RRosternomics
𝕏

Blue Jays TOR

‹ ›

GM: Ross Atkins

Overview

CONTEND → steady
expensive & winning · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.6× league · TAB +4.5
+4.5TAB — talent above budget10th/30
+6.2WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)10th/30
9.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars4th/30
-4.6dead WAR — sub-replacement drag14th/30
30%dead money %19th/30
0.580win %3rd/30
44.3roster fWAR7th/30
-71surplus $M (value vs cost)23rd/30
$248Mpayroll $M4th/30

2025: won pennant · 94–68. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFMyles Straw 88GDaulton Varsho 68GNathan Lukes 36G
LFDavis Schneider 59GNathan Lukes 42GMyles Straw 40G
RFNathan Lukes 81GAddison Barger 57GGeorge Springer 44G
SSBo Bichette 132GIsiah Kiner-Falefa 95GErnie Clement 29G
2BAndrés Giménez 87GErnie Clement 60GDavis Schneider 24G
3BAddison Barger 91GErnie Clement 89GIsiah Kiner-Falefa 32G
1BVladimir Guerrero Jr. 133GTy France 124GErnie Clement 15G
STARTERSKevin Gausman 4.1WARChris Bassitt 2.4WAREric Lauer 1.4WARJosé Berríos 1.3WARMax Scherzer 0.4WAR
CAlejandro Kirk 118GTyler Heineman 61G
DHGeorge Springer 82GAnthony Santander 30GVladimir Guerrero Jr. 24G
BULLPEN★ Jeff Hoffman 33svBrendon Little 30hLouis Varland 22hSeranthony Domínguez 20hYariel Rodríguez 14hChad Green 7hMason Fluharty 6hBraydon Fisher 5h
CAlejandro Kirk 118 · Tyler Heineman 61
1BVladimir Guerrero Jr. 133 · Ty France 124 · Ernie Clement 15
2BAndrés Giménez 87 · Ernie Clement 60 · Davis Schneider 24
3BAddison Barger 91 · Ernie Clement 89 · Isiah Kiner-Falefa 32
SSBo Bichette 132 · Isiah Kiner-Falefa 95 · Ernie Clement 29
LFDavis Schneider 59 · Nathan Lukes 42 · Myles Straw 40
CFMyles Straw 88 · Daulton Varsho 68 · Nathan Lukes 36
RFNathan Lukes 81 · Addison Barger 57 · George Springer 44
DHGeorge Springer 82 · Anthony Santander 30 · Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 24
SPKevin Gausman 4.1 · Chris Bassitt 2.4 · Eric Lauer 1.4 · José Berríos 1.3 · Max Scherzer 0.4
BP★ Jeff Hoffman 33 · Brendon Little 30 · Louis Varland 22 · Seranthony Domínguez 20 · Yariel Rodríguez 14 · Chad Green 7 · Mason Fluharty 6 · Braydon Fisher 5

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2025 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
George Springer 35 FA-elig 1405.2 24.2 -3.5
Alejandro Kirk 26 arb 1304.7 4.6 +14.1
Kevin Gausman 34 FA-elig 324.1 23.0 -6.6
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 26 – 1563.9 28.5 -13.0
Bo Bichette 27 arb 1393.8 17.6 -2.3
Ernie Clement 29 pre-arb 1573.2 2.0 +10.9
Chris Bassitt 36 FA-elig 322.4 22.0 -12.3
Daulton Varsho 28 arb 712.2 8.2 +0.6
Addison Barger 25 pre-arb 1352.2 0.7 +8.0
Tyler Heineman 34 pre-arb 642.0 0.8 +7.1
Nathan Lukes 30 pre-arb 1351.8 0.8 +6.5
Myles Straw 30 arb 1371.8 6.4 +0.7
Eric Lauer 30 arb 281.4 1.9 +3.6
Davis Schneider 26 pre-arb 821.3 0.7 +4.5
José Berríos 31 FA-elig 311.3 19.0 -13.8
Brendon Little 28 pre-arb 791.3 0.8 +4.3
Andrés Giménez 26 arb 1011.0 10.6 -6.4
Braydon Fisher 24 – 520.8 0.5 +2.7
Tommy Nance 34 pre-arb 300.8 0.3 +2.7
Joey Loperfido 26 pre-arb 410.7 0.3 +2.6
Trey Yesavage 21 – 30.4 0.1 +1.7
Max Scherzer 40 FA-elig 170.4 15.5 -13.9
Seranthony Domínguez↔ BAL 30 FA-elig 240.3 2.5 -1.3
Shane Bieber 30 FA-elig 70.3 3.2 -2.0
Ty France↔ MIN 30 arb 370.2 0.2 +0.7
Louis Varland↔ MIN 27 – 230.2 – –
Alan Roden↔ MIN 25 – 430.2 0.3 +0.5
Mason Fluharty 23 – 550.2 0.6 +0.2
Josh Walker 30 – 30.1 0.1 +0.4
Paxton Schultz 27 – 130.1 0.4 +0.2
Yimi García 34 FA-elig 220.1 7.5 -7.0
Yariel Rodríguez 28 pre-arb 660.1 7.0 -6.6
Ali Sánchez↔ BOS 28 – 80.1 0.1 +0.2
Ryan Burr 31 pre-arb 20.1 0.8 -0.5
Nick Sandlin 28 arb 190.0 1.6 -1.4
Ryan Borucki↔ PIT 31 FA-elig 40.0 0.1 -0.0
Casey Lawrence↔ SEA 37 – 10.0 0.0 +0.1
Justin Bruihl 28 pre-arb 150.0 0.2 -0.2
Jacob Barnes 35 FA-elig 60.0 0.2 -0.2
Robinson Piña↔ MIA 26 – 10.0 0.1 -0.1
Michael Stefanic 29 – 9-0.0 – –
Buddy Kennedy↔ LAD 26 – 2-0.0 0.0 -0.2
Isiah Kiner-Falefa↔ PIT 30 – 19-0.0 0.7 -0.9
Easton Lucas 28 pre-arb 6-0.0 0.2 -0.4
Richard Lovelady↔ NYM 29 – 2-0.1 0.2 -0.5
Will Robertson↔ CHW 27 – 3-0.1 0.0 -0.3
Spencer Turnbull 32 – 3-0.1 1.0 -1.3
Lazaro Estrada 26 – 2-0.1 0.1 -0.4
Dillon Tate 31 arb 6-0.1 0.3 -0.7
José Ureña↔ ANA 33 – 6-0.1 0.1 -0.4
Will Wagner↔ SDP 26 – 40-0.1 0.2 -0.8
Erik Swanson 31 – 6-0.2 3.0 -4.0
Jonatan Clase 23 pre-arb 34-0.3 0.3 -1.4
Leo Jiménez 24 – 18-0.3 – –
Jeff Hoffman 32 FA-elig 71-0.4 8.2 -9.7
Bowden Francis 29 pre-arb 14-0.8 0.8 -4.1
Chad Green 34 – 45-0.9 10.5 -14.2
Anthony Santander 30 FA-elig 54-0.9 9.1 -12.9

Key additions (new vs 2024)

PlayerfWAR
Myles Straw1.8
Eric Lauer1.4
Andrés Giménez1.0
Braydon Fisher0.8
Trey Yesavage0.4
Max Scherzer0.4

Key subtractions (gone from 2024)

Player2024 fWAR
Yusei Kikuchi2.2
Spencer Horwitz1.9
Danny Jansen0.5
Justin Turner0.5
Cavan Biggio0.4
Kevin Kiermaier0.3

Current & Historical Payroll

2025 payroll
$248.0M
2026 guaranteed
$144.1M

What the front office was committed to as of 2025, 2025–2031. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2025; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (20)

PlayerAgeSvc2025202620272028202920302031
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.266.000$28.5MFREE AGENT
George Springer3510.166$24.2M$24.2MFREE AGENT
Kevin Gausman3410.151$23.0M$23.0MFREE AGENT
Chris Bassitt368.130$22.0MFREE AGENT
José Berríos318.044$19.0M$19.0M$24.0M$24.0MFREE AGENT
Max Scherzer4016.079$15.5MFREE AGENT
Andrés Giménez264.106$10.6M$15.6M$23.6M$23.6M$23.6M$23.0MCLUBFREE AGENT
Chad Green348.050$10.5MFREE AGENT
Anthony Santander306.162$9.1M$11.8M$11.5M$9.5MOPT-OUT$7.2M$15.0MCLUBFREE AGENT
Jeff Hoffman326.084$8.2M$12.7M$12.7MFREE AGENT
Yimi García349.149$7.5M$7.5MFREE AGENT
Yariel Rodríguez280.170$7.0M$7.0M$8.0M$6.3MPLAYERARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Myles Straw304.125$6.4M$7.4M$8.0MCLUB$8.5MCLUBFREE AGENT
Shane Bieber306.097$3.2M$16.0MPLAYERFREE AGENT
Seranthony Domínguez306.131$2.5MCLUBFREE AGENT
Spencer Turnbull326.020$1.0MFREE AGENT
Isiah Kiner-Falefa307.000$710kFREE AGENT
Jacob Barnes356.100$203kFREE AGENT
Ryan Borucki316.066$107kFREE AGENT
José Ureña338.045$74kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (10)

PlayerAgeSvc2025202620272028202920302031
Bo Bichette275.063$17.6MFREE AGENT
Daulton Varsho284.128$8.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Alejandro Kirk264.047$4.6MARB 3FREE AGENT
Erik Swanson315.096$3.0MFREE AGENT
Eric Lauer304.111$1.9MARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Sandlin283.157$1.6MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dillon Tate314.144$301kARB 3FREE AGENT
Richard Lovelady293.008$200kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ty France305.089$183kFREE AGENT
Louis Varland273.000—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (28)

PlayerAgeSvc2025202620272028202920302031
Ernie Clement292.168$2.0MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Burr312.109$786kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bowden Francis291.098$782kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Heineman342.066$780kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brendon Little280.135$772kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nathan Lukes300.145$767kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Addison Barger250.103$711kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Davis Schneider261.059$681kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mason Fluharty230.000$565kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Braydon Fisher240.000$541kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Paxton Schultz270.000$350kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tommy Nance342.082$348kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joey Loperfido260.131$336kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jonatan Clase230.052$315kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alan Roden250.000$259kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin Bruihl281.071$244kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Will Wagner260.049$229kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Easton Lucas280.047$213kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Walker300.108$105kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Robinson Piña26–$105k
Lazaro Estrada260.000$68kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ali Sánchez281.000$66kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Trey Yesavage210.000$57kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Will Robertson27–$23k
Casey Lawrence371.064$22kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Buddy Kennedy260.131$15kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Leo Jiménez24–—
Michael Stefanic291.093—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Blue Jays 2025; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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Not enough history to chart.

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Pick a wider year range.

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slot %{x} · %{customdata[1]:.1f} WAR
%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'TOR',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});