RRosternomics
BO

Brian O'Halloran

Born 1971 · Weymouth, MA · age 55

General manager for the Red Sox (2020–2023).

4 seasons with salary-era data across 1 stint. All figures are franchise-level outcomes during the tenure, not solely attributable to one executive.

Overview

Titles0
Pennants0
Playoffs1
Record272–274
Win %0.498
-2.4GM WAR — wins above a replacement GM (org-adjusted, shrunk; per season) ±6.5138th/195 execs
4.0Depth — 2+ WAR regulars per season (the breadth that drives TAB, not stars)162nd/195 execs
-5.2Dead WAR — WAR/yr bled by sub-replacement players (closer to 0 = better)107th/195 execs
32%Dead money — payroll on <0.5-WAR players (lower = better)83rd/195 execs
$14MCheap-talent surplus — $/yr of value from cost-controlled (pre-arb/arb) players above their pay; the selection engine, and the stickiest GM skill we track100th/195 execs
$5MDrafted surplus — cheap-talent surplus from his own draftees (the develop-from-the-draft engine)108th/195 execs
$7MTraded-for surplus — cheap-talent surplus from cost-controlled players he acquired via trade61st/195 execs
$3MInt'l surplus — cheap-talent surplus from his own international signees37th/195 execs
-12.8TAB — talent above budget — roster-construction alpha (talent your budget bought above expectation), tenure total120th/195 execs
-6.8WAB — realized wins (TAB + the non-repeatable luck of converting talent to wins)95th/195 execs
1.70Acquisition Leverage — playoff pts per acquired WAR, graded once in the year each deal's wins arrive (the repeatable decision skill)95th/195 execs
-238Roster surplus $M163rd/195 execs

Tenure breakdown

TeamRoleYearsSzns WAB WAB/yr TAB WAR surp HG Trade FA R5 AcqLev W-L% POPenWS Surp $M
Red Sox GM 2020–2023 3 -6.8 -2.27 -12.8 -57.3 +21.5 +13.4 -44.9 +7.4 1.70 0.498 1 -238
Career total (1985+ data) 4 -6.8 -12.8 -57.3 +21.5 +13.4 -44.9 +7.4 1.70 0.498 1 -238

Roster Construction

How the roster was sourced

Share of acquired fWAR by channel vs. league average.

Build channels — net fWAR

Acquired minus surrendered / signed minus walked.

Home-grown (draft/intl)+21.5
Trade+13.4
Free agency-44.9
Rule 5 / minor draft+7.4
Sourcing mix: 30% draft · 35% FA · 25% trade · 10% R5

Roster value distribution — career average — depth vs. stars

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR, averaged across Brian O'Halloran's seasons. Bars = his rosters; the black line = the league-average player at each slot. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge.

Players acquired — 87 players, by realized fWAR for the franchise (scroll for more)

PlayerPosTeam How Year Szns fWAR WAR/yr Lev
Wilyer Abreu OF BOS Trade 2022 4 +8.4 +2.1
Ceddanne Rafaela OF BOS Draft 2023 4 +8.2 +2.1
Nick Pivetta P BOS Trade 2020 5 +7.9 +1.6 0.3
Garrett Whitlock P BOS Rule 5 2020 6 +7.7 +1.3
Brayan Bello P BOS Draft 2022 5 +6.8 +1.4
Trevor Story SS BOS Free agency 2022 4 +6.1 +1.5 1.4
Alex Verdugo OF BOS Trade 2020 4 +6.0 +1.5 1.9
Enrique Hernández OF BOS Free agency 2021 2 +3.9 +2.0 18.6
Rob Refsnyder OF BOS Free agency 2021 4 +3.8 +1.0 0.6
Hunter Renfroe OF BOS Free agency 2020 1 +2.6 +2.6 12.9
Kenley Jansen P BOS Free agency 2022 2 +2.5 +1.2 0.3
Tyler O'Neill OF BOS Trade 2023 1 +2.5 +2.5 11.7
Chris Martin P BOS Trade 2023 2 +2.4 +1.2 0.4
Justin Slaten P BOS Trade 2023 3 +2.3 +0.8
Triston Casas 1B BOS Draft 2022 3 +2.2 +0.7
John Schreiber P BOS Trade 2021 3 +1.9 +0.6 0.5
Masataka Yoshida DH/OF BOS Draft 2023 3 +1.8 +0.6
Adam Duvall OF BOS Free agency 2023 1 +1.6 +1.6 0.4
David Hamilton 2B/SS BOS Draft 2023 2 +1.5 +0.8
Michael Wacha P BOS Free agency 2021 1 +1.5 +1.5 0.8
Brennan Bernardino P BOS Trade 2023 3 +1.5 +0.5 0.2
Justin Turner 3B BOS Free agency 2023 1 +1.2 +1.2 0.3
Josh Winckowski P BOS Draft 2022 3 +1.2 +0.4
Connor Wong C BOS Trade 2020 5 +1.2 +0.2
Cooper Criswell P BOS Free agency 2023 1 +1.1 +1.1 5.1
Garrett Richards P BOS Free agency 2021 1 +1.1 +1.1 5.6
Martín Pérez P BOS Trade 2020 2 +1.1 +0.5 0.6
Kyle Schwarber DH/OF BOS Trade 2021 1 +1.1 +1.1 5.6
James Paxton P BOS Free agency 2021 2 +1.0 +0.5 0.3
Christian Arroyo 2B BOS Trade 2020 3 +0.8 +0.3 0.0
Reese McGuire C BOS Trade 2022 3 +0.7 +0.2 0.7
Adam Ottavino P BOS Trade 2021 1 +0.6 +0.6 2.8
Kevin Plawecki C BOS Free agency 2020 2 +0.6 +0.3 0.4
Pablo Reyes OF BOS Trade 2023 1 +0.5 +0.5 0.1
Chris Mazza P BOS Trade 2020 1 +0.4 +0.4 0.5
Kevin Pillar OF BOS Trade 2020 1 +0.4 +0.4 0.6
Austin Davis P BOS Trade 2021 2 +0.4 +0.2 0.8
Matt Strahm P BOS Free agency 2022 1 +0.3 +0.3 0.2
Raimel Tapia OF BOS Trade 2023 1 +0.3 +0.3 0.1
Zack Kelly P BOS Draft 2022 2 +0.2 +0.1
Chris Murphy P BOS Draft 2023 1 +0.2 +0.2
Luis Urías 2B/3B BOS Trade 2023 1 +0.2 +0.2 0.1
Jaylin Davis OF BOS Trade 2022 1 +0.2 +0.2 0.1
José De León P BOS Free agency 2021 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.4
Richard Fitts P BOS Trade 2023 1 +0.1 +0.1
Joe Jacques P BOS Draft 2023 2 +0.1 +0.0
Ryan Sherriff P BOS Free agency 2023 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.0
Robert Stock P BOS Trade 2020 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.3
Tommy Pham OF BOS Trade 2022 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.1
Dylan Covey P BOS Trade 2020 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.1
Taylor Motter SS BOS Trade 2021 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.5
Mauricio Llovera P BOS Trade 2023 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.0
Abraham Almonte OF BOS Trade 2022 -0.0
Yu Chang SS BOS Free agency 2023 2 +0.0 +0.0 0.1
Jake Faria P BOS Free agency 2023 -0.0
Marwin González SS BOS Free agency 2021 +0.0
Jonathan Lucroy C BOS Free agency 2020 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0
Yairo Muñoz SS/OF BOS Free agency 2020 1 -0.0 -0.0 0.4
César Puello OF BOS Free agency 2020 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.1
Yolmer Sánchez 2B/3B BOS Free agency 2022 +0.0
Domingo Tapia P BOS Trade 2020 -0.0
Brandon Walter P BOS Draft 2023 1 +0.0 +0.0
Phillips Valdéz P BOS Trade 2020 2 +0.0 +0.0 0.1
Deivy Grullón C BOS Trade 2020 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0
Stephen Gonsalves P BOS Trade 2021 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.2
Nick Robertson P BOS Trade 2023 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0
Richard Bleier P BOS Trade 2023 -0.1
Michael Feliz P BOS Free agency 2021 -0.1
Jack López 2B BOS Trade 2021 -0.1
Joely Rodríguez P BOS Free agency 2022 -0.1
Austin Brice P BOS Trade 2020 -0.2
Matt Dermody P BOS Free agency 2023 -0.2
Frank German P BOS Draft 2022 -0.2
Matt Hall P BOS Trade 2020 -0.2
Danny Santana OF BOS Free agency 2021 -0.2
Hirokazu Sawamura P BOS Draft 2021 1 -0.2 -0.2
Enmanuel Valdez 2B BOS Trade 2022 1 -0.2 -0.2
Jeter Downs 2B/3B/SS BOS Draft 2022 -0.3
Connor Seabold P BOS Trade 2020 -0.3
Tyler Danish P BOS Free agency 2022 -0.4
Zack Godley P BOS Free agency 2020 -0.4
Robinson Leyer P BOS Trade 2020 -0.4
Kaleb Ort P BOS Rule 5 2020 -0.4
Hansel Robles P BOS Free agency 2022 1 -0.6 -0.6 2.1
Vaughn Grissom 2B BOS Trade 2023 -0.7
Corey Kluber P BOS Free agency 2023 -0.8
Franchy Cordero 1B/OF BOS Trade 2021 -1.2

WAB = wins above what the team's payroll predicted (resource-controlled). WAR surplus = era-neutral value (WAR minus payroll in win-equivalents). Roster surplus $M = dollar value of WAR over cost. Build channels (realized fWAR): HG = home-grown via amateur draft / international signing; Trade = acquired minus surrendered (incl. purchases/waivers); FA = signed minus walked; R5 = Rule-5 / minor-league-draft pickups. Credit follows the acquisition year — home-grown to the regime at the player's draft/signing (not whoever was in the chair when he peaked), trade/FA/R5 to the GM who made the move. Players acquired as prospects before debuting (e.g. Smoltz, Bagwell; Rule-5 picks like Uggla) are counted as trade/R5, not home-grown. All are franchise-level outcomes during the stint, not solely attributable to one executive.

Graphs

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