RRosternomics
𝕏

Braves ATL

‹ ›

GM: John Schuerholz

Overview

CONTEND → steady
expensive & winning · year 5 in this regime · payroll 1.55× league · TAB +15.1
+15.1TAB — talent above budget1st/28
+8.6WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)4th/28
11.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars1st/28
-4.1dead WAR — sub-replacement drag6th/28
6%dead money %1st/28
0.593win %2nd/28
54.6roster fWAR1st/28
-5surplus $M (value vs cost)14th/28
$51Mpayroll $M3rd/28

1996: won pennant · 96–66. Ranks are vs the 28 teams that season.

Roster

CFMarquis Grissom 158GAndruw Jones 12GJermaine Dye 4G
LFRyan Klesko 144GLuis Polonia 39GJermaine Dye 25G
RFJermaine Dye 71GDavid Justice 40GDwight Smith 26G
SSJeff Blauser 79GRafael Belliard 62GChipper Jones 38G
2BMark Lemke 133GMike Mordecai 20GTony Graffanino 18G
3BTerry Pendleton 149GChipper Jones 118GMike Mordecai 10G
1BFred McGriff 158GEddie Pérez 7GRyan Klesko 2G
STARTERSJohn Smoltz 9.0WARGreg Maddux 7.8WARTom Glavine 6.3WARSteve Avery 2.9WARMike Bielecki 0.7WAR
CJavy Lopez 135GEddie Pérez 54GJoe Ayrault 7G
BULLPEN★ Mark Wohlers 39svBrad Clontz 0hGreg McMichael 0hPedro Borbón 0hDean Hartgraves 0hJoe Borowski 0hBrad Woodall 0hKevin Lomon 0h
CJavy Lopez 135 · Eddie Pérez 54 · Joe Ayrault 7
1BFred McGriff 158 · Eddie Pérez 7 · Ryan Klesko 2
2BMark Lemke 133 · Mike Mordecai 20 · Tony Graffanino 18
3BTerry Pendleton 149 · Chipper Jones 118 · Mike Mordecai 10
SSJeff Blauser 79 · Rafael Belliard 62 · Chipper Jones 38
LFRyan Klesko 144 · Luis Polonia 39 · Jermaine Dye 25
CFMarquis Grissom 158 · Andruw Jones 12 · Jermaine Dye 4
RFJermaine Dye 71 · David Justice 40 · Dwight Smith 26
SPJohn Smoltz 9.0 · Greg Maddux 7.8 · Tom Glavine 6.3 · Steve Avery 2.9 · Mike Bielecki 0.7
BP★ Mark Wohlers 39 · Brad Clontz 0 · Greg McMichael 0 · Pedro Borbón 0 · Dean Hartgraves 0 · Joe Borowski 0 · Brad Woodall 0 · Kevin Lomon 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

1996 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
John Smoltz 29 FA-elig 359.0 6.0 +1.6
Greg Maddux 30 FA-elig 357.8 6.7 -0.1
Chipper Jones Jr. 24 arb 1576.3 0.8 +4.5
Tom Glavine 30 FA-elig 396.3 5.3 -0.0
Marquis Grissom 29 FA-elig 1584.6 4.8 -1.0
Ryan Klesko 25 arb 1533.8 0.3 +2.9
Steve Avery 26 FA-elig 242.9 4.2 -1.8
Fred McGriff 32 FA-elig 1592.8 5.0 -2.7
David Justice 30 FA-elig 402.4 6.2 -4.2
Mark Wohlers 26 arb 772.1 1.4 +0.4
Javy Lopez 25 arb 1382.0 0.3 +1.4
Greg McMichael 29 arb 731.7 0.5 +1.0
Mark Lemke 30 FA-elig 1351.5 1.5 -0.3
Pedro Borbon Jr. 28 arb 430.9 0.1 +0.6
Mike Bielecki 36 FA-elig 400.7 0.1 +0.5
Jerome Walton 30 FA-elig 370.6 0.5 +0.0
Jeff Blauser 30 FA-elig 830.6 3.5 -3.0
Jermaine Dye 22 pre-arb 980.6 0.1 +0.4
Mark Whiten↔ PHI 29 FA-elig 360.5 0.2 +0.2
Eddie Pérez 28 pre-arb 680.5 0.1 +0.3
Terrell Wade 23 pre-arb 440.3 0.1 +0.2
Brad Woodall 27 – 80.3 – –
Denny Neagle↔ PIT 27 arb 60.2 0.4 -0.2
Jason Schmidt↔ PIT 23 pre-arb 130.2 0.1 +0.1
Carl Schutz 24 – 30.1 – –
Andruw Jones 19 pre-arb 310.0 0.1 -0.1
Tyler Houston↔ CHC 25 pre-arb 330.0 0.0 -0.0
Joe Ayrault 24 – 70.0 – –
Kevin Lomon 24 – 60.0 – –
Pablo Martinez 27 – 4-0.0 – –
Luis Polonia↔ BAL 32 FA-elig 22-0.0 0.1 -0.1
Tom Thobe 26 – 4-0.0 – –
Danny Bautista↔ DET 24 arb 17-0.1 0.1 -0.1
Dean Hartgraves↔ HOU 29 pre-arb 20-0.1 0.1 -0.2
Tony Graffanino 24 – 22-0.2 – –
Mike Mordecai 28 pre-arb 66-0.2 0.1 -0.3
Ed Giovanola 27 pre-arb 43-0.3 0.1 -0.3
Brad Clontz 25 pre-arb 81-0.3 0.1 -0.4
Joe Borowski 25 pre-arb 22-0.4 0.1 -0.4
Rafael Belliard 34 FA-elig 86-0.7 0.6 -1.2
Dwight Smith 32 FA-elig 101-0.9 0.5 -1.2
Terry Pendleton↔ MIA 35 FA-elig 42-0.9 0.4 -1.2

Key additions (new vs 1995)

PlayerfWAR
Mike Bielecki0.7
Jerome Walton0.6
Jermaine Dye0.6
Mark Whiten0.5
Denny Neagle0.2
Carl Schutz0.1

Key subtractions (gone from 1995)

Player1995 fWAR
Kent Mercker1.2
Charlie O'Brien0.9
Mike Devereaux0.5
Alejandro Pena0.3
Darrell May0.1
Terry Clark-0.0

Current & Historical Payroll

1996 payroll
$50.7M

What the front office was committed to as of 1996, 1996–2002. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (16)

PlayerAgeSvc1996199719981999200020012002
Greg Maddux3010.000$6.7M$6.8M$9.6M$10.6M$11.1M$12.5M$13.1M
David Justice307.000$6.2MFREE AGENT
John Smoltz298.000$6.0M$7.0M$7.8M$7.8MFREE AGENT$8.0M$7.7M
Tom Glavine309.000$5.3M$5.0M$7.0M$7.0M$9.5M$9.5M$8.6M
Fred McGriff3210.000$5.0M$5.5MFREE AGENT
Marquis Grissom297.000$4.8MFREE AGENT
Steve Avery266.000$4.2MFREE AGENT
Jeff Blauser309.000$3.5M$4.0MFREE AGENT
Mark Lemke308.000$1.5M$2.0MFREE AGENT
Rafael Belliard3414.000$575k$250k$250kFREE AGENT
Jerome Walton307.000$500kFREE AGENT
Dwight Smith327.000$455kFREE AGENT
Terry Pendleton3512.000$446kFREE AGENT
Mark Whiten296.000$212kFREE AGENT
Mike Bielecki3612.000$125k$708kFREE AGENT
Luis Polonia329.000$69kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (8)

PlayerAgeSvc1996199719981999200020012002
Mark Wohlers265.000$1.4MFREE AGENT
Chipper Jones Jr.243.000$825kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Greg McMichael293.000$460kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Denny Neagle275.000$383kFREE AGENT
Ryan Klesko254.000$315kARB 3FREE AGENT
Javy Lopez254.000$290kARB 3FREE AGENT
Pedro Borbon Jr.284.000$142kARB 3FREE AGENT
Danny Bautista243.000$75kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (18)

PlayerAgeSvc1996199719981999200020012002
Brad Clontz251.000$138kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Mordecai282.000$135kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eddie Pérez281.000$112kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe Borowski251.000$112kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jermaine Dye220.000$109kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andruw Jones190.000$109kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Terrell Wade231.000$109kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ed Giovanola271.000$109kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Schmidt231.000$76kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dean Hartgraves291.000$67kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Houston250.000$46kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe Ayrault24–—
Tony Graffanino240.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kevin Lomon24–—
Pablo Martinez27–—
Carl Schutz24–—
Tom Thobe26–—
Brad Woodall272.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Braves 1996; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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Not enough history to chart.

'; return; } const f=+document.getElementById('yfrom').value, t=+document.getElementById('yto').value, w=+document.getElementById('win').value; document.getElementById('yflab').textContent=f; document.getElementById('ytlab').textContent=t; document.getElementById('winlab').textContent = w===1?'raw':(w+'-yr'); const dark=document.documentElement.getAttribute('data-theme')==='dark'; const ink=dark?'#cdd4dc':'#1d2630', grid=dark?'#2c313a':'#d6dbe2', refc=dark?'#5a636d':'#9aa3ad', dirc=dark?'#ffffff':'#1d2630'; const col=contrastColor(TEAMCOL,dark); function sm(a,w){const h=(w-1)/2,o=[];for(let i=0;id[0]>=f&&d[0]<=t); if(raw.length<2){ Plotly.purge('orbit'); orbEl.innerHTML='

Pick a wider year range.

'; return; } const s=sm(raw,w),n=s.length,X=s.map(d=>Math.round(d[1]*100)/100),Y=s.map(d=>Math.round(d[2]*10)/10),yr=s.map(d=>d[0]); let xa=Math.min(1,...X),xb=Math.max(1,...X),ya=Math.min(0,...Y),yb=Math.max(0,...Y); const px=(xb-xa)*.12+.04,py=(yb-ya)*.12+1.5;xa-=px;xb+=px;ya-=py;yb+=py; const k=Math.max(0,n-3), ann=[]; [['WINDOW','#15b6a0',xa<1&&yb>0,xa,yb,'left','top'],['CONTEND','#2f7ed8',xb>1&&yb>0,xb,yb,'right','top'], ['FORCED-SPEND','#ec5a3c',xb>1&&ya<0,xb,ya,'right','bottom'],['REBUILD','#f0a91c',xa<1&&ya<0,xa,ya,'left','bottom']].forEach(q=>{ if(q[2]) ann.push({x:q[3],y:q[4],xref:'x',yref:'y',text:q[0],showarrow:false,xanchor:q[5],yanchor:q[6],font:{size:10,color:q[1]},opacity:.85});}); ann.push({x:X[n-1],y:Y[n-1],ax:X[n-1]-0.5*(X[n-1]-X[k]),ay:Y[n-1]-0.5*(Y[n-1]-Y[k]),xref:'x',yref:'y',axref:'x',ayref:'y',showarrow:true,arrowhead:2,arrowsize:1.3,arrowwidth:1.7,arrowcolor:dirc,text:''}); Plotly.newPlot('orbit',[{x:X,y:Y,mode:'lines+markers',line:{color:col,width:2.6,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.7}, marker:{color:col,size:s.map((d,i)=>5+7*(i/Math.max(1,n-1))),line:{color:dark?'#1b1e23':'#fff',width:0.6}}, text:yr,hovertemplate:'%{text}
payroll %{x:.2f}× lg · TAB %{y:+.1f}
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slot %{x} · %{customdata[1]:.1f} WAR
%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'ATL',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});