } const s=sm(raw,w),n=s.length,X=s.map(d=>Math.round(d[1]*100)/100),Y=s.map(d=>Math.round(d[2]*10)/10),yr=s.map(d=>d[0]); let xa=Math.min(1,...X),xb=Math.max(1,...X),ya=Math.min(0,...Y),yb=Math.max(0,...Y); const px=(xb-xa)*.12+.04,py=(yb-ya)*.12+1.5;xa-=px;xb+=px;ya-=py;yb+=py; const k=Math.max(0,n-3), ann=[]; [['WINDOW','#15b6a0',xa<1&&yb>0,xa,yb,'left','top'],['CONTEND','#2f7ed8',xb>1&&yb>0,xb,yb,'right','top'], ['FORCED-SPEND','#ec5a3c',xb>1&&ya<0,xb,ya,'right','bottom'],['REBUILD','#f0a91c',xa<1&&ya<0,xa,ya,'left','bottom']].forEach(q=>{ if(q[2]) ann.push({x:q[3],y:q[4],xref:'x',yref:'y',text:q[0],showarrow:false,xanchor:q[5],yanchor:q[6],font:{size:10,color:q[1]},opacity:.85});}); ann.push({x:X[n-1],y:Y[n-1],ax:X[n-1]-0.5*(X[n-1]-X[k]),ay:Y[n-1]-0.5*(Y[n-1]-Y[k]),xref:'x',yref:'y',axref:'x',ayref:'y',showarrow:true,arrowhead:2,arrowsize:1.3,arrowwidth:1.7,arrowcolor:dirc,text:''}); Plotly.newPlot('orbit',[{x:X,y:Y,mode:'lines+markers',line:{color:col,width:2.6,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.7}, marker:{color:col,size:s.map((d,i)=>5+7*(i/Math.max(1,n-1))),line:{color:dark?'#1b1e23':'#fff',width:0.6}}, text:yr,hovertemplate:'%{text}
payroll %{x:.2f}× lg · TAB %{y:+.1f}
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slot %{x} · %{customdata[1]:.1f} WAR
%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'SFG',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});