RRosternomics
𝕏

Braves ATL

‹ ›

GM: John Schuerholz

Overview

CONTEND ↘ cooling
expensive & winning · year 4 in this regime · payroll 1.42× league · TAB +8.6
+8.6TAB — talent above budget6th/28
+13.2WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)2nd/28
9.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars2nd/28
-2.9dead WAR — sub-replacement drag4th/28
9%dead money %2nd/28
0.625win %2nd/28
41.8roster fWAR4th/28
-6surplus $M (value vs cost)17th/28
$47Mpayroll $M2nd/28

1995: World Series champions · 90–54. Ranks are vs the 28 teams that season.

Roster

CFMarquis Grissom 136GMike Devereaux 18GMike Kelly 8G
LFRyan Klesko 102GLuis Polonia 75GMike Kelly 58G
RFDavid Justice 120GMike Devereaux 91GMike Kelly 17G
SSJeff Blauser 115GRafael Belliard 40GMike Mordecai 6G
2BMark Lemke 115GRafael Belliard 32GMike Mordecai 21G
3BChipper Jones 123GMike Mordecai 6GEd Giovanola 3G
1BFred McGriff 144GMike Mordecai 9GRyan Klesko 4G
STARTERSGreg Maddux 7.9WARTom Glavine 4.7WARJohn Smoltz 4.6WARSteve Avery 2.9WARKent Mercker 1.2WAR
CJavy Lopez 93GCharlie O'Brien 64GEddie Pérez 5G
BULLPEN★ Mark Wohlers 25svGreg McMichael 0hBrad Clontz 0hAlejandro Pena 0hPedro Borbón 0hSteve Bedrosian 0hBrad Woodall 0hJason Schmidt 0h
CJavy Lopez 93 · Charlie O'Brien 64 · Eddie Pérez 5
1BFred McGriff 144 · Mike Mordecai 9 · Ryan Klesko 4
2BMark Lemke 115 · Rafael Belliard 32 · Mike Mordecai 21
3BChipper Jones 123 · Mike Mordecai 6 · Ed Giovanola 3
SSJeff Blauser 115 · Rafael Belliard 40 · Mike Mordecai 6
LFRyan Klesko 102 · Luis Polonia 75 · Mike Kelly 58
CFMarquis Grissom 136 · Mike Devereaux 18 · Mike Kelly 8
RFDavid Justice 120 · Mike Devereaux 91 · Mike Kelly 17
SPGreg Maddux 7.9 · Tom Glavine 4.7 · John Smoltz 4.6 · Steve Avery 2.9 · Kent Mercker 1.2
BP★ Mark Wohlers 25 · Greg McMichael 0 · Brad Clontz 0 · Alejandro Pena 0 · Pedro Borbón 0 · Steve Bedrosian 0 · Brad Woodall 0 · Jason Schmidt 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

1995 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Greg Maddux 29 FA-elig 287.9 6.5 +1.1
Tom Glavine 29 FA-elig 294.7 4.8 -0.2
John Smoltz 28 FA-elig 294.6 4.9 -0.5
David Justice 29 FA-elig 1203.5 5.2 -1.8
Chipper Jones Jr. 23 pre-arb 1402.9 0.1 +2.6
Steve Avery 25 arb 292.9 4.0 -1.3
Mark Wohlers 25 arb 652.6 0.2 +2.3
Fred McGriff 31 FA-elig 1442.2 4.3 -2.1
Ryan Klesko 24 arb 1072.1 0.2 +1.8
Javy Lopez 24 arb 1001.9 0.1 +1.7
Mark Lemke 29 FA-elig 1161.7 1.2 +0.4
Marquis Grissom 28 FA-elig 1391.4 5.0 -3.6
Kent Mercker 27 FA-elig 291.2 2.2 -1.1
Jeff Blauser 29 FA-elig 1151.0 3.4 -2.5
Charlie O'Brien 35 FA-elig 670.9 0.6 +0.3
Greg McMichael 28 pre-arb 670.7 0.3 +0.4
Brad Clontz 24 pre-arb 590.7 0.1 +0.6
Mike Devereaux↔ CHW 32 FA-elig 290.5 0.3 +0.1
Pedro Borbon Jr. 27 arb 410.4 0.1 +0.2
Alejandro Pena↔ BOS 36 FA-elig 140.3 0.1 +0.1
Mike Mordecai 27 pre-arb 690.3 0.1 +0.2
Eddie Pérez 27 pre-arb 70.1 0.1 +0.0
Jason Schmidt 22 pre-arb 90.1 0.1 -0.0
Darrell May 23 – 20.1 – –
Tom Thobe 25 – 30.1 – –
Luis Polonia↔ NYY 31 FA-elig 28-0.0 0.4 -0.4
Rafael Belliard 33 FA-elig 75-0.0 0.6 -0.6
Terry Clark↔ BAL 34 FA-elig 3-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Mike Sharperson 33 FA-elig 7-0.1 0.3 -0.3
Brad Woodall 26 – 9-0.1 – –
Mike Stanton↔ BOS 28 FA-elig 26-0.1 0.8 -0.9
Mike Kelly 25 pre-arb 97-0.1 0.1 -0.2
Brian Kowitz 25 – 10-0.1 – –
Terrell Wade 22 – 3-0.1 – –
Dwight Smith 31 FA-elig 103-0.1 0.3 -0.4
Ed Giovanola 26 – 13-0.3 – –
Matt Murray↔ BOS 24 – 4-0.3 – –
Rod Nichols 30 – 5-0.3 – –
Steve Bedrosian 37 FA-elig 29-0.4 0.8 -1.2
Jose Oliva↔ STL 24 pre-arb 48-0.7 0.1 -0.8

Key additions (new vs 1994)

PlayerfWAR
Chipper Jones Jr.2.9
Marquis Grissom1.4
Brad Clontz0.7
Mike Devereaux0.5
Pedro Borbon Jr.0.4
Alejandro Pena0.3

Key subtractions (gone from 1994)

Player1994 fWAR
Deion Sanders1.2
Roberto Kelly0.6
Bill Pecota0.5
Terry Pendleton0.5
Tony Tarasco0.2
Mike Bielecki0.1

Current & Historical Payroll

1995 payroll
$47.3M

What the front office was committed to as of 1995, 1995–2001. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (20)

PlayerAgeSvc1995199619971998199920002001
Greg Maddux299.000$6.5M$6.7M$6.8M$9.6M$10.6M$11.1M$12.5M
David Justice296.000$5.2M$6.2MFREE AGENT
Marquis Grissom286.000$5.0M$4.8MFREE AGENT
John Smoltz287.000$4.9M$6.0M$7.0M$7.8M$7.8MFREE AGENT$8.0M
Tom Glavine298.000$4.8M$5.3M$5.0M$7.0M$7.0M$9.5M$9.5M
Fred McGriff319.000$4.3M$5.0M$5.5MFREE AGENT
Jeff Blauser298.000$3.4M$3.5M$4.0MFREE AGENT
Kent Mercker276.000$2.2MFREE AGENT
Mark Lemke297.000$1.2M$1.5M$2.0MFREE AGENT
Mike Stanton286.000$812kFREE AGENT
Steve Bedrosian3714.000$750kFREE AGENT
Charlie O'Brien3510.000$550kFREE AGENT
Rafael Belliard3313.000$550k$575k$250k$250kFREE AGENT
Luis Polonia318.000$442k$181kFREE AGENT
Mike Devereaux328.000$324kFREE AGENT
Dwight Smith316.000$300k$455kFREE AGENT
Mike Sharperson338.000$255kFREE AGENT
Alejandro Pena3614.000$143kFREE AGENT
Terry Clark347.000$10kFREE AGENT
Rod Nichols307.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (5)

PlayerAgeSvc1995199619971998199920002001
Steve Avery255.000$4.0MFREE AGENT
Mark Wohlers254.000$202kARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Klesko243.000$190kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Javy Lopez243.000$150kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pedro Borbon Jr.273.000$112kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (15)

PlayerAgeSvc1995199619971998199920002001
Greg McMichael282.000$305kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chipper Jones Jr.232.000$114kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Kelly251.000$112kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Schmidt220.000$109kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brad Clontz240.000$109kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eddie Pérez270.000$109kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Mordecai271.000$109kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jose Oliva241.000$76kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ed Giovanola260.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Kowitz25–—
Darrell May230.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Murray24–—
Tom Thobe25–—
Terrell Wade220.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brad Woodall261.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Braves 1995; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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Not enough history to chart.

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Pick a wider year range.

'; return; } const s=sm(raw,w),n=s.length,X=s.map(d=>Math.round(d[1]*100)/100),Y=s.map(d=>Math.round(d[2]*10)/10),yr=s.map(d=>d[0]); let xa=Math.min(1,...X),xb=Math.max(1,...X),ya=Math.min(0,...Y),yb=Math.max(0,...Y); const px=(xb-xa)*.12+.04,py=(yb-ya)*.12+1.5;xa-=px;xb+=px;ya-=py;yb+=py; const k=Math.max(0,n-3), ann=[]; [['WINDOW','#15b6a0',xa<1&&yb>0,xa,yb,'left','top'],['CONTEND','#2f7ed8',xb>1&&yb>0,xb,yb,'right','top'], ['FORCED-SPEND','#ec5a3c',xb>1&&ya<0,xb,ya,'right','bottom'],['REBUILD','#f0a91c',xa<1&&ya<0,xa,ya,'left','bottom']].forEach(q=>{ if(q[2]) ann.push({x:q[3],y:q[4],xref:'x',yref:'y',text:q[0],showarrow:false,xanchor:q[5],yanchor:q[6],font:{size:10,color:q[1]},opacity:.85});}); ann.push({x:X[n-1],y:Y[n-1],ax:X[n-1]-0.5*(X[n-1]-X[k]),ay:Y[n-1]-0.5*(Y[n-1]-Y[k]),xref:'x',yref:'y',axref:'x',ayref:'y',showarrow:true,arrowhead:2,arrowsize:1.3,arrowwidth:1.7,arrowcolor:dirc,text:''}); Plotly.newPlot('orbit',[{x:X,y:Y,mode:'lines+markers',line:{color:col,width:2.6,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.7}, marker:{color:col,size:s.map((d,i)=>5+7*(i/Math.max(1,n-1))),line:{color:dark?'#1b1e23':'#fff',width:0.6}}, text:yr,hovertemplate:'%{text}
payroll %{x:.2f}× lg · TAB %{y:+.1f}
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slot %{x} · %{customdata[1]:.1f} WAR
%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'ATL',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});