DET⇄SDP

DETDET Randy Smith net +$0.0M net +0.0

received −$0.8M−$0.8M ± $0M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Earl JohnsonP·78y·L/L

−$0.7M−$0.7M± $0M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

0.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

SDPSDP Kevin Towers net +$0.0M net +0.0

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $14M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.0 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Dave Hajek2B/3B·29y·R/R

+$1.0M+$1.0M± $14M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.0± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.5/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.34/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.61 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.