RRosternomics
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Rangers TEX

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President of baseball ops: Jon Daniels

Overview

FORCED-SPEND ↗ rising
expensive & losing · year 3 in this regime · payroll 1.37× league · TAB -8.9
-8.9TAB — talent above budget27th/30
+9.2WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)4th/30
7.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars13th/30
-8.5dead WAR — sub-replacement drag27th/30
40%dead money %20th/30
0.586win %2nd/30
29.0roster fWAR19th/30
-77surplus $M (value vs cost)28th/30
$172Mpayroll $M6th/30

2016: made playoffs · 95–67. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFIan Desmond 130GCarlos Gómez 85GDelino DeShields 33G
LFRyan Rua 60GNomar Mazara 38GIan Desmond 29G
RFNomar Mazara 112GCarlos Beltrán 69GShin-Soo Choo 43G
SSElvis Andrus 147GJurickson Profar 11GHanser Alberto 9G
2BRougned Odor 146GJurickson Profar 19GHanser Alberto 6G
3BAdrian Beltré 141GJurickson Profar 25GHanser Alberto 11G
1BMitch Moreland 139GRyan Rua 31GJurickson Profar 17G
STARTERSCole Hamels 3.3WARYu Darvish 2.9WARMartín Pérez 2.3WARColby Lewis 1.1WARDerek Holland 1.1WAR
CJonathan Lucroy 126GRobinson Chirinos 54GBrett Nicholas 15G
DHPrince Fielder 80GCarlos Beltrán 73GAdrian Beltré 12G
BULLPEN★ Sam Dyson 38svJake Diekman 26hMatt Bush 22hTony Barnette 15hKeone Kela 15hJeremy Jeffress 6hAlex Claudio 2hShawn Tolleson 1h
CJonathan Lucroy 126 · Robinson Chirinos 54 · Brett Nicholas 15
1BMitch Moreland 139 · Ryan Rua 31 · Jurickson Profar 17
2BRougned Odor 146 · Jurickson Profar 19 · Hanser Alberto 6
3BAdrian Beltré 141 · Jurickson Profar 25 · Hanser Alberto 11
SSElvis Andrus 147 · Jurickson Profar 11 · Hanser Alberto 9
LFRyan Rua 60 · Nomar Mazara 38 · Ian Desmond 29
CFIan Desmond 130 · Carlos Gómez 85 · Delino DeShields 33
RFNomar Mazara 112 · Carlos Beltrán 69 · Shin-Soo Choo 43
DHPrince Fielder 80 · Carlos Beltrán 73 · Adrian Beltré 12
SPCole Hamels 3.3 · Yu Darvish 2.9 · Martín Pérez 2.3 · Colby Lewis 1.1 · Derek Holland 1.1
BP★ Sam Dyson 38 · Jake Diekman 26 · Matt Bush 22 · Tony Barnette 15 · Keone Kela 15 · Jeremy Jeffress 6 · Alex Claudio 2 · Shawn Tolleson 1

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2016 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Adrian Beltré 37 FA-elig 1535.2 18.0 -1.2
Elvis Andrus 27 FA-elig 1473.6 15.0 -3.3
Ian Desmond 30 FA-elig 1563.4 8.0 +3.1
Cole Hamels 32 FA-elig 323.3 23.5 -12.9
Yu Darvish 29 arb 172.9 10.0 -0.5
Rougned Odor 22 pre-arb 1502.9 0.5 +8.8
Martín Pérez 25 arb 332.3 2.9 +4.7
Matt Bush 30 – 581.6 0.4 +4.9
Jonathan Lucroy↔ MIL 30 FA-elig 471.5 1.3 +3.4
Sam Dyson 28 arb 731.1 0.5 +3.2
Derek Holland 29 FA-elig 221.1 10.0 -6.3
Colby Lewis 36 FA-elig 191.1 6.0 -2.5
Carlos Gómez↔ HOU 30 FA-elig 331.0 2.5 +0.6
Tony Barnette 32 pre-arb 530.9 1.5 +1.5
Alex Claudio 24 pre-arb 390.9 0.5 +2.3
Jake Diekman 29 arb 660.8 1.3 +1.4
Ryan Rua 26 pre-arb 990.7 0.5 +1.7
Jurickson Profar 23 arb 900.6 0.6 +1.4
Nomar Mazara 21 – 1450.6 0.5 +1.4
Brett Nicholas 27 pre-arb 150.5 0.2 +1.4
Shin-Soo Choo 33 FA-elig 480.4 20.0 -18.6
Tanner Scheppers 29 arb 100.2 0.9 -0.2
Robinson Chirinos 32 arb 570.2 1.6 -0.9
Carlos Beltrán↔ NYY 39 FA-elig 520.2 5.2 -4.5
A.J. Griffin 28 arb 230.2 0.5 +0.0
Jeremy Jeffress↔ MIL 28 FA-elig 120.1 0.1 +0.3
José Leclerc 22 – 120.1 0.1 +0.2
Justin Ruggiano↔ NYM 34 FA-elig 10.1 0.2 -0.0
Chi Chi González 24 – 30.0 0.5 -0.4
Phil Klein↔ PHI 27 pre-arb 80.0 0.3 -0.2
Keone Kela 23 pre-arb 350.0 0.5 -0.4
Drew Stubbs↔ ATL 31 FA-elig 190.0 0.2 -0.1
Yohander Méndez 21 – 2-0.0 0.1 -0.1
Dario Alvarez↔ ATL 27 pre-arb 10-0.1 0.1 -0.2
Lucas Harrell↔ ATL 31 pre-arb 4-0.1 0.1 -0.3
Bobby Wilson↔ DET 33 – 42-0.1 0.2 -0.5
Bryan Holaday↔ BOS 28 arb 30-0.2 0.4 -0.9
Shawn Tolleson 28 arb 37-0.3 3.3 -4.1
Michael Roth 26 pre-arb 1-0.3 0.0 -1.0
Mitch Moreland 30 FA-elig 147-0.3 5.7 -6.6
Anthony Ranaudo↔ CHW 26 – 2-0.3 0.0 -1.0
Kyle Lohse 37 FA-elig 2-0.3 0.0 -1.1
Andrew Faulkner 23 pre-arb 9-0.4 0.5 -1.7
Joey Gallo 22 pre-arb 17-0.4 0.1 -1.4
Delino DeShields 23 pre-arb 74-0.5 0.5 -2.1
Luke Jackson 24 pre-arb 8-0.5 0.1 -1.7
Jared Hoying 27 – 39-0.5 0.2 -1.8
Nick Martinez 25 pre-arb 12-0.6 0.5 -2.4
Hanser Alberto 23 pre-arb 35-0.6 0.5 -2.6
Cesár Ramos 32 – 16-0.6 0.2 -2.3
Tom Wilhelmsen↔ SEA 32 arb 21-0.7 1.3 -3.6
Prince Fielder 32 FA-elig 89-1.9 24.0 -30.2

Key additions (new vs 2015)

PlayerfWAR
Ian Desmond3.4
Yu Darvish2.9
Matt Bush1.6
Jonathan Lucroy1.5
Carlos Gómez1.0
Tony Barnette0.9

Key subtractions (gone from 2015)

Player2015 fWAR
Yovani Gallardo2.7
Wandy Rodriguez1.0
Leonys Martin0.7
Carlos Peguero0.7
Kyle Blanks0.6
Mike Napoli0.3

Current & Historical Payroll

2016 payroll
$171.6M
2017 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2016, 2016–2022. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2016; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (12)

PlayerAgeSvc2016201720182019202020212022
Prince Fielder3210.068$24.0MFREE AGENT
Cole Hamels329.143$23.5MFREE AGENT
Shin-Soo Choo338.119$20.0MFREE AGENT
Adrian Beltré3717.096$18.0MFREE AGENT
Elvis Andrus277.000$15.0MFREE AGENT
Derek Holland296.120$10.0MFREE AGENT
Ian Desmond306.027$8.0MFREE AGENT
Colby Lewis369.132$6.0MFREE AGENT
Carlos Beltrán3917.014$5.2MFREE AGENT
Carlos Gómez308.141$2.5MFREE AGENT
Drew Stubbs316.005$163kFREE AGENT
Kyle Lohse3714.092$47kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (13)

PlayerAgeSvc2016201720182019202020212022
Yu Darvish294.000$10.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Mitch Moreland305.067$5.7MFREE AGENT
Shawn Tolleson283.122$3.3MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Martín Pérez253.038$2.9MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Robinson Chirinos323.102$1.6MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jonathan Lucroy305.136$1.3MFREE AGENT
Tom Wilhelmsen324.091$1.3MARB 3FREE AGENT
Jake Diekman293.050$1.3MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tanner Scheppers293.094$900kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
A.J. Griffin283.034$494kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cesár Ramos325.003$247kFREE AGENT
Justin Ruggiano344.123$183kARB 3FREE AGENT
Bobby Wilson334.058$172kARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (27)

PlayerAgeSvc2016201720182019202020212022
Tony Barnette320.000$1.5MPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jurickson Profar232.167$605kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sam Dyson281.142$525kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rougned Odor221.121$523kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Martinez251.143$519kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Keone Kela231.000$518kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Delino DeShields231.000$517kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Hanser Alberto230.086$511kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alex Claudio240.133$510kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Rua261.008$510kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chi Chi González241.000$509kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andrew Faulkner230.038$508kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nomar Mazara210.000$488kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Bush300.000$397kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bryan Holaday282.025$354kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Phil Klein270.086$340kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jared Hoying270.000$189kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brett Nicholas270.153$153kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
José Leclerc220.000$114kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joey Gallo220.063$109kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeremy Jeffress282.104$106kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luke Jackson240.040$97kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yohander Méndez210.000$86kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Lucas Harrell312.083$81kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dario Alvarez270.151$50kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Anthony Ranaudo260.052$32kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Roth260.086$11kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Rangers 2016; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'TEX',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});