RRosternomics

Blue Jays TOR

GM: Pat Gillick

Overview

CONTEND → steady
expensive & winning · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.01× league · TAB +10.4
+10.4TAB — talent above budget5th/26
+17.4WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)2nd/26
11.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars1st/26
-4.2dead WAR — sub-replacement drag13th/26
25%dead money %12th/26
0.615win %2nd/26
44.5roster fWAR6th/26
+2surplus $M (value vs cost)5th/26
$10Mpayroll $M15th/26

1985: made playoffs · 99–62. Ranks are vs the 26 teams that season.

Roster

CFLloyd Moseby 152GRon Shepherd 13GJesse Barfield 8G
LFGeorge Bell 157GLou Thornton 16GRon Shepherd 3G
RFJesse Barfield 147GLou Thornton 20GRick Leach 3G
SSTony Fernández 160GManuel Lee 7G
2BDámaso García 142GManuel Lee 39GGarth Iorg 23G
3BRance Mulliniks 119GGarth Iorg 105GManuel Lee 5G
1BWillie Upshaw 147GCecil Fielder 25GRick Leach 10G
STARTERSDave Stieb 4.5WARDoyle Alexander 4.0WARJimmy Key 2.8WARJim Clancy 1.6WARTom Filer 0.4WAR
CErnie Whitt 134GBuck Martinez 42GSteve Nicosia 29G
DHCliff Johnson 94GJeff Burroughs 54GAl Oliver 48G
BULLPEN Bill Caudill 14svGary Lavelle 0hJim Acker 0hDennis Lamp 0hTom Henke 0hRon Musselman 0hStan Clarke 0hJohn Cerutti 0h
CErnie Whitt 134 · Buck Martinez 42 · Steve Nicosia 29
1BWillie Upshaw 147 · Cecil Fielder 25 · Rick Leach 10
2BDámaso García 142 · Manuel Lee 39 · Garth Iorg 23
3BRance Mulliniks 119 · Garth Iorg 105 · Manuel Lee 5
SSTony Fernández 160 · Manuel Lee 7
LFGeorge Bell 157 · Lou Thornton 16 · Ron Shepherd 3
CFLloyd Moseby 152 · Ron Shepherd 13 · Jesse Barfield 8
RFJesse Barfield 147 · Lou Thornton 20 · Rick Leach 3
DHCliff Johnson 94 · Jeff Burroughs 54 · Al Oliver 48
SPDave Stieb 4.5 · Doyle Alexander 4.0 · Jimmy Key 2.8 · Jim Clancy 1.6 · Tom Filer 0.4
BP Bill Caudill 14 · Gary Lavelle 0 · Jim Acker 0 · Dennis Lamp 0 · Tom Henke 0 · Ron Musselman 0 · Stan Clarke 0 · John Cerutti 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

1985 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Jesse Barfield 25 arb 1557.0 0.3 +1.5
Dave Stieb 27 FA-elig 364.5 1.0 +0.2
Tony Fernandez 23 pre-arb 1614.1 0.1 +0.9
Doyle Alexander 34 FA-elig 364.0 0.9 +0.2
Lloyd Moseby 25 arb 1523.5 0.6 +0.3
Rance Mulliniks 29 FA-elig 1293.3 0.3 +0.5
George Bell 25 arb 1573.3 0.3 +0.5
Jimmy Key 24 pre-arb 362.8 0.1 +0.6
Ernie Whitt 33 FA-elig 1392.7 0.4 +0.3
Willie Upshaw 28 FA-elig 1482.4 0.7 -0.1
Dennis Lamp 32 FA-elig 532.0 0.5 +0.0
Garth Iorg 30 FA-elig 1311.9 0.3 +0.2
Jim Clancy 29 FA-elig 231.6 0.6 -0.2
Damaso Garcia 28 FA-elig 1461.4 0.7 -0.4
Tom Henke 27 arb 281.1 0.1 +0.2
Gary Lavelle 36 FA-elig 690.8 0.5 -0.3
Cecil Fielder 21 300.7
Ron Musselman 30 250.6
Tom Filer 28 110.4
Jeff Burroughs 34 FA-elig 860.4 0.3 -0.3
Steve Nicosia↔ WSN 29 FA-elig 60.1 0.0 +0.0
Steve Davis 24 100.0
John Cerutti 25 4-0.0
Buck Martinez 36 FA-elig 42-0.1 0.4 -0.4
Jim Acker 26 pre-arb 61-0.1 0.2 -0.2
Jeff Hearron 23 4-0.1
Kelly Gruber 23 5-0.1
Mitch Webster↔ WSN 26 4-0.1
Willie Aikens 30 12-0.1
Stan Clarke 24 4-0.1
Rick Leach 28 16-0.1
Luis Leal 28 15-0.2
Lou Thornton 22 56-0.2
Cliff Johnson↔ TEX 37 FA-elig 24-0.2 0.2 -0.2
Manuel Lee 20 64-0.3
Gary Allenson 30 14-0.3
Ron Shepherd 24 38-0.3
Bill Caudill 28 FA-elig 67-0.3 0.8 -0.9
Al Oliver↔ LAD 38 FA-elig 61-0.7 0.5 -0.6
Len Matuszek↔ LAD 30 arb 62-0.9 0.1 -0.4

Key additions (new vs 1984)

PlayerfWAR
Jesse Barfield7.0
Dave Stieb4.5
Tony Fernandez4.1
Doyle Alexander4.0
Lloyd Moseby3.5
Rance Mulliniks3.3

Key subtractions (gone from 1984)

Player1984 fWAR

Current & Historical Payroll

1985 payroll
$9.9M

What the front office was committed to as of 1985, 1985–1991. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (16)

PlayerAgeSvc1985198619871988198919901991
Dave Stieb276.000$1.0M$1.0M$1.0M$1.0M$1.5M$2.8M$3.0M
Doyle Alexander3414.000$875k$360kFREE AGENT
Bill Caudill286.000$833k$1.5MFREE AGENT
Damaso Garcia287.000$740k$790kFREE AGENT
Willie Upshaw287.000$730k$940k$940kFREE AGENT
Jim Clancy298.000$580k$680k$850k$900kFREE AGENT
Dennis Lamp328.000$517k$567kFREE AGENT
Al Oliver3817.000$477kFREE AGENT
Gary Lavelle3611.000$475kFREE AGENT$50k
Ernie Whitt339.000$370k$325k$750k$750k$800kFREE AGENT
Buck Martinez3616.000$356k$347kFREE AGENT
Jeff Burroughs3415.000$350kFREE AGENT
Rance Mulliniks298.000$325k$256k$475k$600k$650k$520k$725k
Garth Iorg307.000$257k$307k$380kFREE AGENT
Cliff Johnson3713.000$155k$725kFREE AGENT
Steve Nicosia297.000$13kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (7)

PlayerAgeSvc1985198619871988198919901991
Lloyd Moseby255.000$588kFREE AGENT
George Bell254.000$335kARB 3FREE AGENT
Jesse Barfield254.000$325kARB 3FREE AGENT
Len Matuszek304.000$109kARB 3FREE AGENT
Tom Henke273.000$60kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tom Filer283.000ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rick Leach284.000ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (17)

PlayerAgeSvc1985198619871988198919901991
Jim Acker262.000$170kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jimmy Key241.000$131kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tony Fernandez232.000$128kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Willie Aikens30
Gary Allenson30
John Cerutti250.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Stan Clarke24
Steve Davis24
Cecil Fielder210.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kelly Gruber231.000Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeff Hearron23
Luis Leal28
Manuel Lee200.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ron Musselman30
Ron Shepherd241.000Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Lou Thornton22
Mitch Webster262.000ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Blue Jays 1985; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3