RRosternomics
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Blue Jays TOR

‹ ›

GM: Alex Anthopoulos

Overview

CONTEND ↗ rising
expensive & winning · year 2 in this regime · payroll 1.05× league · TAB +15.6
+15.6TAB — talent above budget1st/30
+10.5WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)5th/30
8.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars7th/30
-2.5dead WAR — sub-replacement drag3rd/30
16%dead money %2nd/30
0.574win %5th/30
50.4roster fWAR1st/30
+32surplus $M (value vs cost)6th/30
$128Mpayroll $M10th/30

2015: made playoffs · 93–69. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFKevin Pillar 142GBen Revere 43GDalton Pompey 21G
LFBen Revere 112GEzequiel Carrera 46GChris Colabello 33G
RFJosé Bautista 118GEzequiel Carrera 35GChris Colabello 13G
SSTroy Tulowitzki 121GRyan Goins 58GCliff Pennington 29G
2BRyan Goins 66GDevon Travis 62GCliff Pennington 33G
3BJosh Donaldson 150GCliff Pennington 18GMunenori Kawasaki 3G
1BJustin Smoak 110GEdwin Encarnación 59GChris Colabello 34G
STARTERSDavid Price 2.6WARMark Buehrle 2.0WARMarco Estrada 1.9WARR.A. Dickey 1.8WARDrew Hutchison 1.4WAR
CRussell Martin 117GDioner Navarro 39GJosh Thole 18G
DHEdwin Encarnación 85GJosé Bautista 33GChris Colabello 12G
BULLPEN★ Roberto Osuna 20svMark Lowe 17hAaron Loup 9hBrett Cecil 9hLiam Hendriks 7hLaTroy Hawkins 7hSteve Delabar 5hRyan Tepera 0h
CRussell Martin 117 · Dioner Navarro 39 · Josh Thole 18
1BJustin Smoak 110 · Edwin Encarnación 59 · Chris Colabello 34
2BRyan Goins 66 · Devon Travis 62 · Cliff Pennington 33
3BJosh Donaldson 150 · Cliff Pennington 18 · Munenori Kawasaki 3
SSTroy Tulowitzki 121 · Ryan Goins 58 · Cliff Pennington 29
LFBen Revere 112 · Ezequiel Carrera 46 · Chris Colabello 33
CFKevin Pillar 142 · Ben Revere 43 · Dalton Pompey 21
RFJosé Bautista 118 · Ezequiel Carrera 35 · Chris Colabello 13
DHEdwin Encarnación 85 · José Bautista 33 · Chris Colabello 12
SPDavid Price 2.6 · Mark Buehrle 2.0 · Marco Estrada 1.9 · R.A. Dickey 1.8 · Drew Hutchison 1.4
BP★ Roberto Osuna 20 · Mark Lowe 17 · Aaron Loup 9 · Brett Cecil 9 · Liam Hendriks 7 · LaTroy Hawkins 7 · Steve Delabar 5 · Ryan Tepera 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2015 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Josh Donaldson 29 arb 1588.7 4.3 +23.2
José Bautista 34 FA-elig 1535.2 14.0 +2.4
Edwin Encarnación 32 FA-elig 1464.5 10.0 +4.3
Russell Martin 32 FA-elig 1294.5 7.0 +7.1
Kevin Pillar 26 pre-arb 1593.7 0.5 +11.2
David Price↔ DET 29 FA-elig 112.6 6.8 +1.3
Devon Travis 24 – 622.2 0.5 +6.4
Mark Buehrle 36 FA-elig 322.0 20.0 -13.7
Marco Estrada 31 FA-elig 341.9 3.9 +2.1
R.A. Dickey 40 FA-elig 331.8 12.0 -6.4
Liam Hendriks 26 arb 581.5 0.5 +4.3
Chris Colabello 31 pre-arb 1011.4 0.4 +4.0
Drew Hutchison 24 arb 311.4 0.5 +3.8
Brett Cecil 28 FA-elig 631.3 2.5 +1.7
Danny Valencia↔ OAK 30 arb 581.3 0.9 +3.2
Roberto Osuna 20 – 681.3 0.5 +3.6
Ryan Goins 27 pre-arb 1281.3 0.5 +3.5
Troy Tulowitzki↔ COL 30 FA-elig 411.2 6.4 -2.6
José Reyes↔ COL 32 FA-elig 691.0 13.1 -10.1
Ben Revere↔ PHI 27 arb 560.7 1.5 +0.8
Justin Smoak 28 arb 1320.7 1.0 +1.1
Marcus Stroman 24 pre-arb 40.4 0.5 +0.8
Félix Doubront↔ OAK 27 – 50.4 0.1 +1.2
LaTroy Hawkins↔ COL 42 FA-elig 180.3 1.0 -0.2
Scott Copeland 27 – 50.2 0.0 +0.7
Aaron Sanchez 22 pre-arb 410.2 1.0 -0.3
Dioner Navarro 31 FA-elig 540.2 5.0 -4.3
Aaron Loup 27 arb 600.2 0.5 +0.1
Steve Tolleson 31 arb 190.2 0.5 +0.0
Mark Lowe↔ SEA 32 FA-elig 230.1 0.2 +0.3
Ezequiel Carrera 28 pre-arb 910.1 0.4 -0.0
Darwin Barney↔ LAD 29 arb 150.1 2.2 -1.9
Munenori Kawasaki 34 pre-arb 230.1 0.2 +0.1
Daniel Norris↔ DET 22 pre-arb 50.1 0.2 +0.0
Dalton Pompey 22 pre-arb 340.1 0.5 -0.3
Colt Hynes 30 pre-arb 50.0 0.5 -0.4
Rob Rasmussen↔ SEA 26 – 10.0 0.0 +0.0
Michael Saunders 28 FA-elig 90.0 2.9 -2.9
Matt Hague 29 pre-arb 10-0.0 0.1 -0.2
Jonathan Diaz 30 pre-arb 7-0.1 0.0 -0.2
Jeff Francis 34 FA-elig 14-0.1 0.2 -0.4
Chad Jenkins 27 pre-arb 2-0.1 0.1 -0.3
Phil Coke↔ CHC 32 FA-elig 2-0.1 0.2 -0.5
Todd Redmond 30 arb 7-0.1 0.5 -0.9
Miguel Castro↔ COL 20 – 13-0.1 0.1 -0.5
Andrew Albers 29 pre-arb 1-0.2 0.0 -0.5
Josh Thole 28 FA-elig 18-0.2 1.8 -2.4
Cliff Pennington↔ ARI 31 FA-elig 33-0.2 1.0 -1.7
Steve Delabar 31 pre-arb 31-0.2 0.3 -1.0
Bo Schultz 29 – 31-0.3 0.4 -1.3
Matthew Boyd↔ DET 24 – 2-0.4 0.0 -1.2
Ryan Tepera 27 – 32-0.5 0.3 -1.7

Key additions (new vs 2014)

PlayerfWAR
Josh Donaldson8.7
Russell Martin4.5
David Price2.6
Devon Travis2.2
Marco Estrada1.9
Chris Colabello1.4

Key subtractions (gone from 2014)

Player2014 fWAR
Melky Cabrera3.1
Adam Lind1.7
Brett Lawrie1.6
Colby Rasmus1.5
J.A. Happ1.2
Juan Francisco1.2

Current & Historical Payroll

2015 payroll
$127.5M
2016 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2015, 2015–2021. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2015; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (12)

PlayerAgeSvc2015201620172018201920202021
Mark Buehrle3614.078$20.0MFREE AGENT
José Bautista349.165$14.0MFREE AGENT
José Reyes3211.111$13.1MFREE AGENT
R.A. Dickey4010.007$12.0MFREE AGENT
Edwin Encarnación329.085$10.0MFREE AGENT
Russell Martin328.150$7.0MFREE AGENT
Troy Tulowitzki308.033$6.4MFREE AGENT
Dioner Navarro318.091$5.0MFREE AGENT
LaTroy Hawkins4218.054$964kFREE AGENT
Phil Coke326.028$250kFREE AGENT
Mark Lowe327.005$157kFREE AGENT
Jeff Francis349.036$154kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (12)

PlayerAgeSvc2015201620172018201920202021
David Price295.164$6.8MFREE AGENT
Marco Estrada315.035$3.9MFREE AGENT
Michael Saunders284.138$2.9MARB 3FREE AGENT
Brett Cecil284.152$2.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Darwin Barney294.053$2.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Thole284.085$1.8MARB 3FREE AGENT
Ben Revere273.149$1.5MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cliff Pennington315.114$1.0MFREE AGENT
Justin Smoak284.077$1.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Danny Valencia303.118$925kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bo Schultz293.085$355kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Félix Doubront273.120$56kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (28)

PlayerAgeSvc2015201620172018201920202021
Josh Donaldson292.158$4.3MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Aaron Sanchez220.069$1.0MPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Aaron Loup272.083$528kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Drew Hutchison242.128$520kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Todd Redmond301.129$520kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Liam Hendriks261.000$518kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Steve Tolleson311.140$517kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Marcus Stroman240.147$515kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Goins270.166$513kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kevin Pillar260.113$512kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Colt Hynes300.078$511kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dalton Pompey220.027$508kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Devon Travis240.000$507kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Roberto Osuna200.000$507kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Colabello312.089$422kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ezequiel Carrera281.069$391kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Steve Delabar312.097$297kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Tepera270.000$297kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Daniel Norris221.000$196kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Munenori Kawasaki342.073$175kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Hague290.060$86kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chad Jenkins271.057$72kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Miguel Castro200.000$66kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Copeland270.000$42kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jonathan Diaz300.041$31kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matthew Boyd240.000$26kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rob Rasmussen260.096$9kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andrew Albers290.058$3kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Blue Jays 2015; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'TOR',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});