RRosternomics
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Nationals WSN

‹ ›

GM: Michael Rizzo

Overview

CONTEND ↗ rising
expensive & winning · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.23× league · TAB +13.5
+13.5TAB — talent above budget1st/30
+11.5WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)3rd/30
9.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars5th/30
-2.2dead WAR — sub-replacement drag2nd/30
13%dead money %2nd/30
0.593win %2nd/30
50.2roster fWAR2nd/30
+7surplus $M (value vs cost)10th/30
$139Mpayroll $M7th/30

2014: made playoffs · 96–66. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFDenard Span 147GMichael A. Taylor 10GNate McLouth 9G
LFBryce Harper 90GRyan Zimmerman 30GNate McLouth 28G
RFJayson Werth 139GNate Schierholtz 87GNate McLouth 16G
SSIan Desmond 154GAsdrúbal Cabrera 93GDanny Espinosa 12G
2BDanny Espinosa 89GAsdrúbal Cabrera 48GAnthony Rendon 28G
3BAnthony Rendon 134GRyan Zimmerman 23GKevin Frandsen 16G
1BAdam LaRoche 136GTyler Moore 24GKevin Frandsen 9G
STARTERSJordan Zimmermann 5.7WARStephen Strasburg 4.6WARTanner Roark 3.1WARGio Gonzalez 3.1WARDoug Fister 1.2WAR
CWilson Ramos 87GJose Lobatón 64GSandy León 20G
DHJayson Werth 5GRyan Zimmerman 2GAdam LaRoche 1G
BULLPEN★ Rafael Soriano 32svTyler Clippard 40hDrew Storen 20hMatt Thornton 18hJerry Blevins 9hAaron Barrett 8hCraig Stammen 7hRoss Detwiler 3h
CWilson Ramos 87 · Jose Lobatón 64 · Sandy León 20
1BAdam LaRoche 136 · Tyler Moore 24 · Kevin Frandsen 9
2BDanny Espinosa 89 · Asdrúbal Cabrera 48 · Anthony Rendon 28
3BAnthony Rendon 134 · Ryan Zimmerman 23 · Kevin Frandsen 16
SSIan Desmond 154 · Asdrúbal Cabrera 93 · Danny Espinosa 12
LFBryce Harper 90 · Ryan Zimmerman 30 · Nate McLouth 28
CFDenard Span 147 · Michael A. Taylor 10 · Nate McLouth 9
RFJayson Werth 139 · Nate Schierholtz 87 · Nate McLouth 16
DHJayson Werth 5 · Ryan Zimmerman 2 · Adam LaRoche 1
SPJordan Zimmermann 5.7 · Stephen Strasburg 4.6 · Tanner Roark 3.1 · Gio Gonzalez 3.1 · Doug Fister 1.2
BP★ Rafael Soriano 32 · Tyler Clippard 40 · Drew Storen 20 · Matt Thornton 18 · Jerry Blevins 9 · Aaron Barrett 8 · Craig Stammen 7 · Ross Detwiler 3

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2014 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Anthony Rendon 24 pre-arb 1536.4 1.8 +16.9
Jordan Zimmermann 28 arb 325.7 7.5 +9.1
Jayson Werth 35 FA-elig 1475.3 20.0 -4.6
Stephen Strasburg 25 arb 344.6 4.0 +9.6
Denard Span 30 FA-elig 1474.3 6.5 +5.9
Ian Desmond 28 arb 1544.1 6.5 +5.6
Tanner Roark 27 pre-arb 313.1 0.5 +8.6
Gio Gonzalez 28 FA-elig 273.1 8.5 +0.6
Adam LaRoche 34 FA-elig 1402.0 12.0 -6.1
Bryce Harper 21 pre-arb 1001.6 2.1 +2.6
Tyler Clippard 29 FA-elig 751.5 5.9 -1.4
Doug Fister 30 arb 261.2 7.2 -3.7
Ryan Zimmerman 29 FA-elig 611.2 14.0 -10.6
Asdrúbal Cabrera↔ CLE 28 FA-elig 491.0 3.4 -0.5
Drew Storen 26 arb 651.0 3.5 -0.6
Wilson Ramos 26 arb 881.0 2.1 +0.8
Jerry Blevins 30 FA-elig 640.8 1.7 +0.7
Rafael Soriano 34 FA-elig 640.8 11.0 -8.8
Craig Stammen 30 arb 490.7 1.4 +0.8
Aaron Barrett 26 – 500.7 0.4 +1.6
Blake Treinen 26 – 150.6 0.2 +1.7
Danny Espinosa 27 arb 1140.6 0.5 +1.2
Jose Lobatón 29 arb 660.5 0.9 +0.5
Zach Walters↔ CLE 24 – 320.2 0.1 +0.5
Matt Thornton↔ NYY 37 FA-elig 180.2 1.0 -0.5
Taylor Hill 25 – 30.1 – –
Taylor Jordan 25 pre-arb 50.1 0.5 -0.2
Tyler Moore 27 pre-arb 420.1 0.5 -0.3
Jeff Kobernus 26 pre-arb 40.0 0.5 -0.5
Xavier Cedeño 27 arb 90.0 0.5 -0.5
Ryan Mattheus 30 arb 7-0.0 0.5 -0.6
Michael A. Taylor 23 – 17-0.1 0.1 -0.3
Ross Detwiler 28 FA-elig 47-0.1 3.0 -3.3
Steven Souza Jr. 25 – 21-0.1 0.2 -0.5
Nate McLouth 32 FA-elig 79-0.1 5.0 -5.4
Nate Schierholtz↔ CHC 30 FA-elig 23-0.2 0.9 -1.4
Sandy León 25 pre-arb 20-0.2 0.5 -1.1
Greg Dobbs↔ MIA 35 FA-elig 21-0.3 1.0 -2.0
Kevin Frandsen 32 FA-elig 105-0.5 0.9 -2.3
Scott Hairston 34 FA-elig 61-0.6 2.5 -4.2

Key additions (new vs 2013)

PlayerfWAR
Doug Fister1.2
Asdrúbal Cabrera1.0
Jerry Blevins0.8
Aaron Barrett0.7
Blake Treinen0.6
Jose Lobatón0.5

Key subtractions (gone from 2013)

Player2013 fWAR
Dan Haren1.8
Fernando Abad0.4
Corey Brown0.1
Zach Duke-0.0
Eury Pérez-0.0
David DeJesus-0.1

Current & Historical Payroll

2014 payroll
$139.2M

What the front office was committed to as of 2014, 2014–2020. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (9)

PlayerAgeSvc2014201520162017201820192020
Jayson Werth3510.102$20.0M$21.0M$21.0M$21.0MFREE AGENT
Ryan Zimmerman298.032$14.0M$14.0M$14.0M$14.0M$14.0M$18.0MFREE AGENT
Adam LaRoche3410.000$12.0MFREE AGENT
Rafael Soriano3411.057$11.0MFREE AGENT
Nate McLouth327.152$5.0MFREE AGENT
Asdrúbal Cabrera286.027$3.4MFREE AGENT$2.5M$2.5M
Scott Hairston348.102$2.5MFREE AGENT
Greg Dobbs3510.000$992kFREE AGENT
Matt Thornton379.129$984k$3.5MFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (15)

PlayerAgeSvc2014201520162017201820192020
Gio Gonzalez284.162$8.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Jordan Zimmermann284.154$7.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Doug Fister304.058$7.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Denard Span305.111$6.5MFREE AGENT
Ian Desmond284.027$6.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Clippard294.148$5.9MARB 3FREE AGENT
Stephen Strasburg253.118$4.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Drew Storen263.140$3.5MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ross Detwiler284.002$3.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Wilson Ramos263.047$2.1MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jerry Blevins304.081$1.7MARB 3FREE AGENT
Craig Stammen303.160$1.4MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nate Schierholtz305.078$943kFREE AGENT
Kevin Frandsen324.151$900kARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Mattheus303.123$520kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (16)

PlayerAgeSvc2014201520162017201820192020
Bryce Harper211.159$2.1MPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Anthony Rendon240.130$1.8MPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jose Lobatón292.138$900kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Danny Espinosa272.113$541kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Moore271.106$508kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Xavier Cedeño271.019$508kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tanner Roark270.055$506kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Taylor Jordan251.047$504kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeff Kobernus260.162$501kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sandy León250.131$501kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Aaron Barrett260.000$352kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Steven Souza Jr.250.000$197kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Blake Treinen260.000$178kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael A. Taylor230.000$101kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zach Walters240.027$71kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Taylor Hill250.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Nationals 2014; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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Not enough history to chart.

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Pick a wider year range.

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slot %{x} · %{customdata[1]:.1f} WAR
%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'WSN',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});