RRosternomics
𝕏

Blue Jays TOR

‹ ›

GM: Pat Gillick

Overview

CONTEND → steady
expensive & winning · year 2 in this regime · payroll 1.54× league · TAB +8.0
+8.0TAB — talent above budget7th/28
+7.6WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)7th/28
10.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars5th/28
-3.7dead WAR — sub-replacement drag7th/28
21%dead money %4th/28
0.586win %4th/28
47.4roster fWAR3rd/28
-10surplus $M (value vs cost)23rd/28
$49Mpayroll $M1st/28

1993: World Series champions · 95–67. Ranks are vs the 28 teams that season.

Roster

CFDevon White 145GTurner Ward 10GWillie Cañate 6G
LFRickey Henderson 118GJoe Carter 55GTurner Ward 33G
RFJoe Carter 96GDarrin Jackson 37GTurner Ward 22G
SSTony Fernández 142GDick Schofield 36GAlfredo Griffin 20G
2BRoberto Alomar 150GAlfredo Griffin 11GLuis Sojo 8G
3BEd Sprague Jr. 150GDarnell Coles 16GAlfredo Griffin 6G
1BJohn Olerud 137GPaul Molitor 23GDomingo Martínez 7G
STARTERSJuan Guzmán 4.3WARTodd Stottlemyre 3.0WARPat Hentgen 2.2WARJack Morris 1.7WARDave Stewart 0.9WAR
CPat Borders 138GRandy Knorr 39GCarlos Delgado 1G
DHPaul Molitor 137GJohn Olerud 20GJoe Carter 3G
BULLPEN★ Duane Ward 45svMark Eichhorn 0hMike Timlin 0hTony Castillo 0hDanny Cox 0hWoody Williams 0hHuck Flener 0hScott Brow 0h
CPat Borders 138 · Randy Knorr 39 · Carlos Delgado 1
1BJohn Olerud 137 · Paul Molitor 23 · Domingo Martínez 7
2BRoberto Alomar 150 · Alfredo Griffin 11 · Luis Sojo 8
3BEd Sprague Jr. 150 · Darnell Coles 16 · Alfredo Griffin 6
SSTony Fernández 142 · Dick Schofield 36 · Alfredo Griffin 20
LFRickey Henderson 118 · Joe Carter 55 · Turner Ward 33
CFDevon White 145 · Turner Ward 10 · Willie Cañate 6
RFJoe Carter 96 · Darrin Jackson 37 · Turner Ward 22
DHPaul Molitor 137 · John Olerud 20 · Joe Carter 3
SPJuan Guzmán 4.3 · Todd Stottlemyre 3.0 · Pat Hentgen 2.2 · Jack Morris 1.7 · Dave Stewart 0.9
BP★ Duane Ward 45 · Mark Eichhorn 0 · Mike Timlin 0 · Tony Castillo 0 · Danny Cox 0 · Woody Williams 0 · Huck Flener 0 · Scott Brow 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

1993 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
John Olerud 24 arb 1588.1 1.6 +5.1
Roberto Alomar 25 arb 1535.7 4.9 -0.2
Devon White 30 FA-elig 1465.4 3.7 +0.8
Paul Molitor 36 FA-elig 1604.8 3.6 +0.3
Juan Guzman 26 pre-arb 334.3 0.5 +3.0
Todd Stottlemyre 28 arb 303.0 2.3 +0.2
Tony Fernandez↔ NYM 31 FA-elig 942.8 1.5 +0.8
Duane Ward 29 FA-elig 712.6 3.4 -1.2
Pat Hentgen 24 pre-arb 342.2 0.2 +1.6
Joe Carter 33 FA-elig 1552.0 5.5 -3.9
Jack Morris 38 FA-elig 271.7 5.4 -4.0
Danny Cox 33 FA-elig 441.4 0.6 +0.6
Ed Sprague Jr. 25 pre-arb 1501.4 0.2 +1.0
Mark Eichhorn 32 FA-elig 541.0 0.8 -0.0
Al Leiter 27 FA-elig 340.9 0.3 +0.5
Dave Stewart 36 FA-elig 260.9 4.3 -3.5
Rob Butler 23 pre-arb 170.7 0.1 +0.5
Rickey Henderson↔ OAK 34 FA-elig 440.4 1.2 -0.9
Randy Knorr 24 pre-arb 390.3 0.1 +0.1
Tony Castillo 30 arb 510.3 0.2 +0.1
Dick Schofield 30 FA-elig 360.3 0.8 -0.6
Mike Timlin 27 pre-arb 540.2 0.3 -0.1
Domingo Martinez 27 pre-arb 80.2 0.1 +0.0
Woody Williams 26 pre-arb 300.2 0.1 +0.0
Willie Canate 21 pre-arb 380.1 0.1 +0.0
Huck Flener 24 – 60.0 – –
Doug Linton↔ ANA 28 – 40.0 – –
Carlos Delgado 21 – 20.0 – –
Scott Brow 24 pre-arb 6-0.0 0.1 -0.1
Ken Dayley 34 FA-elig 2-0.0 1.8 -1.8
Shawn Green 20 pre-arb 3-0.1 0.1 -0.2
Pat Borders 30 arb 138-0.2 2.5 -2.6
Turner Ward 28 arb 72-0.4 0.2 -0.5
Luis Sojo 28 arb 19-0.4 0.3 -0.6
Domingo Cedeno 24 pre-arb 15-0.4 0.1 -0.5
Alfredo Griffin 35 FA-elig 46-0.5 0.5 -0.9
Darrin Jackson↔ NYM 29 FA-elig 46-0.8 1.3 -1.9
Darnell Coles 31 FA-elig 64-0.9 0.5 -1.2

Key additions (new vs 1992)

PlayerfWAR
Paul Molitor4.8
Tony Fernandez2.8
Danny Cox1.4
Dave Stewart0.9
Rob Butler0.7
Rickey Henderson0.4

Key subtractions (gone from 1992)

Player1992 fWAR
Dave Winfield3.8
Manuel Lee2.9
Jimmy Key2.7
Candy Maldonado2.3
Jeff Kent1.1
David Cone0.9

Current & Historical Payroll

1993 payroll
$49.1M

What the front office was committed to as of 1993, 1993–1999. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (16)

PlayerAgeSvc1993199419951996199719981999
Joe Carter3310.000$5.5M$5.5M$7.5M$6.5M$6.5MFREE AGENT
Jack Morris3816.000$5.4MFREE AGENT
Dave Stewart3615.000$4.3M$4.2MFREE AGENT
Devon White308.000$3.7M$3.1M$4.0MFREE AGENT
Paul Molitor3615.000$3.6M$4.0M$4.5MFREE AGENT
Duane Ward297.000$3.4MFREE AGENT$4.8M
Ken Dayley3411.000$1.8MFREE AGENT
Tony Fernandez3110.000$1.5MFREE AGENT$2.0M$2.2M
Darrin Jackson298.000$1.3MFREE AGENT
Rickey Henderson3414.000$1.2MFREE AGENT
Mark Eichhorn3211.000$850kFREE AGENT
Dick Schofield3010.000$800k$640kFREE AGENT
Danny Cox3310.000$550k$800k$700kFREE AGENT
Alfredo Griffin3517.000$500kFREE AGENT
Darnell Coles3110.000$500k$500kFREE AGENT
Al Leiter276.000$288k$565k$795kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (7)

PlayerAgeSvc1993199419951996199719981999
Roberto Alomar255.000$4.9MFREE AGENT
Pat Borders305.000$2.5MFREE AGENT
Todd Stottlemyre285.000$2.3MFREE AGENT
John Olerud244.000$1.6MARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Sojo283.000$290kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tony Castillo305.000$185kFREE AGENT
Turner Ward283.000$160kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (15)

PlayerAgeSvc1993199419951996199719981999
Juan Guzman262.000$500kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Timlin272.000$262kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pat Hentgen242.000$182kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ed Sprague Jr.252.000$182kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Randy Knorr242.000$112kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Brow240.000$109kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rob Butler230.000$109kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Domingo Cedeno240.000$109kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Shawn Green200.000$109kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Willie Canate210.000$109kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Domingo Martinez271.000$109kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Woody Williams260.000$109kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carlos Delgado210.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Huck Flener240.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Doug Linton281.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Blue Jays 1993; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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Not enough history to chart.

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Pick a wider year range.

'; return; } const s=sm(raw,w),n=s.length,X=s.map(d=>Math.round(d[1]*100)/100),Y=s.map(d=>Math.round(d[2]*10)/10),yr=s.map(d=>d[0]); let xa=Math.min(1,...X),xb=Math.max(1,...X),ya=Math.min(0,...Y),yb=Math.max(0,...Y); const px=(xb-xa)*.12+.04,py=(yb-ya)*.12+1.5;xa-=px;xb+=px;ya-=py;yb+=py; const k=Math.max(0,n-3), ann=[]; [['WINDOW','#15b6a0',xa<1&&yb>0,xa,yb,'left','top'],['CONTEND','#2f7ed8',xb>1&&yb>0,xb,yb,'right','top'], ['FORCED-SPEND','#ec5a3c',xb>1&&ya<0,xb,ya,'right','bottom'],['REBUILD','#f0a91c',xa<1&&ya<0,xa,ya,'left','bottom']].forEach(q=>{ if(q[2]) ann.push({x:q[3],y:q[4],xref:'x',yref:'y',text:q[0],showarrow:false,xanchor:q[5],yanchor:q[6],font:{size:10,color:q[1]},opacity:.85});}); ann.push({x:X[n-1],y:Y[n-1],ax:X[n-1]-0.5*(X[n-1]-X[k]),ay:Y[n-1]-0.5*(Y[n-1]-Y[k]),xref:'x',yref:'y',axref:'x',ayref:'y',showarrow:true,arrowhead:2,arrowsize:1.3,arrowwidth:1.7,arrowcolor:dirc,text:''}); Plotly.newPlot('orbit',[{x:X,y:Y,mode:'lines+markers',line:{color:col,width:2.6,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.7}, marker:{color:col,size:s.map((d,i)=>5+7*(i/Math.max(1,n-1))),line:{color:dark?'#1b1e23':'#fff',width:0.6}}, text:yr,hovertemplate:'%{text}
payroll %{x:.2f}× lg · TAB %{y:+.1f}
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slot %{x} · %{customdata[1]:.1f} WAR
%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'TOR',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});