CIN⇄ARI

CINCIN Wayne Krivsky net +$0.0M net +0.0

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $24M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Danny PeralesCF·23y·L/L

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $24M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#657 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

ARIARI Josh Byrnes net +$0.0M net +0.0

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $20M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.7 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Jon CoutlangusP·27y·L/L

−$0.1M−$0.1M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.7± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#573 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.1/yr over 1.0 season

Talent

0.18/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.84 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.