RRosternomics
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Nationals WSN

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GM: Michael Rizzo

Overview

CONTEND ↗ rising
expensive & winning · year 6 in this regime · payroll 1.57× league · TAB +10.5
+10.5TAB — talent above budget7th/30
+5.4WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)11th/30
10.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars5th/30
-4.5dead WAR — sub-replacement drag13th/30
21%dead money %5th/30
0.574win %8th/30
50.1roster fWAR4th/30
-39surplus $M (value vs cost)19th/30
$203Mpayroll $M4th/30

2019: World Series champions · 93–69. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFVictor Robles 141GMichael A. Taylor 25GGerardo Parra 12G
LFJuan Soto 150GGerardo Parra 24GAdam Eaton 7G
RFAdam Eaton 139GGerardo Parra 34GVictor Robles 15G
SSTrea Turner 122GWilmer Difo 33GCarter Kieboom 10G
2BBrian Dozier 123GAsdrúbal Cabrera 31GHowie Kendrick 23G
3BAnthony Rendon 146GAsdrúbal Cabrera 98GHowie Kendrick 15G
1BMatt Adams 79GHowie Kendrick 48GRyan Zimmerman 44G
STARTERSMax Scherzer 6.5WARStephen Strasburg 5.8WARPatrick Corbin 4.4WARAníbal Sánchez 2.2WARAustin Voth 0.9WAR
CYan Gomes 93GKurt Suzuki 75GRaudy Read 4G
DHHowie Kendrick 7GRyan Zimmerman 3G
BULLPEN★ Sean Doolittle 29svWander Suero 19hFernando Rodney 17hDaniel Hudson 11hTanner Rainey 9hJavy Guerra 5hMatt Grace 4hRoenis Elías 2h
CYan Gomes 93 · Kurt Suzuki 75 · Raudy Read 4
1BMatt Adams 79 · Howie Kendrick 48 · Ryan Zimmerman 44
2BBrian Dozier 123 · Asdrúbal Cabrera 31 · Howie Kendrick 23
3BAnthony Rendon 146 · Asdrúbal Cabrera 98 · Howie Kendrick 15
SSTrea Turner 122 · Wilmer Difo 33 · Carter Kieboom 10
LFJuan Soto 150 · Gerardo Parra 24 · Adam Eaton 7
CFVictor Robles 141 · Michael A. Taylor 25 · Gerardo Parra 12
RFAdam Eaton 139 · Gerardo Parra 34 · Victor Robles 15
DHHowie Kendrick 7 · Ryan Zimmerman 3
SPMax Scherzer 6.5 · Stephen Strasburg 5.8 · Patrick Corbin 4.4 · Aníbal Sánchez 2.2 · Austin Voth 0.9
BP★ Sean Doolittle 29 · Wander Suero 19 · Fernando Rodney 17 · Daniel Hudson 11 · Tanner Rainey 9 · Javy Guerra 5 · Matt Grace 4 · Roenis Elías 2

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2019 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Anthony Rendon 29 FA-elig 1466.8 18.8 +3.4
Max Scherzer 34 FA-elig 296.5 37.5 -16.1
Stephen Strasburg 30 FA-elig 345.8 38.3 -19.3
Juan Soto 20 pre-arb 1505.4 0.6 +17.2
Patrick Corbin 29 FA-elig 334.4 12.9 +1.5
Trea Turner 26 arb 1224.4 3.7 +10.6
Victor Robles 22 pre-arb 1553.6 0.6 +11.3
Howie Kendrick 35 FA-elig 1212.8 4.0 +5.0
Aníbal Sánchez 35 FA-elig 302.2 6.0 +1.1
Adam Eaton 30 FA-elig 1512.0 8.4 -1.7
Asdrúbal Cabrera↔ TEX 33 FA-elig 381.5 1.0 +4.0
Brian Dozier 32 FA-elig 1351.5 9.0 -4.0
Wander Suero 27 pre-arb 781.5 0.6 +4.2
Austin Voth 27 pre-arb 90.9 0.3 +2.8
Yan Gomes 31 FA-elig 970.9 7.1 -4.3
Sean Doolittle 32 FA-elig 630.7 6.0 -3.8
Joe Ross 26 arb 280.6 1.0 +1.1
Kurt Suzuki 35 FA-elig 850.5 4.0 -2.3
Daniel Hudson↔ TOR 32 FA-elig 240.5 0.5 +1.1
Fernando Rodney↔ OAK 42 FA-elig 380.5 3.6 -2.1
Andrew Stevenson 25 pre-arb 300.4 0.6 +0.6
Tony Sipp 35 FA-elig 360.3 1.0 +0.0
Gerardo Parra↔ SFG 32 FA-elig 890.3 0.3 +0.7
Michael A. Taylor 28 arb 530.2 3.2 -2.7
Tanner Rainey 26 pre-arb 520.2 0.4 +0.1
Javy Guerra↔ TOR 33 FA-elig 400.2 0.6 -0.1
Erick Fedde 26 pre-arb 210.1 0.4 -0.1
Jonny Venters↔ ATL 34 FA-elig 30.0 0.6 -0.4
Ryan Zimmerman 34 FA-elig 520.0 18.0 -18.0
Jeremy Hellickson 32 FA-elig 9-0.0 1.3 -1.4
Austin Adams↔ SEA 28 – 1-0.0 0.0 -0.1
James Bourque 25 – 1-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Wilmer Difo 27 arb 43-0.0 0.6 -0.7
Tres Barrera 24 – 2-0.0 0.1 -0.2
Michael Blazek 30 pre-arb 4-0.1 0.0 -0.3
Dan Jennings 32 – 8-0.1 0.1 -0.5
Aaron Barrett 31 arb 3-0.1 0.1 -0.5
Jake Noll 25 pre-arb 8-0.1 0.6 -1.0
Austen Williams 26 pre-arb 2-0.2 0.5 -1.0
Matt Adams 30 FA-elig 111-0.2 3.0 -3.6
Adrián Sanchez 28 pre-arb 28-0.2 0.3 -0.9
Raudy Read 25 pre-arb 6-0.2 0.1 -0.8
Roenis Elías↔ SEA 30 arb 4-0.3 0.1 -0.9
Kyle McGowin 27 pre-arb 7-0.3 0.1 -1.0
Hunter Strickland↔ SEA 30 arb 24-0.3 1.1 -2.1
Justin Miller 32 arb 17-0.3 0.6 -1.7
Trevor Rosenthal↔ DET 29 FA-elig 12-0.3 3.8 -4.9
Matt Grace 30 arb 51-0.4 0.6 -1.9
Kyle Barraclough↔ SFG 29 arb 33-0.6 1.3 -3.2
Carter Kieboom 21 – 11-0.6 0.0 -2.1

Key additions (new vs 2018)

PlayerfWAR
Patrick Corbin4.4
Aníbal Sánchez2.2
Asdrúbal Cabrera1.5
Brian Dozier1.5
Yan Gomes0.9
Kurt Suzuki0.5

Key subtractions (gone from 2018)

Player2018 fWAR
Bryce Harper3.2
Tanner Roark2.5
Gio Gonzalez1.4
Brandon Kintzler0.5
Matt Wieters0.5
Greg Holland0.4

Current & Historical Payroll

2019 payroll
$203.3M
2020 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2019, 2019–2025. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2019; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (20)

PlayerAgeSvc2019202020212022202320242025
Stephen Strasburg308.118$38.3MFREE AGENT
Max Scherzer3410.079$37.5MFREE AGENT
Ryan Zimmerman3413.032$18.0MFREE AGENT
Patrick Corbin296.105$12.9MFREE AGENT
Brian Dozier326.100$9.0MFREE AGENT
Adam Eaton306.030$8.4MFREE AGENT
Yan Gomes316.083$7.1MFREE AGENT
Sean Doolittle326.122$6.0MFREE AGENT
Aníbal Sánchez3512.099$6.0MFREE AGENT
Howie Kendrick3512.091$4.0MFREE AGENT
Kurt Suzuki3511.112$4.0MFREE AGENT
Trevor Rosenthal297.000$3.8MFREE AGENT
Fernando Rodney4215.137$3.6MFREE AGENT
Matt Adams306.033$3.0MFREE AGENT
Jeremy Hellickson328.041$1.3MFREE AGENT
Asdrúbal Cabrera3311.027$1.0MFREE AGENT
Tony Sipp3510.000$1.0MFREE AGENT
Javy Guerra338.000$627kFREE AGENT
Daniel Hudson328.106$522kFREE AGENT
Gerardo Parra329.145$253kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (9)

PlayerAgeSvc2019202020212022202320242025
Anthony Rendon295.130$18.8MFREE AGENT
Michael A. Taylor285.000$3.2MFREE AGENT
Kyle Barraclough293.059$1.3MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Hunter Strickland303.163$1.1MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe Ross263.067$1.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jonny Venters345.159$562kFREE AGENT
Dan Jennings325.171$124kFREE AGENT
Aaron Barrett313.034$78kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Roenis Elías303.069$76kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (21)

PlayerAgeSvc2019202020212022202320242025
Trea Turner262.135$3.7MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin Miller322.128$593kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Wilmer Difo272.110$581kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Juan Soto200.134$578kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Grace302.065$576kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Wander Suero270.123$562kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andrew Stevenson250.158$559kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Victor Robles220.052$558kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jake Noll250.000$555kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Austen Williams260.030$516kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tanner Rainey260.023$403kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Erick Fedde260.150$355kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Austin Voth270.036$338kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adrián Sanchez280.160$256kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle McGowin270.027$116kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Raudy Read250.032$90kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tres Barrera240.000$66kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Blazek302.089$45kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carter Kieboom210.000$30kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Austin Adams280.043$14kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
James Bourque250.000$12kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Nationals 2019; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'WSN',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});