RRosternomics
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Red Sox BOS

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President of baseball ops: Chaim Bloom · GM: Brian O'Halloran

Overview

CONTEND ↘ cooling
expensive & winning · year 5 in this regime · payroll 1.27× league · TAB +4.9
+4.9TAB — talent above budget10th/30
+7.0WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)11th/30
9.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars6th/30
-4.0dead WAR — sub-replacement drag7th/30
10%dead money %1st/30
0.568win %7th/30
42.1roster fWAR7th/30
-25surplus $M (value vs cost)19th/30
$161Mpayroll $M10th/30

2021: made playoffs · 92–70. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFEnrique Hernández 93GAlex Verdugo 42GJarren Duran 28G
LFAlex Verdugo 90GKyle Schwarber 87GFranchy Cordero 33G
RFHunter Renfroe 138GAlex Verdugo 24GJ.D. Martinez 8G
SSXander Bogaerts 138GJose Iglesias 119GJonathan Araúz 13G
2BChristian Arroyo 51GEnrique Hernández 47GJose Iglesias 18G
3BRafael Devers 151GBobby Dalbec 14GJonathan Araúz 2G
1BBobby Dalbec 123GTravis Shaw 31GDanny Santana 14G
STARTERSNathan Eovaldi 5.8WAREduardo Rodriguez 3.9WARNick Pivetta 2.3WARTanner Houck 2.2WARGarrett Richards 1.1WAR
CChristian Vázquez 132GKevin Plawecki 53GConnor Wong 5G
DHJ.D. Martinez 113GKyle Schwarber 14GXander Bogaerts 6G
BULLPEN★ Matt Barnes 24svAdam Ottavino 22hHansel Robles 17hJosh Taylor 15hGarrett Whitlock 14hDarwinzon Hernández 12hHirokazu Sawamura 10hAustin Davis 4h
CChristian Vázquez 132 · Kevin Plawecki 53 · Connor Wong 5
1BBobby Dalbec 123 · Travis Shaw 31 · Danny Santana 14
2BChristian Arroyo 51 · Enrique Hernández 47 · Jose Iglesias 18
3BRafael Devers 151 · Bobby Dalbec 14 · Jonathan Araúz 2
SSXander Bogaerts 138 · Jose Iglesias 119 · Jonathan Araúz 13
LFAlex Verdugo 90 · Kyle Schwarber 87 · Franchy Cordero 33
CFEnrique Hernández 93 · Alex Verdugo 42 · Jarren Duran 28
RFHunter Renfroe 138 · Alex Verdugo 24 · J.D. Martinez 8
DHJ.D. Martinez 113 · Kyle Schwarber 14 · Xander Bogaerts 6
SPNathan Eovaldi 5.8 · Eduardo Rodriguez 3.9 · Nick Pivetta 2.3 · Tanner Houck 2.2 · Garrett Richards 1.1
BP★ Matt Barnes 24 · Adam Ottavino 22 · Hansel Robles 17 · Josh Taylor 15 · Garrett Whitlock 14 · Darwinzon Hernández 12 · Hirokazu Sawamura 10 · Austin Davis 4

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2021 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Nathan Eovaldi 31 FA-elig 325.8 17.0 +1.7
Rafael Devers 24 arb 1564.2 4.6 +9.2
Xander Bogaerts 28 FA-elig 1444.1 20.0 -6.6
Eduardo Rodriguez 28 FA-elig 323.9 8.3 +4.2
Enrique Hernández 29 FA-elig 1343.6 6.0 +5.9
J.D. Martinez 33 FA-elig 1482.7 19.4 -10.4
Hunter Renfroe 29 arb 1442.6 3.1 +5.3
Nick Pivetta 28 pre-arb 312.3 0.6 +6.7
Tanner Houck 25 pre-arb 182.2 0.2 +7.1
Alex Verdugo 25 pre-arb 1461.9 0.6 +5.4
Garrett Whitlock 25 – 461.7 0.6 +4.9
Matt Barnes 31 FA-elig 601.3 4.5 -0.3
Garrett Richards 33 FA-elig 401.1 8.5 -4.8
Kyle Schwarber↔ WSN 28 FA-elig 411.1 2.5 +1.1
Josh Taylor 28 pre-arb 611.1 0.6 +2.8
Christian Vázquez 30 FA-elig 1381.0 6.2 -2.9
Chris Sale 32 FA-elig 90.8 30.0 -27.4
Christian Arroyo 26 pre-arb 570.8 0.6 +2.0
Jose Iglesias↔ ANA 31 FA-elig 230.7 0.6 +1.8
Martín Pérez 30 FA-elig 360.6 4.5 -2.5
Adam Ottavino 35 FA-elig 690.6 7.2 -5.4
Bobby Dalbec 26 pre-arb 1330.5 0.6 +0.9
Hansel Robles↔ MIN 30 FA-elig 270.4 0.8 +0.6
Kevin Plawecki 30 FA-elig 640.4 1.6 -0.4
Austin Davis↔ PIT 28 pre-arb 190.2 0.2 +0.3
Connor Wong 25 – 60.1 0.1 +0.4
John Schreiber 27 pre-arb 10.1 0.0 +0.3
Taylor Motter↔ COL 31 pre-arb 30.1 0.0 +0.3
Jonathan Araúz 22 pre-arb 280.1 0.2 +0.1
Eduard Bazardo 25 – 20.1 0.2 -0.1
Stephen Gonsalves 26 pre-arb 30.0 0.0 +0.1
Travis Shaw↔ MIL 31 FA-elig 280.0 0.5 -0.4
Yacksel Ríos↔ SEA 28 pre-arb 20-0.0 0.2 -0.2
Brandon Brennan 29 – 1-0.0 0.0 -0.0
Raynel Espinal 29 – 1-0.0 0.0 -0.0
Kaleb Ort 29 – 1-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Colten Brewer 28 pre-arb 1-0.0 0.0 -0.2
Ryan Brasier 33 FA-elig 13-0.1 1.2 -1.5
Phillips Valdez 29 pre-arb 28-0.1 0.4 -0.7
Michael Feliz↔ CIN 28 FA-elig 4-0.1 0.2 -0.5
Jack López 28 – 7-0.1 0.0 -0.4
Kutter Crawford 25 – 1-0.1 0.0 -0.3
Austin Brice 29 arb 13-0.1 0.9 -1.2
Matt Andriese↔ SEA 31 FA-elig 26-0.1 1.4 -1.8
Brandon Workman↔ CHC 32 FA-elig 19-0.1 0.2 -0.6
Connor Seabold 25 – 1-0.1 0.0 -0.4
Darwinzon Hernández 24 pre-arb 48-0.2 0.6 -1.1
Danny Santana 30 FA-elig 38-0.2 1.8 -2.3
Brad Peacock 33 FA-elig 2-0.2 0.0 -0.7
Michael Chavis↔ PIT 25 – 31-0.2 0.3 -0.9
Hirokazu Sawamura 33 pre-arb 55-0.2 1.2 -1.9
Ryan Weber↔ MIL 30 – 1-0.2 0.1 -0.9
Yairo Muñoz 26 pre-arb 5-0.3 0.1 -1.0
Jarren Duran 24 – 33-0.3 0.2 -1.2
Marwin Gonzalez↔ HOU 32 FA-elig 77-0.4 2.5 -3.9
Franchy Cordero 26 arb 48-0.8 0.1 -2.9

Key additions (new vs 2020)

PlayerfWAR
Eduardo Rodriguez3.9
Enrique Hernández3.6
Hunter Renfroe2.6
Garrett Whitlock1.7
Garrett Richards1.1
Kyle Schwarber1.1

Key subtractions (gone from 2020)

Player2020 fWAR
Jackie Bradley Jr.1.6
Mitch Moreland1.1
Kevin Pillar0.4
Chris Mazza0.4
Robert Stock0.2
Dylan Covey0.1

Current & Historical Payroll

2021 payroll
$161.3M
2022 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2021, 2021–2027. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2021; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (16)

PlayerAgeSvc2021202220232024202520262027
Chris Sale3210.061$30.0MFREE AGENT
Xander Bogaerts287.042$20.0MFREE AGENT
J.D. Martinez339.036$19.4MFREE AGENT
Nathan Eovaldi319.013$17.0MFREE AGENT
Garrett Richards338.148$8.5MFREE AGENT
Adam Ottavino359.087$7.2MFREE AGENT
Christian Vázquez306.031$6.2MFREE AGENT
Enrique Hernández296.054$6.0MFREE AGENT
Martín Pérez308.038$4.5MFREE AGENT
Kyle Schwarber286.000$2.5MFREE AGENT
Marwin Gonzalez328.133$2.5MFREE AGENT
Matt Andriese316.000$1.4MFREE AGENT
Jose Iglesias318.036$588kFREE AGENT
Brandon Workman328.000$236kFREE AGENT
Michael Feliz286.000$190kFREE AGENT
Brad Peacock336.165$40kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (11)

PlayerAgeSvc2021202220232024202520262027
Eduardo Rodriguez285.130$8.3MFREE AGENT
Rafael Devers243.070$4.6MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Barnes315.110$4.5MFREE AGENT
Hunter Renfroe293.165$3.1MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Danny Santana305.140$1.8MFREE AGENT
Kevin Plawecki304.167$1.6MARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Brasier333.109$1.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Austin Brice293.100$870kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Hansel Robles305.119$750kFREE AGENT
Travis Shaw315.053$500kFREE AGENT
Franchy Cordero263.038$116kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (29)

PlayerAgeSvc2021202220232024202520262027
Hirokazu Sawamura331.000$1.2MPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alex Verdugo252.078$650kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Pivetta282.166$614kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Christian Arroyo262.036$582kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Taylor281.121$580kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Darwinzon Hernández241.080$578kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bobby Dalbec260.081$575kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Garrett Whitlock250.000$570kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Phillips Valdez291.040$389kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Chavis251.164$261kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eduard Bazardo250.000$242kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Austin Davis281.105$203kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tanner Houck250.036$192kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jarren Duran240.000$187kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jonathan Araúz221.000$163kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yacksel Ríos282.019$160kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Weber302.138$143kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yairo Muñoz262.060$113kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Connor Wong250.000$80kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jack López280.000$49kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Stephen Gonsalves260.056$43kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Colten Brewer282.044$21kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Brennan292.000$18kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
John Schreiber271.017$18kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kaleb Ort290.000$12kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Taylor Motter311.033$12kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Raynel Espinal290.000$3kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Connor Seabold250.000$3kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kutter Crawford250.000$3kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Red Sox 2021; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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slot %{x} · %{customdata[1]:.1f} WAR
%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'BOS',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});