RRosternomics
𝕏

Cardinals STL

‹ ›

GM: Walt Jocketty

Overview

CONTEND ↗ rising
expensive & winning · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.2× league · TAB +0.3
+0.3TAB — talent above budget13th/28
+3.8WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)10th/28
8.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars9th/28
-2.6dead WAR — sub-replacement drag4th/28
9%dead money %3rd/28
0.543win %7th/28
36.7roster fWAR10th/28
-9surplus $M (value vs cost)19th/28
$39Mpayroll $M8th/28

1996: made playoffs · 88–74. Ranks are vs the 28 teams that season.

Roster

CFRay Lankford 144GBrian Jordan 13GMiguel Mejia 11G
LFRon Gant 116GMark Sweeney 36GWillie McGee 35G
RFBrian Jordan 128GWillie McGee 42GJohn Mabry 13G
SSRoyce Clayton 113GOzzie Smith 52GMike Gallego 1G
2BLuis Alicea 125GMike Gallego 43GDavid Bell 20G
3BGary Gaetti 133GDavid Bell 45GDanny Sheaffer 17G
1BJohn Mabry 146GMark Sweeney 15GGary Gaetti 14G
STARTERSDonovan Osborne 3.3WARTodd Stottlemyre 2.8WARAndy Benes 2.4WARAlan Benes 0.6WARMark Petkovsek 0.0WAR
CTom Pagnozzi 116GDanny Sheaffer 47GMike DiFelice 4G
BULLPEN★ Dennis Eckersley 30svT.J. Mathews 0hTony Fossas 0hRick Honeycutt 0hCory Bailey 0hDanny Jackson 0hRich Batchelor 0hEric Ludwick 0h
CTom Pagnozzi 116 · Danny Sheaffer 47 · Mike DiFelice 4
1BJohn Mabry 146 · Mark Sweeney 15 · Gary Gaetti 14
2BLuis Alicea 125 · Mike Gallego 43 · David Bell 20
3BGary Gaetti 133 · David Bell 45 · Danny Sheaffer 17
SSRoyce Clayton 113 · Ozzie Smith 52 · Mike Gallego 1
LFRon Gant 116 · Mark Sweeney 36 · Willie McGee 35
CFRay Lankford 144 · Brian Jordan 13 · Miguel Mejia 11
RFBrian Jordan 128 · Willie McGee 42 · John Mabry 13
SPDonovan Osborne 3.3 · Todd Stottlemyre 2.8 · Andy Benes 2.4 · Alan Benes 0.6 · Mark Petkovsek 0.0
BP★ Dennis Eckersley 30 · T.J. Mathews 0 · Tony Fossas 0 · Rick Honeycutt 0 · Cory Bailey 0 · Danny Jackson 0 · Rich Batchelor 0 · Eric Ludwick 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

1996 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Ray Lankford 29 FA-elig 1495.5 2.4 +2.2
Brian Jordan 29 arb 1405.3 2.5 +1.9
Ron Gant 31 FA-elig 1223.3 4.0 -1.2
Donovan Osborne 27 arb 303.3 0.7 +2.1
Todd Stottlemyre 31 FA-elig 342.8 4.0 -1.6
Andy Benes 28 FA-elig 362.4 3.4 -1.4
Tom Pagnozzi 33 FA-elig 1192.3 2.7 -0.8
Gary Gaetti 37 FA-elig 1412.1 2.0 -0.2
Royce Clayton 26 arb 1291.9 1.6 -0.0
Ozzie Smith 41 FA-elig 821.3 3.5 -2.4
Luis Alicea 30 FA-elig 1291.1 0.8 +0.2
John Mabry 25 pre-arb 1511.1 0.2 +0.7
Rick Honeycutt 42 FA-elig 611.0 0.6 +0.2
T.J. Mathews 26 pre-arb 670.8 0.1 +0.6
Dennis Eckersley 41 FA-elig 630.7 2.2 -1.7
Cory Bailey 25 arb 510.7 0.1 +0.4
Alan Benes 24 pre-arb 340.6 0.1 +0.4
Danny Jackson 34 FA-elig 130.6 4.1 -3.6
Willie McGee 37 FA-elig 1230.6 0.6 -0.1
Jeff Parrett↔ PHI 34 FA-elig 330.5 0.4 -0.0
Mark Sweeney 26 pre-arb 980.4 0.1 +0.2
Rich Batchelor 29 – 110.4 – –
Pat Borders↔ ANA 33 FA-elig 260.3 0.1 +0.1
David Bell 23 pre-arb 620.1 0.1 -0.0
Terry Bradshaw 27 – 150.1 – –
Mike Morgan↔ CIN 36 FA-elig 180.1 1.0 -0.9
Mark Petkovsek 30 arb 480.0 0.1 -0.1
Mike DiFelice 27 – 40.0 – –
Aaron Holbert 23 – 1-0.1 – –
Brian Barber 23 – 1-0.1 – –
Tom Urbani↔ DET 28 arb 5-0.2 0.0 -0.2
Dmitri Young 22 pre-arb 16-0.2 0.1 -0.3
Eric Ludwick 24 pre-arb 6-0.2 0.1 -0.3
Tony Fossas 38 FA-elig 65-0.2 0.7 -0.9
Mike Busby 23 pre-arb 1-0.3 0.1 -0.4
Danny Sheaffer 34 FA-elig 79-0.3 0.3 -0.6
Miguel Mejia 21 pre-arb 45-0.4 0.1 -0.5
Mike Gallego 35 FA-elig 51-0.5 0.3 -0.7

Key additions (new vs 1995)

PlayerfWAR
Ron Gant3.3
Todd Stottlemyre2.8
Andy Benes2.4
Gary Gaetti2.1
Royce Clayton1.9
Luis Alicea1.1

Key subtractions (gone from 1995)

Player1995 fWAR
Bernard Gilkey2.8
Tom Henke1.3
José Oquendo1.0
Todd Zeile0.8
John Habyan0.8
Allen Watson0.7

Current & Historical Payroll

1996 payroll
$39.4M

What the front office was committed to as of 1996, 1996–2002. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (18)

PlayerAgeSvc1996199719981999200020012002
Danny Jackson3413.000$4.1M$3.5MFREE AGENT
Todd Stottlemyre318.000$4.0M$4.1M$3.4MFREE AGENT
Ron Gant319.000$4.0M$4.5M$5.5MFREE AGENT
Ozzie Smith4118.000$3.5MFREE AGENT
Andy Benes287.000$3.4M$4.8MFREE AGENT$2.9M$6.7M$6.4M
Tom Pagnozzi339.000$2.7M$1.6M$2.1MFREE AGENT
Ray Lankford296.000$2.4M$4.5M$4.7M$6.6M$7.6M$5.6MFREE AGENT
Dennis Eckersley4121.000$2.2M$1.6MFREE AGENT
Gary Gaetti3715.000$2.0M$2.1M$711kFREE AGENT
Mike Morgan3618.000$978kFREE AGENT
Luis Alicea308.000$750kFREE AGENT
Tony Fossas388.000$650k$750kFREE AGENT
Willie McGee3714.000$600k$1.3M$1.4M$1.0MFREE AGENT
Rick Honeycutt4219.000$600k$500kFREE AGENT
Jeff Parrett3410.000$437kFREE AGENT
Danny Sheaffer349.000$335k$425kFREE AGENT
Mike Gallego3511.000$300kFREE AGENT
Pat Borders338.000$128kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (7)

PlayerAgeSvc1996199719981999200020012002
Brian Jordan294.000$2.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Royce Clayton265.000$1.6MFREE AGENT
Donovan Osborne274.000$725kARB 3FREE AGENT
Mark Petkovsek305.000$150kFREE AGENT
Cory Bailey253.000$125kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tom Urbani283.000$43kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rich Batchelor293.000—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (13)

PlayerAgeSvc1996199719981999200020012002
John Mabry252.000$200kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
T.J. Mathews261.000$130kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Bell231.000$125kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mark Sweeney261.000$125kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alan Benes241.000$122kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Busby230.000$109kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Miguel Mejia210.000$109kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eric Ludwick240.000$109kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dmitri Young220.000$109kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Barber231.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Terry Bradshaw271.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike DiFelice270.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Aaron Holbert23–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Cardinals 1996; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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Not enough history to chart.

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Pick a wider year range.

'; return; } const s=sm(raw,w),n=s.length,X=s.map(d=>Math.round(d[1]*100)/100),Y=s.map(d=>Math.round(d[2]*10)/10),yr=s.map(d=>d[0]); let xa=Math.min(1,...X),xb=Math.max(1,...X),ya=Math.min(0,...Y),yb=Math.max(0,...Y); const px=(xb-xa)*.12+.04,py=(yb-ya)*.12+1.5;xa-=px;xb+=px;ya-=py;yb+=py; const k=Math.max(0,n-3), ann=[]; [['WINDOW','#15b6a0',xa<1&&yb>0,xa,yb,'left','top'],['CONTEND','#2f7ed8',xb>1&&yb>0,xb,yb,'right','top'], ['FORCED-SPEND','#ec5a3c',xb>1&&ya<0,xb,ya,'right','bottom'],['REBUILD','#f0a91c',xa<1&&ya<0,xa,ya,'left','bottom']].forEach(q=>{ if(q[2]) ann.push({x:q[3],y:q[4],xref:'x',yref:'y',text:q[0],showarrow:false,xanchor:q[5],yanchor:q[6],font:{size:10,color:q[1]},opacity:.85});}); ann.push({x:X[n-1],y:Y[n-1],ax:X[n-1]-0.5*(X[n-1]-X[k]),ay:Y[n-1]-0.5*(Y[n-1]-Y[k]),xref:'x',yref:'y',axref:'x',ayref:'y',showarrow:true,arrowhead:2,arrowsize:1.3,arrowwidth:1.7,arrowcolor:dirc,text:''}); Plotly.newPlot('orbit',[{x:X,y:Y,mode:'lines+markers',line:{color:col,width:2.6,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.7}, marker:{color:col,size:s.map((d,i)=>5+7*(i/Math.max(1,n-1))),line:{color:dark?'#1b1e23':'#fff',width:0.6}}, text:yr,hovertemplate:'%{text}
payroll %{x:.2f}× lg · TAB %{y:+.1f}
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slot %{x} · %{customdata[1]:.1f} WAR
%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'STL',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});