RRosternomics
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Braves ATL

‹ ›

GM: Alex Anthopoulos

Overview

WINDOW ↗ rising
cheap & winning · year 1 in this regime · payroll 0.7× league · TAB +9.9
+9.9TAB — talent above budget9th/30
+12.5WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)7th/30
9.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars4th/30
-3.7dead WAR — sub-replacement drag10th/30
31%dead money %12th/30
0.556win %10th/30
39.9roster fWAR10th/30
+44surplus $M (value vs cost)3rd/30
$91Mpayroll $M24th/30

2018: made playoffs · 90–72. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFEnder Inciarte 155GRonald Acuña Jr. 13GPeter Bourjos 3G
LFRonald Acuña Jr. 101GAdam Duvall 101GPreston Tucker 37G
RFNick Markakis 158GLane Adams 5GPreston Tucker 4G
SSDansby Swanson 136GCharlie Culberson 20GJohan Camargo 18G
2BOzzie Albies 157GCharlie Culberson 9GJohan Camargo 3G
3BJohan Camargo 114GRyan Flaherty 40GCharlie Culberson 20G
1BFreddie Freeman 161GLucas Duda 63GRyan Flaherty 7G
STARTERSMike Foltynewicz 3.3WARAníbal Sánchez 2.1WARSean Newcomb 1.5WARJulio Teheran 1.0WARKevin Gausman 0.9WAR
CKurt Suzuki 93GTyler Flowers 76GRené Rivera 29G
DHKurt Suzuki 4GNick Markakis 2GTyler Flowers 1G
BULLPEN★ Arodys Vizcaíno 16svDan Winkler 23hJonny Venters 15hShane Carle 14hJesse Biddle 12hA.J. Minter 12hBrad Brach 11hSam Freeman 9h
CKurt Suzuki 93 · Tyler Flowers 76 · René Rivera 29
1BFreddie Freeman 161 · Lucas Duda 63 · Ryan Flaherty 7
2BOzzie Albies 157 · Charlie Culberson 9 · Johan Camargo 3
3BJohan Camargo 114 · Ryan Flaherty 40 · Charlie Culberson 20
SSDansby Swanson 136 · Charlie Culberson 20 · Johan Camargo 18
LFRonald Acuña Jr. 101 · Adam Duvall 101 · Preston Tucker 37
CFEnder Inciarte 155 · Ronald Acuña Jr. 13 · Peter Bourjos 3
RFNick Markakis 158 · Lane Adams 5 · Preston Tucker 4
DHKurt Suzuki 4 · Nick Markakis 2 · Tyler Flowers 1
SPMike Foltynewicz 3.3 · Aníbal Sánchez 2.1 · Sean Newcomb 1.5 · Julio Teheran 1.0 · Kevin Gausman 0.9
BP★ Arodys Vizcaíno 16 · Dan Winkler 23 · Jonny Venters 15 · Shane Carle 14 · Jesse Biddle 12 · A.J. Minter 12 · Brad Brach 11 · Sam Freeman 9

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2018 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Freddie Freeman 28 FA-elig 1624.6 21.0 -5.4
Ronald Acuña Jr. 20 pre-arb 1114.4 0.5 +14.4
Ozzie Albies 21 pre-arb 1584.0 0.6 +13.0
Mike Foltynewicz 26 arb 313.3 2.2 +9.2
Ender Inciarte 27 arb 1563.2 4.7 +6.3
Johan Camargo 24 pre-arb 1343.2 0.6 +10.2
Nick Markakis 34 FA-elig 1622.5 11.0 -2.4
Aníbal Sánchez 34 FA-elig 252.1 1.0 +6.3
Tyler Flowers 32 FA-elig 822.0 4.0 +2.8
Dansby Swanson 24 pre-arb 1361.7 0.6 +5.1
Sean Newcomb 25 pre-arb 311.5 0.6 +4.6
A.J. Minter 24 pre-arb 651.4 0.6 +4.2
Charlie Culberson 29 FA-elig 1131.3 0.6 +3.7
Dan Winkler 28 arb 691.2 0.6 +3.4
Julio Teheran 27 FA-elig 311.0 8.2 -4.9
Kurt Suzuki 34 FA-elig 1051.0 3.5 -0.2
Kevin Gausman↔ BAL 27 arb 110.9 1.9 +1.1
Michael Soroka 20 – 50.6 0.4 +1.6
Shane Carle 26 pre-arb 530.5 0.6 +1.2
Touki Toussaint 22 – 80.4 0.1 +1.2
Luke Jackson 26 pre-arb 350.4 0.4 +0.9
Max Fried 24 pre-arb 140.4 0.3 +0.9
Jesse Biddle 26 pre-arb 600.3 0.5 +0.7
Brad Brach↔ BAL 32 FA-elig 270.3 2.0 -0.9
Arodys Vizcaíno 27 FA-elig 390.3 3.4 -2.5
Sam Freeman 31 FA-elig 630.3 1.1 -0.2
Jonny Venters↔ TBR 33 arb 280.2 0.2 +0.7
Lane Adams 28 arb 260.2 0.6 +0.1
Brandon McCarthy 34 FA-elig 150.1 11.5 -11.2
Danny Santana 27 arb 150.1 0.2 +0.1
Miguel Socolovich 31 pre-arb 40.1 0.0 +0.3
Chad Sobotka 24 – 140.1 0.1 +0.2
Bryse Wilson 20 – 30.1 0.1 +0.1
Lucas Duda↔ KCR 32 FA-elig 200.1 0.7 -0.4
Adam McCreery 25 pre-arb 10.0 0.0 +0.1
Luiz Gohara 21 pre-arb 90.0 0.6 -0.5
Rex Brothers 30 FA-elig 10.0 1.1 -1.1
Michael Reed 25 pre-arb 7-0.0 0.1 -0.2
Preston Tucker↔ CIN 27 arb 80-0.0 0.5 -0.6
José Ramírez 28 arb 7-0.0 0.6 -0.7
Dustin Peterson 23 – 2-0.0 0.0 -0.2
Josh Ravin 30 pre-arb 2-0.0 0.1 -0.2
Rio Ruiz 24 pre-arb 14-0.1 0.1 -0.3
Chris Stewart↔ ARI 36 FA-elig 5-0.1 0.4 -0.6
Chase Whitley 29 arb 1-0.1 0.8 -1.1
Matt Wisler↔ CIN 25 – 7-0.1 0.0 -0.4
Kolby Allard 20 – 3-0.1 0.1 -0.5
René Rivera↔ ANA 34 FA-elig 3-0.1 0.3 -0.6
Wes Parsons 25 – 1-0.1 0.0 -0.5
Peter Bourjos 31 FA-elig 36-0.2 1.0 -1.5
Lucas Sims↔ CIN 24 – 6-0.2 0.1 -0.6
Kyle Wright 22 – 4-0.2 0.1 -0.8
Evan Phillips↔ BAL 23 – 4-0.2 0.0 -0.9
José Bautista↔ NYM 37 FA-elig 12-0.3 0.1 -1.0
Carlos Pérez↔ TEX 27 – 8-0.3 0.1 -1.1
Ryan Flaherty 31 FA-elig 81-0.4 0.8 -2.1
Peter Moylan 39 FA-elig 39-0.4 0.6 -2.0
Adam Duvall↔ CIN 29 arb 33-0.6 0.2 -2.4

Key additions (new vs 2017)

PlayerfWAR
Ronald Acuña Jr.4.4
Aníbal Sánchez2.1
Charlie Culberson1.3
Kevin Gausman0.9
Michael Soroka0.6
Shane Carle0.5

Key subtractions (gone from 2017)

Player2017 fWAR
Jaime García1.6
Brandon Phillips0.9
Matt Adams0.5
Jim Johnson0.2
Akeel Morris0.1
Chase d'Arnaud0.1

Current & Historical Payroll

2018 payroll
$91.3M
2019 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2018, 2018–2024. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2018; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (13)

PlayerAgeSvc2018201920202021202220232024
Freddie Freeman287.033$21.0MFREE AGENT
Brandon McCarthy3411.122$11.5MFREE AGENT
Nick Markakis3412.000$11.0MFREE AGENT
Tyler Flowers326.148$4.0MFREE AGENT
Kurt Suzuki3410.112$3.5MFREE AGENT
Peter Bourjos318.000$1.0MFREE AGENT
Aníbal Sánchez3412.083$1.0MFREE AGENT
Ryan Flaherty316.000$750kFREE AGENT
Lucas Duda326.137$654kFREE AGENT
Peter Moylan398.003$575kFREE AGENT
Chris Stewart367.091$359kFREE AGENT
René Rivera346.070$255kFREE AGENT
José Bautista3712.165$54kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (13)

PlayerAgeSvc2018201920202021202220232024
Julio Teheran275.062$8.2MFREE AGENT
Ender Inciarte273.157$4.7MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Arodys Vizcaíno274.168$3.4MARB 3FREE AGENT
Brad Brach325.063$2.0MFREE AGENT
Kevin Gausman273.151$1.9MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rex Brothers304.078$1.1MARB 3FREE AGENT
Sam Freeman313.066$1.1MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chase Whitley293.099$800kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dan Winkler283.000$610kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
José Ramírez284.000$565kARB 3FREE AGENT
Preston Tucker273.000$466kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Danny Santana273.111$160kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jonny Venters335.000$153kFREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (32)

PlayerAgeSvc2018201920202021202220232024
Mike Foltynewicz262.163$2.2MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Lane Adams280.151$575kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Charlie Culberson292.084$575kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dansby Swanson241.047$565kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
A.J. Minter240.040$555kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ozzie Albies210.062$555kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Johan Camargo240.137$555kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luiz Gohara210.121$555kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sean Newcomb250.114$555kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Shane Carle260.032$555kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ronald Acuña Jr.200.000$545kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jesse Biddle261.000$486kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Soroka200.000$448kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luke Jackson261.056$372kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Max Fried240.050$293kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adam Duvall292.096$154kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Reed250.084$132kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kolby Allard200.000$126kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carlos Pérez272.021$94kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Touki Toussaint220.000$91kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bryse Wilson200.000$91kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Wright220.000$88kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rio Ruiz240.083$78kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Ravin301.151$64kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Lucas Sims240.062$59kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chad Sobotka240.000$56kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Evan Phillips230.000$39kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Wisler251.161$35kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Miguel Socolovich311.085$29kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Wes Parsons250.000$15kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adam McCreery250.003$9kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dustin Peterson230.000$9kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Braves 2018; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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Pick a wider year range.

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slot %{x} · %{customdata[1]:.1f} WAR
%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'ATL',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});