CLE⇄PIT

CLECLE Mark Shapiro net −$0.8M net +0.0

received +$3.2M+$2.4M ± $9M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 0.8 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Chris DickersonOF·32y·L/L

+$3.0M+$2.3M± $9M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 0.8± 1 exp WARrealized -0.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.1/yr over 0.9 season

Talent

0.59/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.90 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

PITPIT Neal Huntington net +$0.8M net +0.0

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $0M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

cash / PTBNL

+$0.0M+$0.0M± $0M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized 0.0

Cash or player to be named — no projection

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.