RRosternomics
𝕏

Braves ATL

‹ ›

GM: John Schuerholz

Overview

CONTEND ↗ rising
expensive & winning · year 6 in this regime · payroll 1.32× league · TAB +22.8
+22.8TAB — talent above budget1st/28
+15.6WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)1st/28
10.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars2nd/28
-2.0dead WAR — sub-replacement drag1st/28
5%dead money %1st/28
0.623win %1st/28
60.4roster fWAR1st/28
+8surplus $M (value vs cost)4th/28
$52Mpayroll $M5th/28

1997: made playoffs · 101–61. Ranks are vs the 28 teams that season.

Roster

CFKenny Lofton 122GAndruw Jones 57GDanny Bautista 1G
LFRyan Klesko 130GMichael Tucker 53GDanny Bautista 48G
RFMichael Tucker 102GAndruw Jones 95GDanny Bautista 10G
SSJeff Blauser 149GRafael Belliard 53GMike Mordecai 4G
2BMark Lemke 104GTony Graffanino 75GKeith Lockhart 20G
3BChipper Jones 152GMike Mordecai 19GKeith Lockhart 11G
1BFred McGriff 149GGreg Colbrunn 78GRyan Klesko 22G
STARTERSGreg Maddux 7.9WARJohn Smoltz 7.5WARDenny Neagle 5.4WARTom Glavine 4.2WARKevin Millwood 1.2WAR
CJavy Lopez 117GEddie Pérez 64GGreg Myers 40G
DHGreg Colbrunn 4GKeith Lockhart 4GJeff Blauser 1G
BULLPEN★ Mark Wohlers 33svAlan Embree 0hBrad Clontz 0hMike Bielecki 0hMike Cather 0hPaul Byrd 0hChad Fox 0hKerry Ligtenberg 0h
CJavy Lopez 117 · Eddie Pérez 64 · Greg Myers 40
1BFred McGriff 149 · Greg Colbrunn 78 · Ryan Klesko 22
2BMark Lemke 104 · Tony Graffanino 75 · Keith Lockhart 20
3BChipper Jones 152 · Mike Mordecai 19 · Keith Lockhart 11
SSJeff Blauser 149 · Rafael Belliard 53 · Mike Mordecai 4
LFRyan Klesko 130 · Michael Tucker 53 · Danny Bautista 48
CFKenny Lofton 122 · Andruw Jones 57 · Danny Bautista 1
RFMichael Tucker 102 · Andruw Jones 95 · Danny Bautista 10
DHGreg Colbrunn 4 · Keith Lockhart 4 · Jeff Blauser 1
SPGreg Maddux 7.9 · John Smoltz 7.5 · Denny Neagle 5.4 · Tom Glavine 4.2 · Kevin Millwood 1.2
BP★ Mark Wohlers 33 · Alan Embree 0 · Brad Clontz 0 · Mike Bielecki 0 · Mike Cather 0 · Paul Byrd 0 · Chad Fox 0 · Kerry Ligtenberg 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

1997 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Greg Maddux 31 FA-elig 337.9 6.8 +1.3
John Smoltz 30 FA-elig 367.5 7.0 +0.7
Denny Neagle 28 FA-elig 345.4 3.6 +1.9
Jeff Blauser 31 FA-elig 1515.2 4.0 +1.3
Kenny Lofton 30 FA-elig 1225.2 4.8 +0.5
Tom Glavine 31 FA-elig 334.2 5.0 -0.7
Javy Lopez 26 arb 1233.7 2.0 +1.7
Chipper Jones Jr. 25 arb 1573.7 1.5 +2.2
Andruw Jones 20 pre-arb 1533.7 0.2 +3.6
Michael Tucker 26 pre-arb 1383.0 0.2 +2.8
Mark Wohlers 27 FA-elig 711.8 3.0 -1.1
Tony Graffanino 25 pre-arb 1041.5 0.2 +1.3
Ryan Klesko 26 arb 1431.4 2.5 -1.0
Fred McGriff 33 FA-elig 1521.4 5.5 -4.1
Mark Lemke 31 FA-elig 1091.2 2.0 -0.7
Kevin Millwood 22 – 121.2 – –
Alan Embree 27 arb 660.9 0.2 +0.7
Keith Lockhart 32 arb 960.9 0.3 +0.6
Brad Clontz 26 pre-arb 510.5 0.2 +0.3
Danny Bautista 25 arb 640.5 0.2 +0.3
Terrell Wade 24 pre-arb 120.5 0.2 +0.3
Mike Cather 26 pre-arb 350.4 0.1 +0.3
Greg Colbrunn↔ MIN 27 arb 280.2 0.2 -0.0
Mike Bielecki 37 FA-elig 500.2 0.7 -0.5
Tim Spehr↔ KCR 30 FA-elig 80.1 0.1 +0.1
Chris Brock 27 – 70.1 – –
Ed Giovanola 28 – 140.1 – –
Randall Simon 22 – 130.0 – –
John LeRoy 22 – 1-0.0 – –
Tommy Gregg 33 – 13-0.0 – –
Rafael Belliard 35 FA-elig 72-0.1 0.2 -0.3
Kerry Ligtenberg 26 – 15-0.1 – –
Chad Fox 26 pre-arb 30-0.1 0.1 -0.3
Greg Myers↔ MIN 31 FA-elig 9-0.1 0.1 -0.2
Paul Byrd 26 pre-arb 31-0.1 0.2 -0.3
Joe Borowski↔ NYY 26 pre-arb 20-0.3 0.1 -0.5
Eddie Pérez 29 pre-arb 73-0.4 0.2 -0.6
Mike Mordecai 29 arb 61-0.8 0.2 -1.0

Key additions (new vs 1996)

PlayerfWAR
Kenny Lofton5.2
Michael Tucker3.0
Kevin Millwood1.2
Alan Embree0.9
Keith Lockhart0.9
Mike Cather0.4

Key subtractions (gone from 1996)

Player1996 fWAR
Marquis Grissom4.6
Steve Avery2.9
David Justice2.4
Greg McMichael1.7
Pedro Borbon Jr.0.9
Jerome Walton0.6

Current & Historical Payroll

1997 payroll
$51.8M

What the front office was committed to as of 1997, 1997–2003. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (14)

PlayerAgeSvc1997199819992000200120022003
John Smoltz309.000$7.0M$7.8M$7.8MFREE AGENT$8.0M$7.7M$10.7M
Greg Maddux3111.000$6.8M$9.6M$10.6M$11.1M$12.5M$13.1M$14.8M
Fred McGriff3311.000$5.5MFREE AGENT
Tom Glavine3110.000$5.0M$7.0M$7.0M$9.5M$9.5M$8.6MFREE AGENT
Kenny Lofton306.000$4.8MFREE AGENT
Jeff Blauser3110.000$4.0MFREE AGENT
Denny Neagle286.000$3.6M$4.5MFREE AGENT
Mark Wohlers276.000$3.0M$4.1M$5.2MFREE AGENT
Mark Lemke319.000$2.0MFREE AGENT
Mike Bielecki3713.000$708kFREE AGENT
Rafael Belliard3515.000$250k$250kFREE AGENT
Tim Spehr306.000$83kFREE AGENT
Greg Myers3110.000$73kFREE AGENT$506k
Tommy Gregg3310.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (8)

PlayerAgeSvc1997199819992000200120022003
Ryan Klesko265.000$2.5MFREE AGENT
Javy Lopez265.000$2.0MFREE AGENT
Chipper Jones Jr.254.000$1.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Keith Lockhart323.000$290kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Greg Colbrunn275.000$214kFREE AGENT
Alan Embree275.000$206kFREE AGENT
Danny Bautista254.000$200kARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Mordecai293.000$200kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (16)

PlayerAgeSvc1997199819992000200120022003
Michael Tucker262.000$250kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brad Clontz262.000$245kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Terrell Wade242.000$180kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Paul Byrd262.000$175kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eddie Pérez292.000$172kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tony Graffanino251.000$152kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andruw Jones201.000$152kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe Borowski262.000$150kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chad Fox260.000$150kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Cather260.000$150kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Brock270.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ed Giovanola282.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
John LeRoy22–—
Kerry Ligtenberg260.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kevin Millwood220.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Randall Simon220.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Braves 1997; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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Not enough history to chart.

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Pick a wider year range.

'; return; } const s=sm(raw,w),n=s.length,X=s.map(d=>Math.round(d[1]*100)/100),Y=s.map(d=>Math.round(d[2]*10)/10),yr=s.map(d=>d[0]); let xa=Math.min(1,...X),xb=Math.max(1,...X),ya=Math.min(0,...Y),yb=Math.max(0,...Y); const px=(xb-xa)*.12+.04,py=(yb-ya)*.12+1.5;xa-=px;xb+=px;ya-=py;yb+=py; const k=Math.max(0,n-3), ann=[]; [['WINDOW','#15b6a0',xa<1&&yb>0,xa,yb,'left','top'],['CONTEND','#2f7ed8',xb>1&&yb>0,xb,yb,'right','top'], ['FORCED-SPEND','#ec5a3c',xb>1&&ya<0,xb,ya,'right','bottom'],['REBUILD','#f0a91c',xa<1&&ya<0,xa,ya,'left','bottom']].forEach(q=>{ if(q[2]) ann.push({x:q[3],y:q[4],xref:'x',yref:'y',text:q[0],showarrow:false,xanchor:q[5],yanchor:q[6],font:{size:10,color:q[1]},opacity:.85});}); ann.push({x:X[n-1],y:Y[n-1],ax:X[n-1]-0.5*(X[n-1]-X[k]),ay:Y[n-1]-0.5*(Y[n-1]-Y[k]),xref:'x',yref:'y',axref:'x',ayref:'y',showarrow:true,arrowhead:2,arrowsize:1.3,arrowwidth:1.7,arrowcolor:dirc,text:''}); Plotly.newPlot('orbit',[{x:X,y:Y,mode:'lines+markers',line:{color:col,width:2.6,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.7}, marker:{color:col,size:s.map((d,i)=>5+7*(i/Math.max(1,n-1))),line:{color:dark?'#1b1e23':'#fff',width:0.6}}, text:yr,hovertemplate:'%{text}
payroll %{x:.2f}× lg · TAB %{y:+.1f}
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slot %{x} · %{customdata[1]:.1f} WAR
%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'ATL',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});